International Business Cycle Asymmetry and Time Irreversible Nonlinearities

Using tests of time reversibility, this paper provides further statistical evidence on the long-standing conjecture in economics concerning the potentially asymmetric behaviour of output over the expansionary and contractionary phases of the business cycle. A particular advantage of this approach is that it provides a discriminating test that is instructive as to whether any asymmetries detected are due to asymmetric shocks to a linear model, or an underlying non-linear model with symmetric shocks, and in the latter case is informative as to the potential form of that nonlinear model. Using a long span of international per capita output growth data, the asymmetry detected is overwhelmingly consistent with the long standing perception that the output business cycle is characterized by steeper recessions and longer more gentle expansions, but the evidence for this form of business cycle asymmetry is weaker in the data adjusted for the influence of outliers associated with wars and other extreme events. Statistically significant time irreversibility is reported for the output growth rates of almost all of the countries considered in the full sample data, and there is evidence that this time irreversibility is of a form implying an underlying nonlinear model with symmetrically distributed innovations for 15 of the 22 countries considered. However, the time irreversibility test results for the outlier-trimmed full sample data reveal significant time irreversibility in output growth for around one half of the countries considered, predominantly in Northern Europe and North America, and of a form implying a nonlinear underlying model in only a further half of those cases.     

Political Generations and the Contemporary Women's Movement*

Most traditional work by political sociologists conceives of social movement activity and politics as pertaining only to the public world and political activity as inherently masculine. Women are virtually invisible in these accounts. That the nature of political and social change is shaped by the organization of gender is a fact obscured in the conceptualizations typically employed. One such concept is political generation. Virtually no scholarly work has been done to analyze women in terms of political generations. Political generations are taken as sex-neutral phenomena with no hint that the organization of politics is based in the social organization of gender. Indeed, perhaps the major assumption of generational analysis, that generations are formed during youth and its accompanying period of rebellion and change, has not been subject to sustained scrutiny; this model may well capture the male, but possibly not, the female experience. Nevertheless, the generational model might be usefully applied to an understanding of the growth and transformation of the women's movement. When women are put at the center of inquiry, the notion of political generations takes on new meanings, and it raises questions about who, how, and when social groups come to experience similar perceptions and understandings of reality. This analysis begins with a selective summary of the assumptions and directions of generational analysis in social science. Contemporary media use of generational analysis follows with an eye to the ways in which media representation has shaped some women's movement dialogue. Feminist generational thinking is explored as it attempts to account for the history of the women's movements in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and for the relations of young and old in the contemporary movement. Possible directions for further research and reformulation are suggested.     

Household composition choices of older unmarried women

This article extends previous research on the household composition of older unmarried women, using a statistical model that treats each of a woman's surviving children as a distinct potential provider of a shared household. Additional possibilities--living alone, living with other nuclear-family relatives, and living with others--are also recognized, providing a varied range of household-structure opportunities for older women. The approach allows us to identify individual child attributes associated with the propensity to coreside with the older unmarried mother. The results confirm earlier findings regarding the importance of income, age, and disability status as determinants of the household composition of older women. We find, however, that unmarried children, especially sons, are more likely to share a household with an elderly mother than are married children. Working reduces the likelihood that a married daughter will live with her older mother. Overall, the findings suggest that the attributes, more so than the sheer numbers, of living children influence the household structure of their mothers.     

A SYSTEMIC TREATMENT APPROACH TO WIFE BATTERING

This article places the problem of wife battering or domestic abuse in a systemic framework. Literature that bears most directly on a systemic understanding and treatment of wife battering is reviewed. A comprehensive approach to treatment as it might be utilized by marriage and family therapists is outlined and a case example is presented.     

Adaptation to Retirement: Role Changes and Psychological Resources

In this review, the influence of social and work roles are incorporated into a model of retirement adjustment, along with two psychological moderators that may aid the retirement transition. These psychological resources, locus of control and retirement self-efficacy, are those behavioral predispositions that would lead one to engage in proactive strategies for mastering the role changes inherent in the retirement transition. The implications of social and work-related role changes and psychological resources for retirement planning and adjustment are discussed.     

Conditional inference for subject-specific and marginal agreement: Two families of agreement measures

A two-stage procedure is described for assessing subject-specific and marginal agreement for data from a test-retest reliability study of a binary classification procedure. Subject-specific agreement is parametrized through the log odds ratio, while marginal agreement is reflected by the log ratio of the off-diagonal Poisson means. A family of agreement measures in the interval [-1, 1] is presented for both types of agreement. The conditioning argument described facilitates exact inference. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by way of an example involving hypothetical data chosen for illustrative purposes, and data from a National Health Survey Study (Rogot and Goldberg 1966).     

Anger in black and white: race, alienation, and anger

Using data from the 1996 General Social Survey and the 1973 Chicago Crowding Study, we test the hypotheses that African Americans feel and express more anger than whites, that sense of control (versus powerlessness) lessens anger and mistrust increases anger, and that these indicators of alienation affect anger differently for African Americans and whites. We find that when age and gender are controlled, African Americans neither feel nor express more anger than whites, despite having a lower average sense of control and higher mistrust. This is partly because the effects of sense of control and mistrust on anger differ by race. Sense of control reduces feelings of anger and anger expression more for African Americans than whites. Mistrust increases feelings of anger for whites, but not African Americans. The results provide further evidence that, in the stress process, social structural location may moderate the effects of "detriments" and "resources" on emotional upset.     

Using and interpreting analogue designs

Researchers in rehabilitation counseling and disability studies sometimes use analogue research, which involves materials that approximate or describe reality (e.g., written vignettes, videotaped exemplars) rather than investigating phenomena in real-world settings. Analogue research often utilizes experimental designs, and it thereby frequently possesses a high degree of internal validity. Analogue research allows investigators to exercise tight control over the implementation of the independent or treatment variable and over potentially confounding variables, which enables them to isolate the effects of those treatment variables on selected outcome measures. However, the simulated nature of analogue research presents an important threat to external validity. As such, the generalizability of analogue research to real-life settings and situations may be problematic. These and other issues germane to analogue research in vocational rehabilitation are discussed in this article, illustrated with examples from the contemporary literature.     

Spatial Cluster Detection for Longitudinal Outcomes Using Administrative Regions

This article proposes a new spatial cluster detection method for longitudinal outcomes that detects neighborhoods and regions with elevated rates of disease while controlling for individual level confounders. The proposed method, CumResPerm, utilizes cumulative geographic residuals through a permutation test to detect potential clusters which are defined as sets of administrative regions, such as a town or group of administrative regions. Previous cluster detection methods are not able to incorporate individual level data including covariate adjustment, while still being able to define potential clusters using informative neighborhood or town boundaries. Often, it is of interest to detect such spatial clusters because individuals residing in a town may have similar environmental exposures or socioeconomic backgrounds due to administrative reasons, such as zoning laws. Therefore, these boundaries can be very informative and more relevant than arbitrary clusters such as the standard circle or square. Application of the CumResPerm method will be illustrated by the Home Allergens and Asthma prospective cohort study analyzing the relationship between area or neighborhood residence and repeated measured outcome, occurrence of wheeze in the last six months, while taking into account mobile locations.