Assessing multiple prior models of behaviour under ambiguity

The recent spate of theoretical models of behaviour under ambiguity can be partitioned into two sets: those involving multiple priors and those not involving multiple priors. This paper provides an experimental investigation into the first set. Using an appropriate experimental interface we examine the fitted and predictive power of the various theories. We first estimate subject-by-subject, and then estimate and predict using a mixture model over the contending theories. The individual estimates suggest that 24% of our 149 subjects have behaviour consistent with Expected Utility, 56% with the Smooth Model, 11% with Rank Dependent Expected Utility and 9% with the Alpha Model; these figures are close to the mixing proportions obtained from the mixture estimates where the respective posterior probabilities of each of them being of the various types are 25%, 50%, 20% and 5%; and using the predictions 22%, 53%, 22% and 3%. The Smooth model appears the best.     

Italian Children's Understanding of War: A Domain-Specific Approach

Studies of children's conceptions of war, which have been carried out up to now mainly by asking for a definition of war and associating it with other notions, have found few age-related changes after the age of 6. Considering the complexity of the concept, and its embeddedness in the political conceptual domain, which emerges at around 11 years, we expect that greater differences should emerge if children's ideas on the causes and consequences of war, and the actors involved, are carefully assessed. Semi-structured interviews carried out with a total of 80 Italian children from 2nd to 8th grades confirmed this hypothesis. Many 2nd graders described war as a clash between collectives without structure, attributing all decisions about starting, the development of, and ending a war to the individual fighters and explaining these decisions (when they did) as due to emotions such as hatred, envy, revenge, or being tired or unwilling to fight any longer. Most 6th and 8th graders depicted war as a clash between nation-states, attributing decisions about its starting and ending to political authorities on the basis of political and economic reasons, and the actual fighting of battles to an organized army collaborating with, or subordinate to, political authorities. Many 2nd and 4th graders also showed a mixed pattern of answers, involving both political authorities and individual fighters, thus showing that the transition from the rudimentary backward conception to the more advanced one occurs through the piecemeal addition and deletion of concepts and beliefs.     

Overcoming the Glass Barriers: Reflection and Action in the ‘Women to the Top’ Programme

Numerous equality programmes have been launched with the aim of promoting a more gender equal work life, yet little substantial action has been reported. This article presents a study of the Women to the Top programme in Sweden, supported by the European Union (EU) and aimed at promoting more women into top management positions. The research suggests that large‐scale projects assembling such heterogeneous actors as industry representatives, politicians and scholars tend to generate further reflection and discussion rather than promoting adequate and highly needed action. Drawing upon Brunsson's distinction between action rationality and decision rationality, the relatively modest effects of large‐scale equality programmes are examined, not in terms of a lack of commitment or competence on the part of the participants but as a matter of the disjunction between reflection and action. Reconciling reflection and action, that is, emphasizing not only reflection on gender inequality but also privileging various forms of practical action (such as new policies, the appointment of female managers, restructuring gendered wage inequalities or new recruitment procedures), is therefore a top priority for policymakers desiring more substantial changes in the gendered outline of industry.     

Some characterizations of discrete distributions based on weak records

Let X ₁, X ₂,... be iid random variables (rv's) with the support on nonnegative integers and let (W _n , n≥0) denote the corresponding sequence of weak record values. We obtain new characterization of geometric and some other discrete distributions based on different forms of partial independence of rv's W _n and W _n+r —W _n for some fixed n≥0 and r≥1. We also prove that rv's W ₀ and W _n+1 —W _n have identical distribution if and only if (iff) the underlying distribution is geometric.     

Unemployment Insurance and Underemployment

Should unemployment insurance (UI) systems provide coverage for underemployed job seekers? Based on a statistical analysis of Norwegian unemployment spells, we conclude that the answer to this question is yes. Allowing insured job seekers to retain partial UI benefits during periods of insufficient part‐time work not only reduces UI expenditures during the part‐time work period, but it also unambiguously reduces the time until a regular self‐supporting job is found. Probable explanations are that even small temporary part‐time jobs provide access to useful vacancy information and that such jobs are used by employers as a screening device when hiring from the unemployment pool.     

The satisfaction of Finnish adoptive parents with statutory pre-adoption counselling in inter-country adoptions

We examined how satisfied Finnish adoptive parents were with statutory pre-adoption counselling in inter-country adoptions. The data were collected through the Finnish Adoption Study using a retrospective survey measuring satisfaction with received pre-adoption counselling. All adoptive parents with a child under the age of 18, adopted from abroad between the years 1990 and 2007, were included. The sample of the study comprised parents of 1451 children and a total response rate of 55.7% was achieved. The data consisted of self-scored reports of satisfaction as well as open answer questions. Parent satisfaction and associated variables were analysed using chi-square and multiple logistic regression. Of the respondents, 81.7% reported satisfaction with the pre-adoption counselling they had received. The level of satisfaction was stable over time and did not differ according to service provider, whereas family type and sending country were associated with satisfaction. However the explanations for satisfaction were different for those services provided in units specialized in adoption and for those provided by municipal child protection services. The components found to explain satisfaction and dissatisfaction were experience, adoption knowledge, and attitude of the social worker, service accessibility and availability issues, as well as the content of the pre-adoption counselling offered.     

The Relationship Between Infant Holdout and Gives,and Pointing

We provide an analysis of holdout and giving (Ho&G) behaviours in prelinguistic infants and investigate their relationship with index finger pointing. The frequency of Ho&Gs at 10 and 11 months along with the length of the following social interaction correlated with index finger pointing at 12 months. We conclude that Ho&Gs are a precursor to index finger pointing and that this provides support for social‐pragmatic approaches to communicative development.     

The Role of School Contexts in Adolescents' Weight‐loss Behaviors and Self‐perceptions of Overweight

Using the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health and multilevel modeling, this study investigates the role high school social contexts play in the development of adolescents' weight‐loss behaviors and overweight self‐perceptions. Overall, the results indicate that there is an important association between adolescents' weight‐loss behaviors and self‐perceptions of overweight and the weight‐related context of their school. For example, both adolescent boys and girls are less likely to engage in weight‐loss behaviors when overweight is prevalent among their same‐sex schoolmates. However, gender differences are also found. For example, while adolescent boys' self‐perceptions of overweight are significantly associated with their same‐sex schoolmates' characteristics and behaviors, this is not the case for adolescent girls. Overall, these findings suggest that meso‐level social contexts—such as schools—may be particularly important to how individuals incorporate macro‐level beliefs or values—such as gendered body ideals—into their own behaviors and self‐concepts.