Quantitative Risk Assessment of FMD Virus Transmission via Water

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a viral disease of domesticated and wild cloven-hoofed animals. FMD virus is known to spread by direct contact between infected and susceptible animals, by animal products such as meat and milk, by the airborne route, and mechanical transfer on people, wild animals, birds, and by vehicles. During the outbreak of 2001 in the Netherlands, milk from dairy cattle was illegally discharged into the sewerage as a consequence of transport prohibition. This may lead to contaminated discharges of biologically treated and raw sewage in surface water that is given to cattle to drink. The objective of the present study was to assess the probability of infecting dairy cows that were drinking FMD virus contaminated surface water due to illegal discharges of contaminated milk. So, the following data were collected from literature: FMD virus inactivation in aqueous environments, FMD virus concentrations in milk, dilution in sewage water, virus removal by sewage treatment, dilution in surface water, water consumption of cows, size of a herd in a meadow, and dose-response data for ingested FMD virus by cattle. In the case of 1.6 x 10(2) FMD virus per milliliter in milk and discharge of treated sewage in surface water, the probability of infecting a herd of cows was estimated to be 3.3 x 10(-7) to 8.5 x 10(-5), dependent on dilution in the receiving surface water. In the case of discharge of raw sewage, all probabilities of infection were 100 times higher. In the case of little dilution in small rivers, the high level of 8.5 x 10(-3) is reached. For 10(4) times higher FMD virus concentrations in milk, the probabilities of infecting a herd of cows are high in the case of discharge of treated sewage (3.3 x 10(-3) to 5.7 x 10(-1)) and very high in the case of discharge of raw sewage (0.28-1.0). It can be concluded that illegal and uncontrolled discharges of contaminated milk into the sewerage system may lead to high risks to other cattle farms at 6-50 km distance of the location of discharge within one day. This clearly underlines current measures that prohibit such discharges, and also asks for strict control. This risk assessment clearly demonstrated the potential significance of FMD virus transmission via water, and the results will be useful on an international scale, and could also serve as a basis for other FMD risk-assessment models.     

Relationships between leadership and professionals' job attitudes and perceptions: Comparison of two leadership models

The aim of this study was to investigate the power of the Average Leadership Style (ALS) and Vertical Dyad Linkage (VDL) models of leadership in explaining relationships between leader's initiating structure behaviour and consideration behaviour, and subordinates' attitudes and perceptions. The considered dependent variables were five facets of job satisfaction, two role stress variables (role conflict and ambiguity), one role strain indicator (job tension), and four dimensions of workteam climate. The relationships were investigated in two occupational samples comprising 127 family physicians and 155 nurses working in 28 Primary Health Care Teams. Within and between analysis (WABA) and contextual analysis were applied in order to determine the appropriate level of analysis (group as expected from ALS or individual as expected from VDL) for studying the relationships between leader consideration and initiating structure behaviours and the dependent variables. The results obtained showed the prevalence of the VDL model in most of the cases, although two of the relationships studied fitted the ALS model.     

The ‘Extended’ Atkinson family: The class of multiplicatively decomposable inequality measures,and some new graphical procedures for analysts

This paper introduces and characterises a class of inequality measures which extends the Atkinson family. This class contains canonical forms of all aggregative inequality measures, each bounded above by one, provides a new dominance criterion for ordering distributions in terms of inequality and offers some new graphical procedures for analysts. The crucial axiom for the characterisation is an alternative to the standard additive decomposition property that we call ‘multiplicative decomposability,’ where the within-group component is a generalised weighted mean with weights summing exactly to one. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Supply Chain Conflict Due to Store Brands: The Value of Wholesale Price Commitment in a Retail Supply Chain*

Store brands are of increasing importance in retail supply chains, often causing channel conflict, as the retailer's product directly competes with the manufacturer's national brand. Extant research on the resulting channel interactions either assumes the national brand manufacturer can credibly commit to maintaining a wholesale price or that he lacks such ability. However, these two scenarios imply very different supply chain interactions, as only a national brand manufacturer with commitment ability can strategically adjust a national brand wholesale price to prevent a store brand introduction by the retailer. We specifically analyze the impact of this assumption on the manufacturer, the retailer, and the customers. We determine when long‐term contracts that provide the manufacturer with such commitment ability can improve supply chain profitability.     

Gender gaps in STEM in Japanese academia: The impact of research productivity,outside offers,and home life on pay

To understand differences in labor market outcomes between genders, economists must examine a complex array of potentially significant factors, such as institutional context, productivity differences, child-bearing and home production, and bargaining behavior. Many of these factors are not well captured by standard data sources. We use a new survey of academics in Japan to better understand the sources of gender pay differences. We find a 6% pay gap which persists when we control for research productivity, despite an institutional context shaped by explicit salary tables. We do not find a motherhood wage penalty, and the gender salary we document is not affected by differences in outside job offers.     

