An Epidemiologic Note on Verification Bias: Implications for Estimation of Rates

Two-stage designs offer several advantages for purposes of test validation and prevalence estimation. These include enhanced precision and increased cost-efficiency. Cost efficiency is obtained when the best available verification criterion is too expensive to employ in a large-scale epidemiologic study. The use of two-stage (or double-sampling) designs permit the same inferences from application to only a subset of those who were screened (with the less expensive criterion) during stage one. The retesting of only some of the first stage respondents introduces a bias, however, if these are sampled on the basis of first stage screening results. The form of this bias is described and solutions for correcting estimates are provided. These solutions are applied to the data reported by Abbott and Volberg (1996) in their study of the New Zealand general population. Corrected estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of the South Oaks Gambling Screen are obtained and used to adjust the reported lifetime and current prevalence estimates. The value of multi-stage designs for validity assessment and prevalence estimation are briefly described.     

The model of human occupation and prediction of return to work: a review of related empirical research

The purpose of this paper is to investigate through a review of research literature whether empirical support exists to support the theoretical arguments of the Model of Human Occupation. A literature review of 44 predictive studies of factors influencing return-to-work published over the last 25 years was conducted. The factors most commonly found to be associated with return to work or with long-term disability were then organized according to the subsystems of the Model of Human Occupation.     

Coming out to parents: perceptions of family relations, perceived resources, and identity expression as predictors of identity disclosure for gay and lesbian adolescents

This paper examines perceptions of family relations, identity expression, and pro-lesbian/gay resources as factors influencing coming out to parents. One hundred seventy-two adolescents responded to a survey originating from a clinical support group for lesbian and gay youth. Findings indicate that weak family relations significantly detract from coming out to parents indirectly through identity expression and perceived resources. Excluding the effects of family relations, adolescents perceiving supportive resources and expressing their lesbian/gay identity were more likely to come out to parents.     

The 1999 Small Employer Retirement Survey: building a better mousetrap is not enough

As of 1995, there were 5.3 million small-employer firms (100 or fewer employees) in the United States. These small firms employed 38.0 million individuals, representing 38 percent of all employment. Therefore, low retirement plan coverage among small employers directly affects a sizeable fraction of the national work force. There are a number of reasons why more small employers do not offer retirement plans. Cost and administration-related issues do matter, but for many small employers these take a back seat to other issues. For some, the main driver is the financial reality of running a small business: Their revenue is too uncertain to commit to a plan. For others, the most important reasons for not sponsoring a plan are employee-related, e.g., the workers do not consider retirement savings to be a priority, or the employer's work force has such high turnover that it does not make sense to sponsor a plan. Many nonsponsors are unfamiliar with the different retirement plan types available to them as potential plan sponsors, especially the options created specifically for small employers. For example, most nonsponsors said they have never heard of (36 percent) or are not too familiar with (20 percent) SIMPLE plans for small businesses. Fifteen percent of small employers report that they are very likely to start a plan in the next two years, while 24 percent say this is somewhat likely. Nonsponsors report that the two items most likely to lead to serious consideration of sponsoring a plan are an increase in profits (69 percent) and business tax credits for starting a retirement plan (67 percent). Major drivers of low retirement plan sponsorship among small employers are who they employ and the uncertainty of revenue flows. While issues of administrative cost and burden matter, they are only part of the puzzle. Therefore, the solution is not simply "build it and they will come," by creating simpler and simpler retirement plans geared to small businesses. Rather, it is build it and they will come once the business reaches a certain level of profitability and stability, and once retirement planning and saving are more of a priority for the small employer's workers.     

