Predictors of Treatment Outcome Among Asian Pathological Gamblers (PGs): Clinical,Behavioural, Demographic,and Treatment Process Factors

Research on predictors of treatment outcome among pathological gamblers (PGs) is inconclusive and dominated by studies from Western countries. Using a prospective longitudinal design, the current study examined demographic, clinical, behavioural and treatment programme predictors of gambling frequency at 3, 6 and 12-months, among PGs treated at an addiction clinic in Singapore. Measures included the Hospital anxiety and depression scale, gambling symptom assessment scale (GSAS), personal well-being index (PWI), treatment perception questionnaire and gambling readiness to change scale. Treatment response in relation to changes in symptom severity, personal wellbeing and abstinence were also assessed. Abstinence rates were 38.6, 46.0 and 44.4 % at 3, 6 and 12-months respectively. Significant reductions in gambling frequency, GSAS, and improvement in PWI were reported between baseline and subsequent outcome assessments, with the greatest change occurring in the initial three months. No demographic, clinical, behavioural or treatment programme variable consistently predicted outcome at all three assessments, though treatment satisfaction was the most frequent significant predictor. However, being unemployed, having larger than average debts, poor treatment satisfaction and attending fewer sessions at the later stages of treatment were associated with significantly poorer outcomes, up to 1-year after initiating treatment. These findings show promise for the effectiveness of a CBT-based treatment approach for the treatment of predominantly Chinese PGs. Clinical implications and suggestions for future research are discussed. Taken together, the findings suggest early treatment satisfaction is paramount in improving short-term outcomes, with baseline gambling behaviour and treatment intensity playing a more significant role in the longer term.     

100 key research questions for the post‐2015 development agenda

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) herald a new phase for international development. This article presents the results of a consultative exercise to collaboratively identify 100 research questions of critical importance for the post‐2015 international development agenda. The final shortlist is grouped into nine thematic areas and was selected by 21 representatives of international and non‐governmental organisations and consultancies, and 14 academics with diverse disciplinary expertise from an initial pool of 704 questions submitted by 110 organisations based in 34 countries. The shortlist includes questions addressing long‐standing problems, new challenges and broader issues related to development policies, practices and institutions. Collectively, these questions are relevant for future development‐related research priorities of governmental and non‐governmental organisations worldwide and could act as focal points for transdisciplinary research collaborations.     

‘Je suis socialiste et quinziste’: rugby,wine and socialism in the Aude since 1976

In the Languedoc, the intersections between rugby, wine and socialism give telling insights into the value and significance of regional identity. At the end of the 1970s, the Languedoc's wine industry and rugby were facing up to the challenges of modernisation; the responses which emerged drew upon the principles of regional identity drawn from the ‘banal nationalism’ of wine-drinking, left-voting rugby players in local administrations and at the head of powerful trade unions. The cross-over between board-room and locker-room helped to accent regional responses to change and modernization, ensuring that regional heritage remained potent and ready to be communicated.     

THE EXTENT OF THE MARKET AND INTEGRATION THROUGH FACTOR MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM WHOLESALE ELECTRICITY

We document the influence of factor markets in determining the extent of the market, appealing to the Mundell hypothesis that trade in goods and factor markets are substitutes. We confirm this influence using the U.S. wholesale market for electric power. Although the Eastern, Western, and Texas regions cannot trade electricity, inputs such as natural gas move freely across these regions. Through a set of price transmission ratios, and a supply model for natural gas, we find regional electricity shocks do propagate across regions. We conclude output markets institutionally in autarky achieve modest degrees of economic integration through factor markets. (JEL C32, L94, Q41)     

Dynamic inference for non-Markov transition probabilities under random right censoring

The main contribution of this article is the verification of weak convergence of a general non-Markov (NM) state transition probability estimator by Titman, which has not yet been done for any other general NM estimator. A similar theorem is shown for the bootstrap, yielding resampling-based inference methods for statistical functionals. Formulas of the involved covariance functions are presented in detail. Particular applications include the conditional expected length of stay in a specific state, given occupation of another state in the past, and the construction of time-simultaneous confidence bands for the transition probabilities. The expected lengths of stay in a two-sample liver cirrhosis dataset are compared and confidence intervals for their difference are constructed. With borderline significance and in comparison to the placebo group, the treatment group has an elevated expected length of stay in the healthy state given an earlier disease state occupation. In contrast, the Aalen-Johansen (AJ) estimator-based confidence interval, which relies on a Markov assumption, leads to a drastically different conclusion. Also, graphical illustrations of confidence bands for the transition probabilities demonstrate the biasedness of the AJ estimator in this data example. The reliability of these results is assessed in a simulation study.     

How Co-operative is Co-operative Purchasing in Smaller Firms?: Evidence from UK Engineering SMEs

Most SMEs do not try to engage in co-operative purchasing arrangements, and even those that do don’t handle them very well. Examining a sample of SME engineering firms from the UK Midlands for signs of more advanced practice, the authors identify three types of behaviour: firms with deliberate strategies (where co-operative purchasing is a consciously-designed and long-term part of management policy); firms with close ties with their suppliers but which still operate fundamentally adversarial policies (where, despite some development of practice, defensive, short-term and ‘low-trust’ attitudes still predominate) and those whose strategies, maybe of long standing, ‘just happened’ and are described as still emergent. The article analyses these positions to yield lessons for managers, recognising that, as firms grow, emergent strategies will need replacing with something more codified.     

俄罗斯进军科技产业

曾押注Skype和Facebook的硅谷风投家又开始考虑另一个心跳赌局——让俄罗斯多样化发展,摆脱对石油产业的依赖。俄罗斯总统德米特里．安．梅德韦杰夫已将经济多样化摆到其经济政策的核心位置,并开始在莫斯科郊区建造一个被称为俄罗斯硅谷的大型科技园。