The Emergence of Associational Life in México’s Wild West: Pioneering Civic Participation,Sea Turtle Conservation,and Environmental Awareness in Baja California Sur

This research explores the contributions of the sea turtle conservation movement in Baja California Sur (B.C.S.), Mexico, to the growth of associational life in the state. Mexico has historically been known as a country with a traditionally weak associational life. Yet, the activities of sea turtle NGOs and community groups presented a unique case study to better understand the social, political, and strategic factors that have contributed to voluntary civic engagement and the environmental successes of the movement. Through 799 interviews and surveys with public stakeholders, this research utilized Sabet’s (Democratization 2:410–432, 2008) focus on political opportunity, efforts to reform informal rules, and supportive social networks, as an explanatory framework to help describe the emergence of associational life. We found that the sea turtle conservation movement in B.C.S. has become accessible to a diversity of interests and individuals. We found unexpected results in the extent of federal environmental agency complaisance in regard to the involvement of NGOs in conservation programs and environmental policy decisions that have traditionally been the sole domain of the Government of Mexico.     

Sequence Comparison Via Alignment and Gibbs Sampling: A Formal Analysis of the Emergence of the Modern Sociological Article

Various substantive literatures in sociology seek small regularities in sequences: turning points in the life course, catalytic moments in organizational change, sharp turns in occupational trajectories, and the like. Commonly these are turning points, but they may also be simple local patterns. This paper reports a method for discovering such regularities even when they are quite faint, applying that method to rhetorical regularities in sociological articles. The paper begins by analyzing the overall sequence structure of such articles and then gives a basic introduction to Gibbs sampling, one member of the broader class of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. It then reports an algorithm employing Gibbs sampling to find local sequence regularities and applies that algorithm to demonstrate the subsequence regularities present in sociological articles. Substantively, the paper shows that the rhetorical structure of sociological articles changed from one pattern to another in the period 1895–1965 and that certain faint but standard rhetorical subsequences became characteristic of articles in the later period. Methodologically, it introduces a broad class of methods that provide effective approaches to a number of previously intractable statistical questions.     

A simple monotone process with application to radiocarbon-dated depth chronologies

Summary.  We propose a new and simple continuous Markov monotone stochastic process and use it to make inference on a partially observed monotone stochastic process. The process is piecewise linear, based on additive independent gamma increments arriving in a Poisson fashion. An independent increments variation allows very simple conditional simulation of sample paths given known values of the process. We take advantage of a reparameterization involving the Tweedie distribution to provide efficient computation. The motivating problem is the establishment of a chronology for samples taken from lake sediment cores, i.e. the attribution of a set of dates to samples of the core given their depths, knowing that the age–depth relationship is monotone. The chronological information arises from radiocarbon (¹⁴C) dating at a subset of depths. We use the process to model the stochastically varying rate of sedimentation.     

The spatial structure of epidemic emergence: geographical aspects of poliomyelitis in north-eastern USA, July-October 1916

Summary.  The great epidemic of poliomyelitis which swept New York City and surrounding territory in the summer of 1916 eclipsed all previous global experience of the disease. We draw on epidemiological information that is included in the seminal US Public Health Bulletin 91, 'Epidemiologic studies of poliomyelitis in New York City and the northeastern United States during the year 1916' (Washington DC, 1918), to re-examine the spatial structure of the epidemic. For the main phase of transmission of the epidemic, July–October 1916, it is shown that the maximum concentration of activity of poliomyelitis occurred within a 128-km radius of New York City. Although the integrity of the poliomyelitis cluster was maintained up to approximately 500 km from the metropolitan focus, the level and rate of propagation of disease declined with distance from the origin of the epidemic. Finally, it is shown that the geographical transmission of the epidemic in north-eastern USA probably followed a process of mixed contagious–hierarchical diffusion.