Dropouts and continuers in Gamblers Anonymous: Life-context and other factors

The design, aims and rationale are outlined of a follow-up study of dropouts from Gamblers Anonymous. A cohort of those attending for the first time and dropping out after more than one meeting was contacted and the cooperators given a structured interview examining factors which may have contributed to decisions to dropout. A comparison group of continuers from the same meeting who had been totally abstinent for at least a year were given the same structured interviews. This first of four parts examines life context factors making it more difficult to maintain attendance, commitment to the treatment program, perceived pre-meeting expectations and reasons for coming, impacts of the first meeting, effects of pressures to maintain attendance and the influence of spouses.     

Scenarios for the Indian iron and steel industry

Iron and steel is a key industry in the Indian economy. The author looks at the prospects into the next century and the options facing the industry over the next two decades. New capacity will have to be undertaken but it will undoubtedly be difficult to fund this without external assistance and without diverting resources from other areas. Thus it will be necessary to plan for technological innovation to achieve production objectives, and such technology must be developed in India, or imported and adapted to suit indigenous conditions.     

A note on revelation of information for joint production

If investors' attitudes toward risk are sufficiently similar to admit an efficient sharing rule that is linear, then this rule also provides sufficient incentives for truthful revelation of private information relevant for joint production decisions.Research support from the Office of Naval Research contract ONR-N00014-79-C-0685 and the National Science Foundation grants SOC-75-21820 and SES-81-08226 is gratefully acknowledged. This paper was prepared during the term of a Guggenheim Fellowship     

Analyzing migration decisions: the first step-whose decisions?

Many theories of geographic mobility assume that the change-of-residence process includes a substantial degree of choice. This paper classifies stated reasons for moving from the 1973 through 1977 Annual Housing Survey into forced, imposed, and preference-dominated categories. About 25 percent of residential mobility and 40 percent of migration occurred under conditions of substantial constraint. Mobility was most often constrained by family dynamics; for migration, occupational relocations frequently imposed the decision-to-move process and determined destinations. The volume of constrained movement indicates that its impact upon individuals, population dynamics, and voluntaristic theories of mobility deserves greater consideration.     

Determinants of fertility levels and change among developed countries: 1958–1978

This article provides a multivariate cross-national test of the hypothesis that national population/family planning policies have effected levels, and changes in fertility in developed nations over the past two decades. Variation is assessed in the total fertility rates (TFR) in 1978, and in the change in these rates between 1958 and 1978, among thirty developed countries. Measures include socioeconomic development, divorce, percent in consensual unions, female labor force participation, abortion policy, and level of contraceptive use by married couples and, government population/family planning policy. Seventy percent of the variation in 1978 TFR is related to the percent contracepting, female labor force, and the population/family planning policy measures. These are the only measures with significant direct effects. A longitudinal analysis of 1958 to 1978 change in TFRs is also conducted. This model increases R² to 75%, and the three independent variables remain significant. Implications of these findings for policy makers interested in increasing or decreasing fertility rates are noted.     

Martingale generalizations and preservation of martingale properties

This article investigates circumstances under which seven important martingale properties are preserved by the following six martingale generalizations: quasimartingales, amarts, martingales in the limit, games fairer with time, progressive martingales, and eventual martingales.     

CHERRIES, LEMONS, AND THE FTC: MINIMUM QUALITY STANDARDS IN THE RETAIL USED AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY

The FTC initially considered two forms of regulation in the used automobile market, requiring dealers to either certify or warrant the mechanical condition of each automobile sold. Since the regulation would have been imposed only on dealers and not on private sellers, its effectiveness was dependent on the magnitude of the induced shift of sales into the private market. Accordingly, this paper employs a gametheoretic model to examine the theoretical conditions under which society could be expected to benefit from either regulatory alternative. Among other things, it is concluded that a socially beneficial minimum quality standard may not exist in some situations.     

Professor Cuneo's analysis of class exploitation in Canada*

Ce texte examine l'étude faite par le professeur Cuneo sur la relation entre l'exploitation des classes et les conflits manifestes entre les classes au Canada. Nous démontrons que la thèse de Cuneo selon laquelle il existe une relation positive entre ces variables est fausse, étant donné que pour arriver à ses indices, Cuneo s'est servi de statistiques erronnées sur le taux de plus-value, les grèves et les lock-outs.
Profesor Cuneo's study of the relation between class exploitation and overt class conflict in Canada is examined. We show that his finding of a positive relation between these variables is based on errors in constructing his indices of the rate of surplus value and strike and lockout activity.     

Structural Aspects of Differences in Income between Anglophones and Francophones*

Cet article compare les données publiées par Raynauld et al. concernant les différences dans le revenu entre les Français et les Anglais à l'aide de données récentes provenant d'une enquête sur échantillon. Il souligne plusieurs faiblesses méthodologiques de l'analyse de Raynauld. Une mise en parallèle des données recueillies en 1961 et en 1968 révèle un nivellement des différences dans le revenu durant cette période. Bien que le taux « national » du revenu moyen des francophones par rapport à celui des anglophones se rapproche de l'unité, les différences dans le revenu se sont accentuées chez les travailleurs au bas de l'échelle professionnelle. Cette conclusion ainsi que d'autres résultats permettent d'invoquer la « discrimination » comme étant un facteur influençant le niveau de revenu. This paper compares the data on French-British income differences presented by Raynauld et al. with more recent survey data. It mentions several methodological criticisms of Raynauld's analysis. Comparisons between data gathered in 1961 and 1968 indicate a levelling of the income differences during that period. Although the nation-wide ratio of francophone to anglophone incomes is now closer to unity, the income disparity has increased for persons in lower-skilled occupations. These and other findings invite various interpretations of “discrimination” as a variable related to income.