A population dynamic model of Batesian mimicry

Summary A population dynamic model of Batesian mimicry, in which populations of both model and mimetic species were considered, was analyzed. The probability of a predator catching prey on each encouter was assumed to depend on the frequency of the mimic. The change in population size of each species was considered to have two components, growth at the intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity, and reduction by predation. For simplicity in the analyses, three assumptions were made concerning the carrying capacities of each population: (1) with no density effects on the mimic population growth rate; (2) with no density effects on the model species; and (3) with density effects on both species. The first and second cases were solved analytically, whereas the last was, for the most part, investigated numerically. Under assumption (1), two stable equilibria are possible, in which both species either coexist or go to extinction. Under assumption (2), there are also two stable equilibria possible, in which either only the mimic persists or both go to extinction. These results explain the field records of butterflies (Pachliopta aristolochiae and its mimicPapilio polytes) in the Ryukyu Islands, Japan.     

The dynamic performances of DDTs in the environment and Japanese exposure to them: a historical perspective after the ban.

The fugacity model for evaluating DDTs dynamic performances in the environment was combined with the dietary exposure evaluation model, including the contribution of imported food, to develop the macroscopic mathematical model relating DDTs in the environment with the health risks of the reference Japanese. The model validity was examined by comparing the simulated DDTs concentrations in environmental media, various kinds of food, and dietary intake with those observed. Numerical simulations were done for the past half and future of one century to evaluate the effect of the DDTs usage prohibition in 1970 in Japan. The major results obtained under the limits considered are as follows. The DDTs concentrations in environmental media, various kinds of foods, and the dietary intake showed the steady exponential decrease after the DDTs usage prohibition in 1970. The DDE/DDTs ratio is larger in the higher position in an ecological system, and increased steadily with time. The critical exposure of DDTs occurred through animal product intake until 1960; after 1990 marine product intake caused the most exposure. The estimated DDTs intake was evaluated to be less than the PTDI and RfD. The annual excess cancer induction risk due to the annual dietary intake of DDTs was the largest at the level of (0.5 - 2.0) x 10(-6) (1/yr) in the early 1970s. The effect of the DDT usage prohibition on dietary exposure reduction was expected to appear after about 20 years. The life-span excess cancer induction risk was conservatively estimated to be larger than 10(-5) (1/lifespan) for the reference Japanese who were born before 1970. The DDTs usage prohibition in 1970 was effective to reduce the life-span cancer risk under the 10(-5) level.     

Effects of dutasteride on lower urinary tract symptoms: a prospective analysis based on changes in testosterone/dihydrotestosterone levels and total prostatic volume reduction

This study analyzed the effects of dutasteride on lower urinary tract symptoms based on the association between changes in the total testosterone (TT)/dihydrotestosterone (DHT) levels and total prostate volume (TPV) reduction. Sixty participants diagnosed with benign prostatic hyperplasia were given 0.5?mg of dutasteride daily for 52 weeks. Measures of TT and DHT levels, TPV and uroflowmetry were obtained before and after dutasteride treatment. Forty-three patients demonstrated a TPV reduction of ≥5% (Group 1), whereas the remaining 17 patients demonstrated a TPV reduction of <5% (Group 2). DHT suppression and DHT/TT ratio at baseline were significantly higher in Group 1 than Group 2. International Prostate Symptom Scores (IPSS) and uroflowmetry were significantly improved in both groups. In Group 2, nine patients demonstrated some improvement in IPSS (Group 2A), whereas eight did not (Group 2B). The rate of TT increase and improvement in voiding symptoms were significantly higher in Group 2A than Group 2B. Dutasteride-induced TPV reduction is dependent on individual 5-α reductase inhibitor activity. Some patients demonstrating smaller dutasteride-induced TPV reduction may experience an improvement in voiding symptoms owing to an increased level of testosterone.     

A generalized representation theorem for Harsanyi’s (‘impartial’) observer

We provide an axiomatization of an additively separable social welfare function in the context of Harsanyi’s impartial observer theorem. To do this, we reformulate Harsanyi’s setting to make the lotteries over the identities the observer may assume independent of the social alternative.     

