A Longitudinal Study of the Leadership Development Process: Individual Differences Predicting Leader Effectiveness

This study tracked the leadership development of236 male cadets from matriculation through graduation ata military college. Cognitive ability, physical fitness,prior influence experiences, and self-esteem measured in Year 1 were relevant to predictingthose who assumed formal leadership positions in Year 4.Physical fitness and prior influence experiencesmeasured when cadets entered the college predicted leader effectiveness rated in their fourthyear. Stress tolerance and moral reasoning levels didnot predict leader emergence or effectiveness, thoughthe set of individual difference measures significantly predicted emergence and effectiveness. Physicalfitness levels and moral reasoning increased over timefor all cadets, though surprisingly, levels ofself-esteem and stress tolerance did not increase over time. Overall the study demonstrated thatleadership effectiveness and emergence could bepredicted from early measures of individualdifferences.     

Accounting for Patterns of Father Involvement: Age of Child, Father-Child Coresidence, and Father Role Salience

This study examines the extent to which fathers are involved in parenting their children under several conditions, using a multivariate regression model. The model includes the age of the child, father role salience, and the father and child's coresidential status as predictors of father involvement. Although nonresidential fathers tend to be less involved than residential fathers under most conditions, this is not the case for fathers of adolescents who find the father role to be at least moderately salient. Explanations for their greater involvement are proposed, focusing specifically on the unique characteristics of the parent-child relationship involving an adolescent child and a nonresidential parent.     

Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root

This paper develops an asymptotic theory of inference for an unrestricted two‐regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with an autoregressive unit root. We find that the asymptotic null distribution of Wald tests for a threshold are nonstandard and different from the stationary case, and suggest basing inference on a bootstrap approximation. We also study the asymptotic null distributions of tests for an autoregressive unit root, and find that they are nonstandard and dependent on the presence of a threshold effect. We propose both asymptotic and bootstrap‐based tests. These tests and distribution theory allow for the joint consideration of nonlinearity (thresholds) and nonstationary (unit roots). Our limit theory is based on a new set of tools that combine unit root asymptotics with empirical process methods. We work with a particular two‐parameter empirical process that converges weakly to a two‐parameter Brownian motion. Our limit distributions involve stochastic integrals with respect to this two‐parameter process. This theory is entirely new and may find applications in other contexts. We illustrate the methods with an application to the U.S. monthly unemployment rate. We find strong evidence of a threshold effect. The point estimates suggest that the threshold effect is in the short‐run dynamics, rather than in the dominate root. While the conventional ADF test for a unit root is insignificant, our TAR unit root tests are arguably significant. The evidence is quite strong that the unemployment rate is not a unit root process, and there is considerable evidence that the series is a stationary TAR process.     

“Shell as Hard as Steel” (Or, “Iron Cage”): What Exactly Did That Imagery Mean for Weber?

Max Weber did not invent the image of the iron cage; it was Talcott Parsons who created that image in preparing the first translation of The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism into English to be published. But that has not prevented it from catching on and even acquiring the status of a popular symbol of Weber's entire view of modern life. Despite its popularity, however, the image does not have a commonly accepted meaning. In part this is because of the creative uses to which it has been put by other scholars, but it is also a result of the fact that Weber himself used the German terms that were the source of Parsons’ translation in a variety of different ways over the course of his scholarly career. The purpose of this paper is to examine those uses to determine whether the meanings they convey add up to something coherent, and if so, what exactly that meaning was.     

Likelihood inference for exchangeable continuous data with covariates and varying cluster sizes; use of the Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern model

This article investigates the Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern class of models for exchangeable continuous data. We show how the model specification can account for both individual and cluster level covariates, we derive insights from comparisons with the multivariate normal distribution, and we discuss maximum likelihood inference when a sample of independent clusters of varying sizes is available. We propose a method for maximum likelihood estimation which is an alternative to direct numerical maximization of the likelihood that sometimes exhibits non-convergence problems. We describe an algorithm for generating samples from the exchangeable multivariate Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern distribution with any marginals, using the structural properties of the distribution. Finally, we present the results of a simulation study designed to assess the properties of the maximum likelihood estimators, and we illustrate the use of the FGM distributions with the analysis of a small data set from a developmental toxicity study.     

Do Generous Welfare States Generate Efficiency Gains which Counterbalance Short Run Losses? Testing Downside Risk Theory with Economic Panel Data for the U.S., Germany and The Netherlands

The purpose of the paper is to assess the theory that the downside risk insurance provided by more generous welfare states generates long run efficiency gains, which counterbalance the short run efficiency losses caused by work disincentives in these states (Feldstein 1974, 1976; Sinn 1995, 1996). Testing downside risk theory requires long term data, so the paper makes use of the three longest running national socio-economic panel surveys. These are the American Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID, 1968-), the German Socio-Economic Panel (1984-) and the Dutch Socio-Economic Panel (SEP, 1984-). The paper focusses on prime age households (heads 25–59) and assesses their participation in and returns to adult education and job training. Our results indicate some support for the theory in so far as Dutch and German prime age adults, living in more generous welfare states, were much more likely than Americans to take the risk of foregoing current earnings and investing in additional education. In all three countries returns on investment were substantial.

Pet Dogs Benefit Owners’ Health: A ‘Natural Experiment’ in China

This paper reports results from a ‘natural experiment’ taking place in China on the impact of dogs on owners’ health. Previous Western research has reported modest health benefits, but results have remained controversial. In China pets were banned in urban areas until 1992. Since then dog ownership has grown quite rapidly in the major cities, especially among younger women. In these quasi-experimental conditions, we hypothesise that dog ownership will show greater health benefits than in the West. Results are given from a survey of women aged 25–40 in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou (N = 3031). Half the respondents owned dogs and half did not. Owners reported better health-related outcomes. They exercised more frequently, slept better, had higher self-reported fitness and health, took fewer days off sick from work and were seen less by doctors. The concluding section indicates how these results may be integrated and suggests further research on the potential economic benefits of pets.

Comparing measures of homicide trends: Methodological and substantive differences in the Vital Statistics and Uniform Crime Report time series (1933–1975)

Several Uniform Crime Reports (FBI) and Vital Statistics (NCHS) homicide time series for the United States, 1933–1975, are compared with respect to (a) definitions and collection procedures used; (b) differences in estimating procedures; and (c) substantive differences that result from use of either series. Among the findings from this investigation are that: (1) the sampling procedures employed by the NCHS appear to be superior to those of the FBI; (2) the FBI time series most commonly employed by researchers is discontinuous prior to 1958 due to revision procedures which were instituted at that time. Analyses over time periods which began prior to this year should employ a more accurate FBI time series which is published by the Office of Management and Budget (1973). (3) The specific time period under study may lead to different substantive conclusions with different indicators; (4) the results of statistical analyses of structural equation models contained herein indicate that while the difference is not generally statistically significant, the deterrent effect of execution is consistently estimated to be greater with the Vital Statistics series. This finding has important policy implications if estimates of the number of lives saved by executing prisoners are projected and utilized by policy makers. (5) Neither series indicates serious problems of autocorrelation of disturbances with the exogenous variables employed here; and (6) use of either series for the period after 1949 appears to produce the same substantive results.