ISLANDS, INDEXATION AND MONETARY POLICY

This paper develops a synthesized macroeconomic model that incorporates the local-global informational asymmetries of an "islands" economy into a setting characterized by endogenous wage indexation. In such an economy, agents are unable both to filter out the separate influences of demand and supply shocks on observed output prices and to distinguish between the separate price effects of local and aggregate disturbances, so that optimal wage indexation depends upon both the variances of supply and demand disturbances and the information-conditioned forecasts of agents. As a result, optimal monetary policy generally depends upon the variances of local and aggregate supply and demand.     

MARKET ENFORCED INFORMATION ASYMMETRY: A STUDY OF CLAIMING RACES

This is a study of complementary markets. The race track polices the betting market with information revealed in a 'claiming horse' market. This policing reduces the adverse consequences of asymmetric information: experts in identifying horses and fraud are deterred from biasing betting odds against bettors at large. Consequently, bettors specialize in evaluating published race information. This 'monitoring' theory is compared to a competing theory of claim races as a self-assessed horse market. Parametric data is used to evaluate each theory. Institutional details also provide a test of each theory.     

Local Authority Intake Teams

Summary Amongst the many developments in social services organisationin the decade since Seebohm, specialist Intake Teams responsiblefor all initial referrals and short term work received by anArea Team, remain a popular form of local organization. Thispaper describes a small national survey of English local authoritiesto collect information on both intake teams and their long termcounterparts, and briefly outlines some of the major findings.The survey produced a broad picture of both the present structureof local authority fieldwork departments, and the personal characteristicsof social workers and their team leaders. The paper goes onto examine the relationship between intake and long term teams,particularly in terms of referral rates, relative caseloadsand the case transfer process; and concludes with an outlineof teams satisfaction with the intake system, and some indicationsof desired future developments.     

EXPLAINING PLANT-LEVEL DIFFERENCES IN MANUFACTURING OVERHEAD: STRUCTURAL AND EXECUTIONAL COST DRIVERS IN THE WORLD AUTO INDUSTRY

Using data from 62 automobile assembly plants worldwide, we examine the extent to which various structural cost drivers (plant scale, automation, and product mix complexity) and exe-cutionalcost drivers (product manufacturability, management policies, and production practices) account for plant-level differences in manufacturing overhead. Our analysis of structural drivers finds that overhead hours per vehicle are negatively associated with production volumes, consistent with economies of scale in overhead functions. However, automation appears to have little influence on overhead levels. Product mix complexity's effect on overhead requirements varies with the complexity's form and the plant's manufacturing capabilities. Option and parts complexity (measures of peripheral and intermediate product variety) both exhibit adverse effects on overhead, reflecting the considerable logistical, coordination, and supervisory challenges that accompany an increased number of parts and more complex manufacturing tasks. In contrast, model mix complexity (a measure of fundamental variety) appears to have little impact on direct or overhead labor requirements in auto assembly plants. Our analysis of executional drivers provides empirical support for the claim that advanced manufacturing practices such as the reduction of buffers, multiskilled production workers, and the use of teams can lower overhead costs. We also find preliminary evidence that the lower overhead costs in Japanese auto assembly plants are due primarily to the use of multiskilled work teams and the shifting of traditional overhead activities to production workers. Overall, our results indicate that manufacturing overhead is a function not only of the structural cost drivers that have dominated the academic literature but also of executional cost drivers that are harder to duplicate and therefore potentially more valuable for achieving competitive advantage.     

Sophistication and the Antecedents of Whites' Racial Policy Attitudes: Racism, Ideology, and Affirmative Action in America

A number of researchers have argued that the effects of prejudiceon the racial policy attitudes and general political beliefsof white Americans may be restricted to the poorly educatedand politically unsophisticated. In contrast, rather than beingmotivated by prejudice, the racial policy attitudes and ideologicalvalues of the politically sophisticated white Americans shouldbe more firmly informed and motivated by the tolerant valuesat the heart of American political culture. These values includesuch things as individualism, notions of fair play, and devotionto the principle of equality of opportunity. We tested thishypothesis using white respondents from the 1986 and 1992 NationalElection Studies. Our evidence generally indicated that racialpolicy attitudes and political ideology were more powerfullyassociated with ideologies of racial dominance and superiorityamong politically sophisticated white Americans than among politicalunsophisticated white Americans. Moreover, even among the sophisticated,we found that various forms of egalitarianism predicted supportfor—affirmative action and that support for equal opportunityis not uniformly distributed across the political spectrum.     

The Welfare of the Child: An Examination of Judicial Opinion about Medical and Social Work Evidence in Adoption Cases

Summary An examination has been made of judicial decisions concerningadoption and custody of children since 1926. It has been foundthat, despite the legal principle that the 'welfare of the child'should be paramount, the law has been interpreted by judgesin ways at variance with the judgements of doctors and socialworkers about the child's welfare As late as 1969, by the orderof a Judge, a child was removed from adoptive parents and givento the jurisdiction of her natural father, who had strangledthe child's mother. The Law Lords in 1971 decided that medicalevidence about the harmful effects of a child's removal froma secure foster home was generally unnecessary, Judges beingable to decide these issues themselves. Cases are cited, whichhave not reached the courts, of children being taken from securefoster homes and placed in unsuitable surroundings by naturalparents. Some proposals for a change of law are proposed, aswell as in social work practice. The principle formulated isthat greater stress should be laid on the mental health andfuture well-being of the child, than on parental rights overthe child     

A Reconviction Predictor for Probationers

Correspondence to Ken Pease, Professor of Criminology, University of Manchester, Faculty of Economic and Social Studies, Manchester M13 9PL. Summary This paper reports the development of a predictor of reconvictionsuitable for use with probationers. The predictor, based onthe Burgess method of prediction, was developed using a sampleof 750 probation cases and a prediction period of three years.Its predictive power is substantial, being of the same orderas that of the parole predictor (see Nuttall et al., 1977; Ward,1988). Despite the increasing emphasis on offence-focused work in theprobation service, the work of the service is not routinelyor comprehensively measured in terms of its alteration of criminalcareers. By detailing the development of the predictor, andwelcoming experimentation with it amongst individual area probationservices, it is hoped that this paper will encourage a morefocused consideration of the effect of probation supervisionon offending behaviour, and therein facilitate the incorporationof broader service quality issues within performance evaluation.     

A FRAMEWORK FOR THE SYSTEM DESIGN PROCESS1

Much discussion and writing about “systems” is often superficial, glib, and of a non-operational nature. This paper presents a cohesive framework for the process of system design which is felt to be of operational value in the design and management of systems. The framework's central tenet is that all systems are made up of entities and the relationships among the attributes of those entities; and that in designing systems, two processes are used, inclusion and structuring. Inclusion is concerned with what entities to include in a system and structuring with how their attributes are to be related. The system design process is directed or driven by a set (system) of criteria. Systems must be viewed with a time dimension: evolution will and should take place, both in the systems themselves and, more importantly, in the criteria that drive the design and evolution of those systems. In this framework, all problem solvers can usefully regard themselves as system designers. Presentation of the framework is followed by examples, discussion of the criteria set, system design tools, and some implications for teachers and practitioners.