日本正当防卫的新动向

按照日本刑法,针对急迫不正的侵害,为了防卫自己或他人的权利而不得已实施的行为,是正当防卫。在日本,正当防卫的适用向来存在争论。作者通过列举近年来最高裁判所判例所涉及的问题点,介绍和探讨日本裁判上判例解释的最新动向。     

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Finfish: A Model of Raw Horse Mackerel Consumption in Japan

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of implemented control measures to reduce illness induced by Vibrio parahaemolyticus (V. parahaemolyticus) in horse mackerel (Trachurus japonicus), seafood that is commonly consumed raw in Japan. On the basis of currently available experimental and survey data, we constructed a quantitative risk model of V. parahaemolyticus in horse mackerel from harvest to consumption. In particular, the following factors were evaluated: bacterial growth at all stages, effects of washing the fish body and storage water, and bacterial transfer from the fish surface, gills, and intestine to fillets during preparation. New parameters of the beta‐Poisson dose‐response model were determined from all human feeding trials, some of which have been used for risk assessment by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USFDA). The probability of illness caused by V. parahaemolyticus was estimated using both the USFDA dose‐response parameters and our parameters for each selected pathway of scenario alternatives: washing whole fish at landing, storage in contaminated water, high temperature during transportation, and washing fish during preparation. The last scenario (washing fish during preparation) was the most effective for reducing the risk of illness by about a factor of 10 compared to no washing at this stage. Risk of illness increased by 50% by exposure to increased temperature during transportation, according to our assumptions of duration and temperature. The other two scenarios did not significantly affect risk. The choice of dose‐response parameters was not critical for evaluation of control measures.     

Entropy-Based Moment Selection in the Presence of Weak Identification

Hall et al. (2007 Hall , A. R. , Inoue , A. , Jana , K. , Shin , C. (2007). Information in generalized method of moments estimation and entropy based moment selection. Journal of Econometrics 138:488–512.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) propose a method for moment selection based on an information criterion that is a function of the entropy of the limiting distribution of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator. They establish the consistency of the method subject to certain conditions that include the identification of the parameter vector by at least one of the moment conditions being considered. In this article, we examine the limiting behavior of this moment selection method when the parameter vector is weakly identified by all the moment conditions being considered. It is shown that the selected moment condition is random and hence not consistent in any meaningful sense. As a result, we propose a two-step procedure for moment selection in which identification is first tested using a statistic proposed by Stock and Yogo (2003 Stock , J. H. , Yogo , M. ( 2003 ). Testing for weak instruments in linear IV regression . Discussion paper, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA . [Google Scholar]) and then only if this statistic indicates identification does the researcher proceed to the second step in which the aforementioned information criterion is used to select moments. The properties of this two-step procedure are contrasted with those of strategies based on either using all available moments or using the information criterion without the identification pre-test. The performances of these strategies are compared via an evaluation of the finite sample behavior of various methods for inference about the parameter vector. The inference methods considered are based on the Wald statistic, Anderson and Rubin's (1949 Anderson , T. W. , Rubin , H. ( 1949 ). Estimation of the parameters of a single equation in a complete system of stochastic equations . Annals of Mathematical Statistics 20 : 46 – 63 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) statistic, Kleibergen (2002 Kleibergen , F. ( 2002 ). Pivotal statistics for testing structural parameters in instrumenatl variables regression . Econometrica 70 : 1781 – 1803 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) K statistic, and combinations thereof in which the choice is based on the outcome of the test for weak identification.     

One Agency's Use of Risk Assessment and Risk Communication1

Few organizations have the courage to evaluate their own use of risk assessment (identifying hazards and estimating their probability and magnitude) and risk communication (interacting with internal and external stakeholder groups about risks). The USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) wants to enhance its overall risk analysis process for managing a wide range of risks to animals, plants, and human health. We gathered survey data for a baseline of APHIS professionals’ understanding and use of risk assessment and risk communication. APHIS professionals spend a surprisingly large share of their time communicating about risks. They perceive that risk estimates influence decisions, but that risk estimates should have more influence. Respondents reported little opposition to APHIS risk management decisions, and little use of channels such as USDA Extension Service for disseminating risk messages. Substantial variance across responses is explained mostly by differences in the roles of the 11 work units (now 10) within the agency. Location also contributes to the variance. Demographic variables seem less important.     

Intimate mobilities—International (transnational) marriage and migration: Japanese marriage migrants floating between Japan and Korea

In the past decade, intense mobility within Asia has led to increased international marriage (kokusai kekkon) in the region. A growing number of scholars have explored this phenomenon—called the intimate part of Asia—with a focus on foreign brides from emerging economies. Concerning international marriage between Japanese and Koreans, most research focuses on the Korean wives of Japanese husbands who reside in Japan, and little research has been conducted on the Japanese wives of Korean husbands. In this study, the postmigration experiences of Japanese marriage migrant women in South Korea are explored. Semistructured interviews were conducted in Korea with 13 participants. Drawing on the interview data, this article elucidates the trajectories of Japanese marriage migrants, focusing on subjective elements. The participants' accounts demonstrate that their experiences were intertwined with the media, politics, gender roles, parenting ideologies, and family relations. Their various emotional responses underline the ways such factors have shaped their lives.