Some Multiple Decision Procedures for Comparing Several Population Proportions

In this article, comparison of several population proportions using multiple decision approach is studied. The probability of the order of the sample proportions matching with the order of the population proportions is being controlled. A related multiple comparison procedure with a control is also discussed. For ranking the proportions in multinomial distribution, the simultaneous confidence interval is constructed and used for the ranking. Some examples are used to illustrate the multiple decision procedures discussed in this paper.     

A Comparison of Spatiotemporal Surveillance Methods for Nonhomogeneous Change Size

Spatiotemporal surveillance, especially in detection of emerging outbreaks is of particular importance. When an outbreak spreads across some areas, the incidence rate at the center of the outbreak area might be expected to be much higher than the rate at its edge. However, to the best of our knowledge, all existing methods assume a uniformly increasing rate across the entire area of the outbreak. The purpose of this study is to compare the performance of the spatiotemporal surveillance methods such as multivariate cumulative sum (MCUSUM) or multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) when the changes in size are nonhomogeneous. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to examine the properties of these spatiotemporal surveillance methods and compared them in terms of the detection speed and the identification rate under various scenarios. The results showed that when nonhomogeneous change sizes are involved, the MCUSUM method taking into account spatial nonhomogeneity of increase rates yields a better identification than the method ignoring such change size pattern although the detection speeds are similar. Further, a case study for the detection of male thyroid cancer data in New Mexico in the United States was performed to demonstrate the applicability of these methods.     

The Next Decade in Career Counseling: Cocoon Maintenance or Metamorphosis?

The authors, using a cocoon maintenance or metamorphosis metaphor, articulate the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats, and future vision for career counseling. Major strengths in career counseling include the growth and development of career theory, research, and practice. Weaknesses are identified in terms of career counseling practices that maintain localized career standards. Opportunities exist for the profession to assist clients in redefining their careers on the basis of ownership and life stories. The continued devaluation of career counseling in counselor education programs is seen as a threat. The authors conclude with their vision for the future for the discipline and profession of career counseling.     

GENDER DIFFERENCES IN URBAN NEIGHBORING

Gender differences in neighboring are investigated using survey data from respondents in 81 Nashville neighborhoods. Of primary concern is why women neighbor more than men. Secondarily, the effects of life-cycle stage and socioeconomic status (SES) on neighboring are explored. Of these three, gender most strongly predicts neighboring activities, even with full and part time employment controlled. Life-cycle stage and SES are about equivalent in strength, although they significantly influence different neighboring measures. Findings suggest that the definition in American gender roles of women as bearers of emotional and social responsibilities accounts for their more extensive neighboring.     

A Methodology for More Efficient Tail Area Sampling with Discrete Probability Distributions

Monte Carlo Method is commonly used to observe the overall distribution and to determine the lower or upper bound value in statistical approach when direct analytical calculation is unavailable. However, this method would not be efficient if the tail area of a distribution is concerned. A new method, entitled Two-Step Tail Area Sampling, is developed, which uses the assumption of discrete probability distribution and samples only the tail area without distorting the overall distribution. This method uses a two-step sampling procedure. First, sampling at points separated by large intervals is done and second, sampling at points separated by small intervals is done with some check points determined at first-step sampling. Comparison with Monte Carlo Method shows that the results obtained from the new method converge to analytic value faster than Monte Carlo Method if the numbers of calculation of both methods are the same. This new method is applied to DNBR (Departure from Nucleate Boiling Ratio) prediction problem in design of the pressurized light water nuclear reactor.     

ON THE DERIVATION AND COMPUTATION OF THE CORNISH-FISHER EXPANSION

The paper gives a simple derivation based on elementary statistics for the Cornish—Fisher expansion. The method simplifies greatly the algebra in working out the polynomials involved both in the normalization and in the inverse expansions. The derivation also leads to recursive formulae which yield powerful algorithms for numerical computation of the expansion.     

False parsimony and its detection with GLMs

A search for a good parsimonious model is often required in data analysis. However, unfortunately we may end up with a falsely parsimonious model. Misspecification of the variance structure causes a loss of efficiency in regression estimation and this can lead to large standard-error estimates, producing possibly false parsimony. With generalized linear models (GLMs) we can keep the link function fixed while changing the variance function, thus allowing us to recognize false parsimony caused by such increased standard errors. With data transformation, any change of transformation automatically changes the scale for additivity, making false parsimony hard to recognize.