现代英国的科学哲学观

时至今日,哲学历史文献中还普遍存在着一种这样的见解:战后的英国哲学几乎无例外地都是语言哲学派,新实证主义分为两大基本流派,号称“语言哲学派”的就是其中之一,它与维也纳小组的逻辑实证主义的区别在于它特别着重于自然语言的哲学分析。的确,在一定时期内语义分析哲学在大不列颠岛的统治地位几乎是稳如磐石的,其开创者是乔治·摩尔,其次是列·维特根斯坦。但是这个见解只能说是针对四十年代到五十年代的英国资产阶级哲学而言。无论如何,至少在1959年卡尔·波佩尔已经在其著作《科学研究的逻辑》的英文版前言中对语言哲学化的方法提出了尖锐的批评,指责那些日常语言哲学家的以解决永恒的哲学问题自命的狂妄态度。当然,这一类的批评早就有了,但是到六十年代初才广泛开展起     

白苗话的调变和变调(下)

(2·2)类推变调一个迄今只发现了八个词的小小的词类有这种类推变调,这个词类叫方位词,它们只出现在名词性短语中名词的前面或在指示词的前面。在下面的例子中,方位词前面都有动词y~1‘在’或 mu~4‘去’:y~1 pe~7 o~1‘在山上’,y~1 o~7 o~2‘在桌子上’,y~1 na~7 ha~3‘在谷下’,y~1y ti~7 o~4‘在山上(对面,同一水平)’,mu~4 t~7 kh~5‘去赶场(有一段距离,但在同一水平)’,mu~1nt ke~3‘走在路上(附近或在前面)’,mu~4 tshai~7te~1‘到山上的地里去’(在山的背面)。     

Visions in monochrome: families, marriage and the individualization thesis

This paper takes issue with the way in which the individualization thesis--in which it is assumed that close relationships have become tenuous and fragile--has become so dominant in 'new' sociological theorizing about family life. Although others have criticized this thesis, in this paper the main criticism derives from empirical research findings carried out with members of transnational families living in Britain whose values and practices do not fit easily with ideas of individualization. It is argued that we need a much more complex and less linear notion of how families change across generations and in time.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the New South Wales adult drug court program

In New South Wales, Australia, a cost-effectiveness evaluation was conducted of an adult drug court (ADC) program as an alternative to jail for criminal offenders addicted to illicit drugs. This article describes the program, the cost-effectiveness analysis, and the results. The results of this study reveal that, for the 23-month period of the evaluation, the ADC was as cost-effective as were conventional sanctions in delaying the time to the first offense and more cost-effective in reducing the frequency of offending for those outcome measures selected. Although the evaluation was conducted using the traditional steps of a cost-effectiveness analysis, because of the complexity of the program and data limitations it was not always possible to adhere to textbook procedures. As such, each step involved in undertaking the cost-effectiveness analysis is discussed, highlighting the key issues faced in the evaluation.     

The Internet's impact on policy evaluation: information compression and credibility

As with all media, the Internet structures and frames information, rewarding some information search and decision behaviors while punishing others and, thereby, strongly influences evaluation research results and possibilities. Now that the Internet is for many evaluators the information medium of choice, the impacts of the medium on evaluation deserve careful attention. The objective of this article is to lay groundwork for a theory of the impact of the Internet on evaluation and policy analysis. Questions addressed include the following: (a) What is the impact of the Internet on the evaluator's professional role, work norms, and work habits? (b) Does the use of the Internet affect who is an evaluator or the meaning of professional evaluation? and (c) How does evaluation via Internet affect the technical quality and credibility of evaluation? A key thesis is that the Internet compresses information in the sense that it is not always easy to distinguish among information resources and, especially, the authority of the information provider and the nature of the knowledge warrant. On one hand, the Internet's information compression seems to hold potential for the democratization of evaluation. On the other hand, the diminished ability to make quality distinctions about evaluation-relevant information may undercut the legitimacy of evaluation.     

Trajectories of Gambling During Adolescence

This study aimed at empirically identifying groups of adolescents with distinct longitudinal trajectories of gambling involvement and validating these groups by comparing them with respect to correlates. 903 low SES boys were followed annually from age 11 to 16 years. Three groups were found: an early-onset high-level chronic group, a late-onset high-level group, and a low gambler group. The Chronic group and the Low group consistently differed on teacher-rated inhibition (i.e., anxiety) during childhood and early adolescence. They also differed on concurrent teacher and self ratings of disinhibition (i.e., impulsivity), while the Late Onset group appeared to lie in between these groups. Compared to the Low group, both high groups subsequently had elevated scores on later gambling related problems.