Bayesian Inference for Contact Networks Given Epidemic Data

Abstract. In this article, we estimate the parameters of a simple random network and a stochastic epidemic on that network using data consisting of recovery times of infected hosts. The SEIR epidemic model we fit has exponentially distributed transmission times with Gamma distributed exposed and infectious periods on a network where every edge exists with the same probability, independent of other edges. We employ a Bayesian framework and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration to make estimates of the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters. We discuss the accuracy of the parameter estimates under various prior assumptions and show that it is possible in many scientifically interesting cases to accurately recover the parameters. We demonstrate our approach by studying a measles outbreak in Hagelloch, Germany, in 1861 consisting of 188 affected individuals. We provide an R package to carry out these analyses, which is available publicly on the Comprehensive R Archive Network.     

Urban Natives and the Nation: Before and After the Royal Commission on Aboriginal Peoples*

Cet article étudie la relation entre la formation de L'État canadien et la construction des identités amérindiennes, au moyen de la fonction légitimante des commissions d'enquête, pour la période allant de la Loi constitutionnelle, 1982 au rapport de la Commission royale sur les peuples autochtones en 1996. Nous examinons, en particulier, dans quelle mesure le rapport de la CRPA « normalise » des narratifs de politique amérindienne déjà présents, les stabilisant en une hiérarchie rigide de revendications qui s'appuie sur le modèle de la nation. L'analyse se concentre sur le positionnement problématique des Amérindiens urbains et des Indiens sans statut face à la « nation », ce qui mène à leur marginalisation dans les débats politiques actuels. This paper examines the relationship between Canadian state formation and the construction of Aboriginal identities via the legitimating function of the public inquiry, for the period from the adoption of the Constitution Act, 1982 to the Report of the Royal Commission on Aboriginal Peoples (1996). Specifically, we examine the extent to which the RCAP Report “normalizes” pre‐existing narratives regarding Aboriginal politics into a rigid hierarchy of claims privileging the nation model and those Aboriginals with a land base. We argue that the nation model is reinforced, legitimized and publicized through the RCAP Report's function as a legitimating tool of the state.     

The 'Subject' in Social Work

Summary Theories of social work are usually defined by reference totheir oppositions regarding the subject in social work and theaims of practice. This position connects up with a dominantview of theories of social work which regards them as opponentsengaged in a struggle to dominate the field. This paper characterizesthis view as a ‘gladiatorial paradigm’ It assaysthe vaidity of this paradigm. lists the main defects, and setsout the case for a structuralist approach to social work.     

Competence and Discipline in Professional Formation

Correspondence to Dr C Clark, Department of Social Work, The University of Edinburgh, Adam Ferguson Building, George Square, Edinburgh EH8 9LL. Summary This paper argues that ‘competence’ is inadequateas the founding principle of professional knowledge, and consequentlythe attempt to build professional training on it is misguided.Besides the unresolved conceptual issues, the competence approachis radically undermined by the absence of an adequate researchbase necessary to validate concepts of competence and measuresof individuals' competences. Drawing on the author's researchon how practitioners use knowledge and theory in practice, itis shown that the attempt to reduce good professional practiceto a codified set of competences is mistaken; it does not properlyrecognize the constant need for creative solutions to poorlyunderstood problems. The idea of professional discipline isexplored, which, it is argued, better describes the characterof the knowledge and skills which practitioners should aim tomaster.     

Long-term Mortality Patterns in Chinese History: Evidence from a Recorded Clan Population

This paper addresses the emerging interest in the relationship between homeostatic models and demographic transition theory. Firstly, it considers the nature of fertility measurement and concepts. The paper then goes on to examine evidence from pre-transitional societies in which demographic regimes have been most thoroughly studied, summarizing what is known about their character. The nature and current status of homeostatic theories in demography and the institutional supports of pre-transitional regimes are considered. The implications of the findings on pre-transitional populations for transition theory are then discussed. The paper concludes with suggestions for ways in which studies of transition within a framework of homeostatic regimes could be developed.     

Men Who Buy Sex: A Survey in the Greater Vancouver Regional District*

Les auteurs de cet article passent en revue la documentation canadienne sur les hommes qui achètent des services sexuels et présentent les résultats d'une enquête autoadministrée auprès de 80 de ces hommes, enquête qui a été réalisée dans le Grand Vancouver. l'article décrit les caractéristiques démographiques générates de l'échantillon et certains aspects de leur comportement d'achat sexuel. En raison de l'inquiétude accrue concernant le grand nombre de travailleurs du sexe sur la rue qui ont disparu ou qui ont ete tues, et de façon à apporter quelques réflexions au débat sur le prohibitionnisme qui allègue que la violence est omniprésente dans la prostitution, les auteurs examinent les actes de violence commis sur les travailleurs du sexe et autres personnes, et déclarés par eux. Ils se penchent également sur les expériences des hommes qui ont été victimes de violence de la part de travailleurs du sexe. This paper reviews the Canadian literature on men who purchase sexual services and presents the results of a self‐administered survey conducted in Greater Vancouver of 80 such men. The paper describes the general demographic characteristics of the sample and selected aspects of their sex‐buying behaviour. Because of heightened concern about the large number of street‐level sex workers who have gone missing or been murdered, and in order to offer some reflections on the prohibitionist argument that violence in prostitution is ubiquitous, the paper examines the self‐reported commission of violence against sex workers and other people. We also examine their experiences of being victimized by sex workers.     

More than a game: globalization and the post‐Westernization of world cricket

Abstract In this article I argue that, rather than focusing on the global diffusion of cricket and the reasons why it has been adopted in some countries but not others, the relationship between globalization and cricket is better understood in terms of the post‐Westernization of the international game. The post‐Westernization of cricket is associated with the rise to prominence of the One‐Day International (ODI) vis‐à‐vis the more traditional Test match format and this, in turn, is associated with a shift in the balance of administrative power away from Lord's (in London) towards Asian cricket, centred on India, and the relocation of the ICC to Dubai. In this shift, the ODI has been utilized by India as the means to prise power away from the traditional centres.     

Social Work Today

Correspondence to Chris Jones, Department of Social Work and Community Studies, University of Central Lancashire, Preston PR1 2TQ Summary This paper argues that over the last fifteen years social workin Britain has undergone a significant transformation. Underincreasing attack, both in the media and from government andits new right ideologues, social work has faced an increasinglyimpoverished client group with fewer resources and growing uncertaintyabout its legitimate role. In this context, legislative, administrativeand financial changes have pushed social work into an increasinglyantagonistic relationship with clients and have left it demoralizedand without a clear sense of direction. The paper looks at theway this change has come about and argues that it has profoundimplications for the future of social work in the reduced welfarestate of the 1990s.     

Child Abuse: Risks and Resources

Correspondence to Chris Mills, Dept of Sociology, University of Liverpool, Eleanor Rathbonr Building, Myrtle Street, Liverpool L69 38X. Summary This article is based on observation of 55 child abuse caseconferences held in one metropolitan borough between 1981 and1984. In the past criticism of such conferences has focussedon issues such as inter-departmental rivalry and group dynamics.However, the focus of this study was on the rationality of thedecision-making process. It was found that were few explicit criteria used for makingdecision. In particular the role of the central child abuseregister was found to confuse the situation. Suggestions forimprovements are put forward with paticular emphains on therisk factors involved in individual cases and the need to ensurethat resources appropriate to the degree of estimated risk aremade available.