Heavy episodic drinking and college entrance

The college environment appears to encourage heavy drinking. Consequently, correlates of student drinking were assessed at college entrance. First-semester freshmen (N = 520, 54 percent women) completed self-report measures of social affiliation and self/peer drinking for high school and college. Analyses indicated that: 1) increased drinking at college entrance mirrored perceived increases by peers, 2) perceptions of peer drinking were robustly overestimated with women displaying the larger overestimation bias; and 3) social affiliation was associated with men's drinking and moderated its relation to perceived peer drinking at college entrance. These results advance understanding of the manner in which heavy drinking patterns emerge as men and women enter college, and campus programs that consider these factors may better promote health and reduce the harms associated with heavy drinking among college students.     

Identifying Social Interactions Through Conditional Variance Restrictions

This paper proposes a new method for identifying social interactions using conditional variance restrictions. The method provides a consistent estimate of the social multiplier when social interactions take the “linear‐in‐means” form (Manski (1993)). When social interactions are not of the linear‐in‐means form, the estimator, under certain conditions, continues to form the basis of a consistent test of the no social interactions null with correct large sample size. The methods are illustrated using data from the Tennessee class size reduction experiment Project STAR. The application suggests that differences in peer group quality were an important source of individual‐level variation in the academic achievement of Project STAR kindergarten students.     

Conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program HRA Procedure

This paper presents a limited assessment of the conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) human reliability analysis (HRA) procedure described in NUREG/CR-4772. The data for this study are derived from simulator examination reports from the NRC requalification examination cycle for nuclear power plant operators. The ASEP procedure was used to estimate human error probability (HEP) values for critical tasks, and the HEP results were compared with the failure rates observed in the examinations. The ASEP procedure was applied by PNNL operator license examiners who supplemented the limited information in the examination reports with expert judgment based upon their extensive simulator examination experience. Comparison of the average of the ASEP HEP values with the fraction of the population actually failed and demonstrated that the ASEP HEP values are larger (conservative) by a statistically significant average factor of two. Partitioning of tasks into subgroups based on the ASEP HEP values and comparison of the subgroup average ASEP HEP values with observed subgroup failure rates showed little or no conservatism for small ASEP HEP values, but considerable conservatism for larger ASEP HEP values.     

Personalization of Mail Surveys for General Public and Populations with a Group Identity: Results from Nine Studies*

Abstract The effect of personalization on mail survey response rates was examined in nine studies that included 17 comparisons under several research conditions. A study of this variable across multiple experiments in five agricultural experiment stations was undertaken because of conflicting results from previous research and from concern that the effectiveness of personalization might have decreased over time. Results show that, while response to general public surveys appeared to increase modestly across all treatment groups, there was no positive effect for populations in which a group identity (e.g., Dear Oregon Gardner or Dear ATV Owner) is employed to address respondents in cover letters. Personalization appears to remain useful for improving response in surveys of the general public.     

Providing mental health services to older people living in rural communities

Rural dwelling elders who experience mental health problems often have difficulty finding help since rural communities often lack adequate mental health service providers. This paper reports on the initial phase of a 5-year, interdisciplinary clinical research study that is testing the effectiveness of providing a home delivered, therapeutic psychosocial intervention, aimed at improving the emotional wellbeing and the quality of life of medically frail elders who live in rural communities. In the early phases of this study, the clinical research team encountered a number of interesting and often unanticipated challenges as it attempted to recruit study participants and provide services to them. In this article, we examine these challenges and share what we have learned so far about providing mental health services to elderly persons living in rural environments.     

A value of information framework for assessing the trade-offs associated with uncertainty,duration, and cost of chemical toxicity testing

A number of investigators have explored the use of value of information (VOI) analysis to evaluate alternative information collection procedures in diverse decision-making contexts. This paper presents an analytic framework for determining the value of toxicity information used in risk-based decision making. The framework is specifically designed to explore the trade-offs between cost, timeliness, and uncertainty reduction associated with different toxicity-testing methodologies. The use of the proposed framework is demonstrated by two illustrative applications which, although based on simplified assumptions, show the insights that can be obtained through the use of VOI analysis. Specifically, these results suggest that timeliness of information collection has a significant impact on estimates of the VOI of chemical toxicity tests, even in the presence of smaller reductions in uncertainty. The framework introduces the concept of the expected value of delayed sample information, as an extension to the usual expected value of sample information, to accommodate the reductions in value resulting from delayed decision making. Our analysis also suggests that lower cost and higher throughput testing also may be beneficial in terms of public health benefits by increasing the number of substances that can be evaluated within a given budget. When the relative value is expressed in terms of return-on-investment per testing strategy, the differences can be substantial.     

Governance in Public-Private Community Health Partnerships: A Survey of the Community Care Network SM Demonstration Sites

This review of the governance practices of twenty-five public-private partnerships involved in addressing a broad range of community health needs shows that governance in public-private community partnerships departs significantly from traditional notions of institutional governance. Governance structures and degrees of progress toward governance goals vary widely and appear to be systematically related to the organization, composition, location, and activity of each partnership.     

Engaging Geography at Every Street Corner: Using Place-Names as Critical Heuristic in Social Studies

In this article I explore an often overlooked feature of everyday life that can serve as a powerful heuristic for students to engage history and geograhpy critically: everyday place-names. Drawing on scholarship in critical toponymy, I explore how the city-text—the past as it is overlaid on top of the geography of the community through place-names—serves to commemorate particular histories that are often simultaneously exclusionary and taken-for-granted. Outlining three of the city-text's primary features—its unconventional narrative structure that emphasizes a worldview, its existence as a manifestation of state control over commemoration in the community, and its exclusive focus on heroism—I suggest that social studies classrooms be sites from which students critically engage the everyday city-texts of their own communities as a way of fostering critical thinking skills and commitments to historical and geographic critique.     

CATASTROPHE AND RATIONAL POLICY: CASE OF NATIONAL SECURITY

Predicting catastrophes involves heavy‐tailed distributions with no mean, eluding proactive policy as expected cost‐benefit analysis fails. We study US government counterterrorism policy, given heightened risk of terrorism. But terrorism also involves human behavior. We synthesize the behavioral and statistical aspects in an adversary‐defender game. Calibration to extensive data shows that where a Weibull distribution is the best predictor, US counterterrorism policy is rational (and optimal). Here, we estimate the adversary's unobserved variables, e.g., difficulty of an attack. We also find cases where the best predictor is a Generalized‐Pareto with no finite mean and rational policy fails. Here, we offer “work‐arounds”. (JEL H56, D81, C46)