Fuzzy Autoregressive Rules: Towards Linguistic Time Series Modeling

Fuzzy rule–based models, a key element in soft computing (SC), have arisen as an alternative for time series analysis and modeling. One difference with preexisting models is their interpretability in terms of human language. Their interactions with other components have also contributed to a huge development in their identification and estimation procedures. In this article, we present fuzzy rule–based models, their links with some regime-switching autoregressive models, and how the use of soft computing concepts can help the practitioner to solve and gain a deeper insight into a given problem. An example on a realized volatility series is presented to show the forecasting abilities of a fuzzy rule–based model.     

当代禅美学研究述评

禅美学在中国古代美学思想的重要组成部分,也是世界美学发展进程中不可忽视的内容,当代禅美学研究在禅美学基本理论问题的探索、佛禅与中国传统文艺形式之间的关系等方面取得了许多进展。研究角度主要是分析禅与艺本质上的深层联系以及从历史遗留下来的文艺作品中总结禅美学的内在规律,研究方式已初步突破传统美学的感悟式思维,而趋向于涉取西方、哲学、心理学的成果。禅美学研究的不足在于研究方法、研究角度存在着视野狭窄的问题。     

突发事件应急现场指挥系统研究

突发事件应急现场指挥系统是一套在应急响应过程中指挥、控制、协调与整合各应急单位进行现场管理的方式,其组织功能、结构与特征都是为了更有效率地处置突发事件。我国应加强突发事件初期应急现场指挥的力度和责任,构建多部门综合协调与处置的应急现场指挥机制,建立健全符合中国国情的标准化与灵活性相统一的应急现场指挥系统,更好地提升处理突发事件的效能。     

再论经济法的基础

经济法有其社会、经济和政治基础。这种基础集中表现为各种思想主张和制度安排。就其社会基础而言核心是个人自由与社会秩序,就其经济基础而言核心是市场调节与国家干预,就其政治基础而言核心是契约自由与人权保障,而上述三者又可进一步归结为自由竞争与秩序调控。在这些基础上形成一种特定的社会关系,即市场竞争关系和宏观调控关系,它由经济法调整,进而构成经济法的基础。     

公司治理对R&D投入与企业绩效关系调节效应研究

公司治理通过监督和激励机制来控制经理人的机会主义行为,使经理人有效配置资源,从而影响R&D项目的执行效果,最终影响企业绩效,公司治理自然被作为R&D投入与企业绩效关系的调节变量引入。基于委托代理理论,从理论上论证公司治理是如何调节R&D投入与企业绩效的关系,并且提出相应假设,选取中国A股制造业上市公司为研究样本,利用层次回归方法和分组分析方法,检验机构投资者、国有控股、董事会、经理层股权激励对R&D投入与企业绩效关系的调节效应。检验结果表明,机构投资者和独立董事对R&D投入与企业绩效没有调节作用,机构投资者与企业绩效有显著的直接关系,国有控股、董事会会议强度对二者关系有负向调节作用,经理层股权激励对二者关系有正向调节效应。从检验结果可以看出,R&D活动严重的信息不对称性和高度的专业性使得对其监督的难度比较大,通过给经理人一定的股权,使他们成为股东,用激励机制解决R&D活动中的代理问题可能效果更好。     

Family support as a working style in child protection in Italy: A comparative study on social workers' child welfare attitudes

Comparative studies on child protection decision-making highlight the implications and determinants of differences in child welfare systems internationally and reinforce discussions regarding child protection practices and family support when a child is exposed to inadequate parental care. To date, Italian child protection studies have highlighted a system characterised by a strong degree of variability related to the absence of practices shared nationally. Differently, this comparative study focuses more on similarities within the Italian context, seeking to understand how they influence practices. The opinions of 188 Italian social workers with respect to the substantiation of maltreatment, risk assessment and intervention recommendations were compared with the results of a recent study involving practitioners in Israel, Northern Ireland, Spain and the Netherlands. The main outcomes show that Italian social workers prefer a family support orientation, meaning that children are usually removed from their home only if necessary and generally with the aim of reunification with their families. The study also reveals that Italian professionals are more in favour of residential care than foster care.     

Adolescents at risk of mental health problems in the COVID-19 pandemic: A prospective population-based study of the effects of government mandates and school closures

There is increasing evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic has had substantial mental health impacts for adolescents. Yet, few definitive studies have investigated which adolescents were at higher risk of poor mental health and well-being during the pandemic. Data were drawn from the Childhood to Adolescence Transition Study, a prospective cohort study of students in Australia (N = 1211). Prevalence of mental health outcomes (depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, self-harm and good subjective well-being) was estimated in school Years 5–12, where Years 11 (2020) and 12 (2021) coincided with the pandemic. The age- and sex-adjusted relative risk of each mental health outcome for each priority group during the pandemic were estimated. During the pandemic, over 50% of study participants reported depressive symptoms, and one quarter reported anxiety symptoms. There was a decrease in good subjective well-being compared with pre-pandemic years, while self-harm prevalence remained similar. History of mental health problems, school disengagement and frequent peer victimisation increased the risk of experiencing mental health problems during the pandemic. Schools play a central role in maintaining the mental health and good subjective well-being of students, and this is particularly important during periods of social disruption, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.     

Factor structure of the Mini-Maternal Behavior Q-Sort and associations with infant attachment: Informing precision in research and intervention

We examined the factor structure of parental sensitivity to infants as assessed by the Mini-Maternal Behavior Q-Sort (Mini-MBQS), a 25-item short-form of the original 90-item MBQS. We aimed to: (1) identify latent factors of the Mini-MBQS; and (2) validate each factor by testing associations with infant attachment classifications. Data on parent-infant dyads (n = 313; 222 mothers with 281 children, 29 fathers with 32 children) were drawn from a three-generation Australian cohort study. Exploratory Factor Analysis and Exploratory Structural Equation Modelling examined the structure of the Mini-MBQS. Two latent Mini-MBQS factors were identified, requiring 8 of 25 original items: (1) Attention and Responsiveness and (2) Contingency in Interactions. Infants with insecure attachment classifications had parents with lower sensitivity across both factors relative to infants classified secure. In particular, infants with resistant attachment classifications had parents with notably low Contingency in Interactions scores. Infants with disorganised attachment classifications had parents with the lowest relative sensitivity across both factors, and in these dyads Attention and Responsiveness scores were especially low. Results provide an empirically derived factor structure for the Mini-MBQS. Two subscales, each with significant infant attachment associations, may improve precision in clinical intervention and research translation.