International Adaptation of a Treatment Program for Situational Couple Violence

Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) is a serious international problem. Stith, S. M., McCollum, E. E., and Rosen, K. H. received funding from the US National Institute of Mental Health to develop and test a program for couples experiencing IPV: Domestic Violence Focused Couples Treatment (DVFCT). This article provides an overview of DVFCT, and presents three case studies illustrating how DVFCT has been adapted for use in Colombia, Iran, and Finland. This article emphasizes the need for adapting treatment models to be culturally informed, provides practice-based evidence for DVFCT as a treatment model, and highlights the importance of careful screening and assessment when working with couples who have experienced violence, no matter the country or location where treatment is being conducted.     

L’évolution démographique et l’automatisation,deux enjeux mondiaux pour l’avenir du travail

Les auteurs s'interrogent sur le nombre des emplois qu'il conviendra de créer demain pour répondre aux besoins engendrés par l'évolution démographique, économique et technologique. Ils font le calcul pour la période 2020-2030, en se fondant sur des projections de croissance démographique et de taux d'activité et en fixant des taux de chômage cibles. Les résultats sont ventilés par âge et par sexe. Les auteurs tiennent compte également de l'influence du niveau de revenu du pays et de l'automatisation. D'après leurs projections, les besoins de création d'emplois atteindront 340 millions en 2020-2030, et ils seront imputables à l'évolution démographique bien plus qu'à l'automatisation.     

‘Systemic thinking’, ‘regenerative culture’, and new forms of prefigurative politics: challenges for the global left

ABSTRACT

One of the aspects of the current crisis of the Left is an ‘epistemological blindness’ that prevents it from identifying opportunities for its own renewal. That includes the dismissal of the contribution of prefigurative forms of collective action which do not fit its institutionalized orthodoxies. Their most significant expression is a range of grassroots initiatives based on ‘systemic thinking’ and aimed at promoting a ‘regenerative culture’. It includes non-capitalist economic initiatives, such as those of the transition movement, social and solidarity economy and the Global Ecovillage Network, as well as of the temporary communities created by Occupy Wall Street movement and the Dakota Access Pipeline protests. They regard social polarization, patriarchy, and the crisis of democracy as interconnected dimensions of a civilizational dysfunction that asks for whole-systems solutions. Such approach, if adopted by the Left, may contribute to its renewal and political strengthening.     

The Use of Telematics Devices to Improve Automobile Insurance Rates

Most automobile insurance databases contain a large number of policyholders with zero claims. This high frequency of zeros may reflect the fact that some insureds make little use of their vehicle, or that they do not wish to make a claim for small accidents in order to avoid an increase in their premium, but it might also be because of good driving. We analyze information on exposure to risk and driving habits using telematics data from a pay‐as‐you‐drive sample of insureds. We include distance traveled per year as part of an offset in a zero‐inflated Poisson model to predict the excess of zeros. We show the existence of a learning effect for large values of distance traveled, so that longer driving should result in higher premiums, but there should be a discount for drivers who accumulate longer distances over time due to the increased proportion of zero claims. We confirm that speed limit violations and driving in urban areas increase the expected number of accident claims. We discuss how telematics information can be used to design better insurance and to improve traffic safety.     

When implicit prejudice does not predict explicit prejudice: Spanish version of the Concern with Acting Prejudiced scale / Cuando el prejuicio implícito no predice el explícito: versión española de la escala Concern with Acting Prejudiced

The aim of this research was to adapt and validate the Concern with Acting Prejudiced (CAP) scale for a Spanish sample. This measure evaluates concern about appearing prejudiced to others or oneself and the motivation not to deviate from personal egalitarian standards. First, we completed the translation and an item content validity analysis. Then, in Study 1 (N = 198), we conducted an exploratory factor analysis. In Study 2 (N = 383), we conducted a confirmatory analysis of the unifactorial structure of the Spanish version of the scale and examined its validity. In Study 3 (N = 89), we explored the moderating role of participants’ concern with acting prejudiced in the relation between implicit prejudice and explicit prejudice. The results confirmed the unifactorial structure of the scale, its appropriate psychometric properties and its predictive validity. Moreover, we confirmed that the CAP moderated the relation between implicit and explicit prejudice. In participants with a low concern with acting prejudiced, implicit prejudice was positively related with modern prejudice; in participants with a high concern with acting prejudiced, these variables were not related.