Toward Probabilistic Prediction of Flash Flood Human Impacts

This article focuses on conceptual and methodological developments allowing the integration of physical and social dynamics leading to model forecasts of circumstance‐specific human losses during a flash flood. To reach this objective, a random forest classifier is applied to assess the likelihood of fatality occurrence for a given circumstance as a function of representative indicators. Here, vehicle‐related circumstance is chosen as the literature indicates that most fatalities from flash flooding fall in this category. A database of flash flood events, with and without human losses from 2001 to 2011 in the United States, is supplemented with other variables describing the storm event, the spatial distribution of the sensitive characteristics of the exposed population, and built environment at the county level. The catastrophic flash floods of May 2015 in the states of Texas and Oklahoma are used as a case study to map the dynamics of the estimated probabilistic human risk on a daily scale. The results indicate the importance of time‐ and space‐dependent human vulnerability and risk assessment for short‐fuse flood events. The need for more systematic human impact data collection is also highlighted to advance impact‐based predictive models for flash flood casualties using machine‐learning approaches in the future.     

Führung in Familienunternehmen: Besonderheiten der Entscheidungsfindung und Verhaltenssteuerung und deren Auswirkung auf den Unternehmenserfolg

This paper draws on a survey design to investigate whether family ownership and leadership have an influence on the decision-facilitating and decision-influencing roles of management control. Moreover, we investigate whether the more intuitive decision making in family firms which is often said to be caused by a lack of professionalism, is indeed a disadvantage. The results indicate significant differences in the use of management controls between family firms and non-family firms. However, in contrast to the prevailing view in literature, the performance of family firms is not affected negatively by their specific way of making decisions and by their more centralized management style. According to our data, the prevailing characterization of family firms as being less professionally managed seems questionable.     

Evaluating the Simplified Conjoint Expected Risk Model: Comparing the Use of Objective and Subjective Information

The simplified Conjoint Expected Risk (CER) model by Holtgrave and Weber posits that perceived risk is a linear combination of the subjective judgments of the probabilities of harm, benefit, and status quo, and the expected harm and benefit of an activity. It modifies Luce and Weber's original CER model—that uses objective information to evaluate financial gambles—to accommodate activities such as health/technology activities where values of the model variables are subjective. If the simplified model is a valid modification of the original model, its performance should not be sensitive to the use of subjective information. However, because people may evaluate information differently when objective information is provided to them than when they generate information on their own, the performance of the simplified CER model may not be robust to the source of model-variable information. We compared the use of objective and subjective information, and results indicate that the estimates of the simplified CER model parameters and the proportion of variance in risk judgments accounted for by the model are similar under these two conditions. Thus, the simplified CER model is viable with activities for which harm and benefit information is subjective.     

Declining inter-industry wage dispersion in the US

Industrial effects have long been significant factors in wage inequality. Previous research indicates that wage differentials across industries were increasing through the mid 1980s. Using more recent data, however, we find that the level of inter-industry wage dispersion declined by 36% from 1986 to 2002 despite the continued trend towards increasing inequality in the labor force. This decline in inter-industry wage dispersion is evident across gender and educational groups. Using multilevel growth curve models, our multivariate results indicate that the decline is only weakly related to industrial changes in education, occupation or even productivity despite the fact that the latter variable had been a critical factor in the prior period. Indicators of globalization and downsizing also do not appear to explain this decline. For the more recent period, the most important factors associated with the narrowing of inter-industry wage dispersion are reduced unionization rates and the higher proportion of casual workers. We interpret these results as suggesting that firms may now be less economically obliged to pass on a portion of their rents to broad groups of workers and may instead be engaged in more idiosyncratic processes of negotiation with individual workers based on micro-level sources of bargaining power.     

Wage and Non-Wage Compensation Among Young Alcoholic and Heavy Drinking Women: A Preliminary Analysis

The association between drinking and selected job characteristics among women aged 24 to 31 is examined. Using the 1989 NLSY, women are classified as alcohol abusers or dependent based on DSM-III-R criteria or as heavy drinkers based on reported frequency of six or more drinks. Heavy drinking is negatively associated with wage and non-wage compensation. These effects diminish when human capital measures are controlled. Current alcoholism and current and past heavy drinking are strongly negatively associated with years of schooling. The association between alcoholism and job compensation and characteristics is not as strong as that seen for heavy drinking. It is not known if this is a consequence of errors in identifying alcoholic women in population-based surveys.     

Testing circular symmetry

The author addresses the problem of testing circular data for reflective symmetry about an unknown central direction and proposes a simple omnibus test based on the sample second sine moment about an estimation of this direction. Under quite general conditions, for an underlying distribution which is reflectively symmetric, the large‐sample asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is standard normal. Randomization and bootstrap variants of the test are also introduced, and the operating characteristics of different versions of the test are investigated in a Monte Carlo study. The large‐sample and bootstrap versions of the test are applied in the analysis of two illustrative examples drawn from the circular statistics literature.     

Range management and production on the fringe: The Caldenal, Argentina

North American problems in coming to terms with the management of the semi-arid Plains environment are well known. Less documented are those of Argentina's equivalent on the fringe of the Humid Pampas. Argentine agricultural aid and research has been focussed on the Humid Pampas, and little understanding of the special problems of the dry zone is apparent. Issues of production and conservation are in urgent need of attention. In addition to the limits posed by the natural environment, a number of human factors affect the ability of ranchers to produce from the dry lands. In a field study of the Caldenal, some indications are that the factors are different from other environments in Latin America. Large properties are not less productive per hectare than small, and standard technology does not guarantee good results from ranching. Tenant farming is not a problem, but there is an impoverished group, those ranchers without other means of earning a livelihood. A recommendation is for encouragement to be given to larger ranch units, and for more research into relevant technology, which is likely to include conservationist measures, whose introduction to the ranches should be financially supported.     

PAUSES: EXPLORATIONS IN SOCIAL RHYTHM

Despite the ubiquity of pauses in the personal and social fabric of everyday life, sociological analysis of this phenomenon has been limited in both scope and concern. In this article it is argued that pausing should not be relegated to the status of a residual category nor should pauses merely be conceptualized as breaks in action or periods of inactivity. Rather, it is suggested that pauses are an essential element of the social rhythm that demonstrates degrees of personal and community well-being and vitality. As well, pausing may be an important, perhaps even necessary, part of the process of commitment and self-esteem. A typology of pauses is offered and the implications of pausing in establishing the rhythm of human behavior are discussed.     

Social work and day care: a role looking for a profession

The profession's present role in day care is assessed through a review of the social work literature. This analysis suggests that the profession is not systematically involved enough in child care systems on a local or national basis. The author discusses why this is so, and suggests professional points of access for social workers interested in providing social services in different types of child care. In addition, it is recommended that more policy and programmatic emphases be put on providing social services to family day care homes, the care of children by their relatives, and for centers that serve ethnic minorities and disadvantaged families.I wish to thank Beatrice Saunders and Eleanor Brilliant for their help in writing this article.