Non‐Parametric Estimation of the Conditional Distribution of the Interjumping Times for Piecewise‐Deterministic Markov Processes

This paper presents a non‐parametric method for estimating the conditional density associated to the jump rate of a piecewise‐deterministic Markov process. In our framework, the estimation needs only one observation of the process within a long time interval. Our method relies on a generalization of Aalen's multiplicative intensity model. We prove the uniform consistency of our estimator, under some reasonable assumptions related to the primitive characteristics of the process. A simulation study illustrates the behaviour of our estimator.     

Nowcasting GDP in Real Time: A Density Combination Approach

In this article, we use U.S. real-time data to produce combined density nowcasts of quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, using a system of three commonly used model classes. We update the density nowcast for every new data release throughout the quarter, and highlight the importance of new information for nowcasting. Our results show that the logarithmic score of the predictive densities for U.S. GDP growth increase almost monotonically, as new information arrives during the quarter. While the ranking of the model classes changes during the quarter, the combined density nowcasts always perform well relative to the model classes in terms of both logarithmic scores and calibration tests. The density combination approach is superior to a simple model selection strategy and also performs better in terms of point forecast evaluation than standard point forecast combinations.     

Public meetings as sources of citizen input: Comparing attendees with citizens at large

Although public meetings are the most frequently used method for obtaining citizen input into public decision-making, there is little systematic evidence comparing attendees with citizens at large. This paper addresses this gap in the literature by analyzing results from a series of public meetings and a random-sample telephone survey. The public meetings and telephone survey were conducted in Hillsborough County, Florida to obtain citizen input for the purpose of establishing spending priorities for more than $39 million in federal block grant funds. Findings include representation at public meetings on a number of factors, including race, Hispanic ethnicity, and low-income status. Attendees favor redistributive activities more often than citizens at large; however, both attendees and the general public agree on the importance of funding activities serving certain vulnerable populations, including seniors, persons with disabilities, and victims of domestic violence.     

Location of Public Goods and the Calculus of Voting: The Seattle Monorail Referendum*

Objectives. In this article we explore how the geographic location of a proposed public good on the ballot in a local referendum influences voting turnout. We argue that voters who live farther away from the good, and are thus likely to bear the cost of the good but have no access to it, would be more motivated to turn out in the election. Drawing on the cost‐orientation hypothesis, or negativity effect, “that people are more strongly motivated to avoid losses than to approach gains,” we expect these voters to derive higher expressive benefits from the act of voting relative to those of voters located closer to the good. Methods. We examine voting turnout in the 2002 referendum in the City of Seattle on the proposed construction of a monorail. We conduct our study at the precinct level using spatial tools of analysis. We evaluate the effect of accessibility on turnout by means of a curvilinear model that incorporates demographic and political variables. Results. We find that voting turnout is determined partly by accessibility. Turnout is higher in precincts located farther away from the monorail line than in precincts located relatively closer to the line. Partisanship conditions this effect. Conclusions. This study provides tentative support for linking voter turnout to the negativity effect via expressive benefits. Voters' location in relation to a public good may affect directly their political behavior by means of their perceived net gains or losses from the good.     

Gendering of success: fashion designers in designer stories in the Finnish lifestyle magazine Gloria*

Fashion journalism is part of the fashion system that legitimizes and reproduces the creativity, celebrity status, and symbolic power of fashion designers. This article examines the gendering of the success of fashion designers in designer stories in the Finnish lifestyle magazine Gloria. The material consists of 21 stories about designers published in 2013–2014. They are analyzed by applying a multimodal close reading that takes into account the dialogic relationship between written text and images. The analysis highlights the gendered representation of success: male designers emerge differently from women designers as glamorous personas and successful professionals. First, male designers are related to a grand tradition and presented as designers in the own right, whereas women designers are mostly depicted as continuers of a man’s work or a family business; second, many women designers are presented as designers of one particular hit item; third, women’s designership is presented as work and business instead of genuine creative art; and fourth, women designers are presented as more approachable and communicative human beings than men both in verbal and in visual expression. Hence, success is produced in a way that emphasizes the male designers’ visionary characteristics and decreases the grandeur of the women’s designership.     

“What Will My Friends Think?” Social Consequences for Danish Victims of Sexual Assaults in Peer Groups

Being exposed to sexual assaults has numerous psychological and social consequences, which may interfere with the adolescent’s still-ongoing development. This article focuses on social consequences for adolescents exposed to sexual assault by someone from their peer group.

Participants were 148 in number and 15–18 year olds (M = 16.34 years, 90.5% female) from Centre for Victims of Sexual Assault’s “Youth Programme.”

A mixed methods design combined extensive survey data collected from the 148 adolescents and five case stories. Almost half of the assaults (47.4%) were committed by someone from the victim’s social circle who was not a family member. Only 30.5% of these victims reported the assault to the police. Fear of social consequences was the main reason for not reporting. The majority of the participants described failure to thrive in school in the aftermath of the assault, for example, because the assailant attended the same school. Result furthermore showed how social relations can be complicated due to an assault and subsequent reactions, which can result in isolation for the victim and exclusion from their peer group.

Sexual assaults in peer groups have great impact on the victim’s well-being. Understanding and support from peers is of the utmost importance. Implications for practice are discussed.     

Participants’ views on the strengths and limitations of drug court: Recommendations to enhance assessment and treatment of mental illnesses

ABSTRACT

Since 1989, drug courts have provided an alternative to incarceration for arrestees who have a substance use disorder. Previous research has suggested that participants who graduate from the program are less likely to recidivate than those who are terminated from the program. The majority of research on drug courts is quantitative; therefore, the benefits of qualitative methods are not fully seen in the literature. This qualitative study developed an in-depth understanding of participants’ (n = 42) views on the strengths and limitations of a Midwestern drug court. Two themes emerged from the data. First, participants felt that the drug court promoted camaraderie, which enhanced their motivation for change and supported them in graduating from the program. Second, participants felt that the drug court did not adequately treat their mental illnesses, which for some resulted in relapse and was perceived as a barrier to graduating from the program. Recommendations for drug court practice are discussed.