Employee turnover forecasting for human resource management based on time series analysis

In some organizations, the hiring lead time is often long due to responding to human resource requirements associated with technical and security constrains. Thus, the human resource departments in these organizations are pretty interested in forecasting employee turnover since a good prediction of employee turnover could help the organizations to minimize the costs and impacts from the turnover on the operational capabilities and the budget. This study aims to enhance the ability to forecast employee turnover with or without considering the impact of economic indicators. Various time series modelling techniques were used to identify optimal models for effective employee turnover prediction. More than 11-years of monthly turnover data were used to build and validate the proposed models. Compared with other models, a dynamic regression model with additive trend, seasonality, interventions, and a very important economic indicator effectively predicted the turnover with training R²?=?0.77 and holdout R²?=?0.59. The forecasting performance of optimal models confirms that time series modelling approach has the ability to predict employee turnover for the specific scenario observed in our analysis.     

Regression Kink With an Unknown Threshold

This article explores estimation and inference in a regression kink model with an unknown threshold. A regression kink model (or continuous threshold model) is a threshold regression constrained to be everywhere continuous with a kink at an unknown threshold. We present methods for estimation, to test for the presence of the threshold, for inference on the regression parameters, and for inference on the regression function. A novel finding is that inference on the regression function is nonstandard since the regression function is a nondifferentiable function of the parameters. We apply recently developed methods for inference on nondifferentiable functions. The theory is illustrated by an application to the growth and debt problem introduced by Reinhart and Rogoff, using their long-span time-series for the United States.     

Understanding Persistent Food Insecurity: A Paradox of Place and Circumstance

Survey data from a U.S. Department of Agriculture funded multi-state longitudinal project revealed a paradox where rural low-income families from states considered prosperous were persistently more food insecure than similar families from less prosperous states. An examination of quantitative and qualitative data found that families in the food insecure states were more likely to experience greater material hardship and incur greater housing costs than families in the food secure states. Families in the food insecure states, however, did not have lower per capita median incomes or lower life satisfaction than those in the food secure states. A wide range of strategies to cope with food insecurity reported by families in both food insecure and food secure states was examined using the Family Ecological Systems Theory. Families in the food insecure states used several risky consumption reduction strategies such as curbing their appetite and using triage. Families in the food secure states, on the other hand, employed positive techniques involving their human capital.

以私人手段解决纠纷、伸张正义的习惯法:对一个无需国家强制的法律与秩序的现代体系的描述

习惯法作为互惠合作的结果,是一种不成文的社会契约,如同语言一样,它是经过长时间的互动自发产生的。在惩罚破坏法律者方面,相较于现代的惩罚方式,民间执行习惯法倾向于恢复原状,并把罚款作为主要的惩罚方式。同时在这一法律体系下有着众多的契约安排,以保护私人的财产和安全。私有法院的产生极大地促进了习惯法标准化的进程,同时流放、抵制认可、私有监狱和罚款征收对于习惯法的遵守亦有莫大的帮助。     

Testing Family Stress and Family Investment Explanations for Conduct Problems Among African American Adolescents

The recent U.S. recession has resulted in higher rates of unemployment, underemployment, and child poverty, with African Americans disproportionately represented among the financially disadvantaged. Although past research has established the relationship between family financial hardship and various child adjustment problems, African Americans remain an understudied group. In the current study the authors used longitudinal data from the Family and Community Health Study (n = 422), an all African American sample, to investigate the impact of economic distress on adolescent conduct problems. They examined the extent to which this relationship can be explained by 2 frequently employed models: (a) the family stress model and (b) the family investment model. The authors extend past research by assessing the relative contributions of each model while controlling for the paths proposed by the other model. The results suggest that the family processes identified by the family stress model provide a more accurate explanation for why economic hardship is associated with increased conduct problems among African American adolescents.     

Communicatively Managing Religious Identity Difference in Parent-Child Relationships: The Role of Accommodative and Nonaccommodative Communication

Guided by Communication Accommodation Theory, we examine the communicative management of religious difference in parent-child relationships. Using survey data from emerging adults (N = 409), we found that religious difference is associated with decreases in relational satisfaction and shared family identity. Further, parents’ religious communication has the potential to promote relational well-being. Accommodative communication (religious-specific supportive communication and respecting divergent values) was associated with increases in relational satisfaction and shared family identity. Two forms of nonaccommodative communication (inappropriate self-disclosure and emphasizing divergent values) were associated with decreases with relational satisfaction and shared family identity; giving unwanted advice was associated with decreases in relational satisfaction but not shared family identity. Giving unwanted advice moderated the relationship between religious difference and relational satisfaction. Differences were also discovered between families with inter- and intrafaith parental dyads. Findings suggest theoretical and methodological contributions to family communication, religious, and intergroup research.     

Explaining Breadth and Depth of Employee Voice across Firms: A Voice Factor Demand Model

This paper develops a model which explains breadth and depth of firms’ demand for employee voice. The theory innovation is to model employee voice as a factor input in production and derive a voice demand curve. Differences in voice productivity determinants across firms act as shift factors and cause cross-section variation in voice demand curves which translates into an empirically observable voice frequency distribution. Insights from institutional economics are incorporated to show that transition from a nonunion to union form of voice may cause a large discontinuity in the demand curve. Other contributions include: sharpened definition and delineation of the employee voice construct, use of the voice frequency distribution as a dependent variable in empirical research, graphical representation of the firm’s benefit-cost choice of voice, distinction between employee voice as communication and influence (muscle) and graphical demonstration of conditions under which one is preferred to the other, clarification of the participation/representation gap concept, and policy insights regarding pros and cons of the regulation of employee voice in American labor law.     

‘It's just like another home,just another family,so it's nae different’ Children's voices in kinship care: a research study about the experience of children in kinship care in Scotland

Growing acknowledgement of the importance of the role of kinship carers in caring and supporting children and young people in Scotland has led to a burgeoning of research on this topic. However, most research has tended to focus on the role of kinship carers. A significant gap has been direct studies into the views and experiences of children and young people living with relatives or friends. This paper seeks to address this by drawing on the findings from a small‐scale qualitative collaborative research project with 12 children and young people living in informal and formal kinship care in the Northeast of Scotland. The literature on foster and kinship care is reviewed and key themes identified. The qualitative research data is outlined employing a thematic analysis approach. The key findings are analysed with a view to the potential implications for policy and practice. The paper concludes with proposals for potential future research.