Shrinking Kin Networks in Italy Due to Sustained Low Fertility

Among the closely watched demographic trends of thelate 20th Century is a pronounced drop in fertilityrates throughout much of the world. Italy presents aparticularly interesting case for study: in 1960,Italy's TFR was 2.41, whereas by 1995 it had fallen to1.17. According to United Nations projections, by 2050Italy will be the second oldest country in the world,with 3.4 persons aged 60 or older per person under 15years of age. Besides overall population ageing,another implication of sustained low fertility issmaller families and kin groups. We investigate theconsequences of projected changes in Italy's birth anddeath rates on the composition of kin groups usingmicrosimulation techniques. Using a startingpopulation taken from the 1994 ``Indagine Multiscoposulle Famiglie' survey, and projected rates ofmortality and fertility by age and parity produced bythe Italian Institute of Statistics, we simulate thepath of kin-group patterns in Italy during the period1994–2050. While we reproduce the aggregate populationpatterns found in official projections, we conduct ourestimates at the ``micro' level, keeping track of therelationships between individuals that underlie kingroup patterns. We show the effects of the demographictrends on the existence of daughters and sons forolder mothers, on the number of sisters and brotherswith whom an adult woman could share theresponsibilities of caring an elderly mother, and theeffect of the joint action of the increase inlongevity and the mean age at fertility on theproportion of adult women with a living mother.     

Avoiding 'data snooping' in multilevel and mixed effects models

Summary.  Multilevel or mixed effects models are commonly applied to hierarchical data. The level 2 residuals, which are otherwise known as random effects, are often of both substantive and diagnostic interest. Substantively, they are frequently used for institutional comparisons or rankings. Diagnostically, they are used to assess the model assumptions at the group level. Inference on the level 2 residuals, however, typically does not account for 'data snooping', i.e. for the harmful effects of carrying out a multitude of hypothesis tests at the same time. We provide a very general framework that encompasses both of the following inference problems: inference on the 'absolute' level 2 residuals to determine which are significantly different from 0, and inference on any prespecified number of pairwise comparisons. Thus, the user has the choice of testing the comparisons of interest. As our methods are flexible with respect to the estimation method that is invoked, the user may choose the desired estimation method accordingly. We demonstrate the methods with the London education authority data, the wafer data and the National Educational Longitudinal Study data.     

The Effects of Childhood Sexual Abuse and Other Trauma on Drug Court Participants

Within the context of a larger study of drug court participants, this study examined the impact of traumatic experiences on psychiatric distress and on court outcomes. In the analyses, the participants (n = 229) were separated into 3 groups: childhood sexual abuse (CSA; n = 18), other trauma (n = 134), and no trauma (n = 77). The CSA group had higher mean scores on depression, anxiety, panic disorder, social phobia, somatization, and posttraumatic stress disorder than the other trauma group. Path analyses suggest that a history of trauma is a positive predictor of psychiatric distress and negative court events (positive urine screens, sanctions, etc.), with indirect effects on substance abuse severity, and failure in the drug court. These results suggest a need for the initial assessment procedure in drug courts to include a screening for trauma history, including CSA. They also suggest a need for trauma-informed care within drug courts.     

Work and health in Gnosjö: a longitudinal study

This study includes women and men born between 1934 and 1953 in the municipality of Gnosj? in the south of Sweden and covers the period 1998 to 2001. Compared with the country, a large proportion of the population of the municipality of Gnosj? works in the manufacturing industry. The aim was to examine associations between physical and psychological stress factors in and outside work, sickness absence and cardiovascular and musculoskeletal diseases, from a gender perspective. Information about working conditions and other aspect of life was collected by a questionnaire in 1998, and register data about sickness absence, cardiovascular diseases and musculoskeletal diseases 1999-2001. The impact on sickness absence consisted mainly of demand and control aspects of the psychosocial working conditions, but also temporary employment and of low sense of coherence. In relation to musculoskeletal health, demand and control was important among women, but not among men. Very few physical factors in the work environment were related to musculoskeletal diseases. Low sense of coherence had an impact also on musculoskeletal diseases. Cardiovascular diseases among women were influenced by demand and control and by life style related factors. We hope that the knowledge gained from our study makes it possible to develop better tools for both the preventive work in Gnosj? and for the rehabilitation of the people already ill. Because of our holistic approach, both public health aspects and working life aspects are covered. The municipality of Gnosj? is small, and therefore foreseeable in a way that many municipalities are not. Still, we do believe that our finding, in this longitudinal study, can be of value also in the public efforts and the efforts to develop adequate and successful rehabilitation approaches.     

The Creation of an Unsolicited Organization: Victim Support Sweden

The aim of this study is to understand how a new nationwide nonprofit organization, Victim Support Sweden (VSS), emerged in just a few years without public or political demand. In this qualitative study, we reconstruct and follow the first years of the organization. The study is based on a content analysis of VSS’s archival documents from 1988 to 1992 and retrospective interviews with key persons. The results acknowledge the power of entrepreneurs in establishing the organization. The entrepreneurs used their skills, engagement, and backgrounds to “make sense” of the organization, even though there were no crime victims calling for support. They combined logics from adjacent fields and created a specific new “victim support logic.” Thereafter, the logic spread quickly through the entrepreneurs’ lobbying of politicians and education of local victim support volunteers.     

An important event in Soviet Yiddish cultural life: The new Russian‐Yiddish dictionary

M. A. Shapiro, I. G. Spivak and M. Ya. Shulman (eds.). Russko‐evreysky (idish) slovar. Rusish‐Yidisher Verterbukh (Russian‐Yiddish Dictionary). Moscow: Russky yazyk, 1984. 720 pp. Approx. 40,000 words. 20,000 copies. 8.80 roubles.