Bayesian robustness in bidimensional models: Prior independence

When θ is a multidimensional parameter, the issue of prior dependence or independence of coordinates is a serious concern. This is especially true in robust Bayesian analysis; Lavine et al. (J. Amer. Statist. Assoc.86, 964–971 (1991)) show that allowing a wide range of prior dependencies among coordinates can result in near vacuous conclusions. It is sometimes possible, however, to make confidently the judgement that the coordinates of θ are independent a priori and, when this can be done, robust Bayesian conclusions improve dramatically. In this paper, it is shown how to incorporate the independence assumption into robust Bayesian analysis involving -contamination and density band classes of priors. Attention is restricted to the case θ = (θ₁, θ₂) for clarity, although the ideas generalize.     

Toward Mutual Support: A Task Analysis of the Relational Justice Approach to Infidelity

Gender, culture, and power issues are intrinsic to the etiology of infidelity, but the clinical literature offers little guidance on how to work with these concerns. The Relational Justice Approach (RJA) to infidelity (Williams, Family Process, 2011, 50, 516) uniquely places gender and power issues at the heart of clinical change; however, this approach has not been systematically studied. Therefore a qualitative task analysis was utilized to understand how change occurs in RJA. The findings indicated four necessary tasks: (a) creating an equitable foundation for healing, (b) creating space for alternate gender discourse, (c) pursuing relational responsibility of powerful partner, and (d) new experience of mutual support. Therapists' attention to power dynamics that organize couple relationships, leadership in intervening in power processes, and socio‐cultural attunement to gender discourses were foundational to this work. These findings help clarify the processes by which mutual healing from the trauma of infidelity may occur and offer empirically based actions that therapists can take to facilitate mutual support.     

Risk Perception Among Smokers: A Qualitative Study

The aim of this qualitative study is to identify the dimensions people used to assess the risk of smoking and then compare them with those used by health professionals in primary healthcare. Five discussion groups were conducted. The field work was carried out in Barcelona (Spain), from February 2005 to January 2006. Data were analyzed following a semantic‐thematic categorical content analysis (ACC‐ts). Results showed that people tend to employ stereotypical discourses when evaluating the risk of smoking. Similarly, they reassess the risk in the context of their life experience and incorporate new nuances to the arguments sustaining their behavior. Once this reassessment takes place, the decision to continue smoking emerges, and smokers come up with additional arguments justifying their habit (i.e., age, benefits related to costs). Professionals are aware of this process and its multidimensional nature. Nevertheless, their discourse loses this multidimensional feature when discussing the strategies they use at smoking cessation interventions. This qualitative study increases the understanding of various meanings that people attribute to their life experience. These assumptions may be useful for developing health practices that are closer to people. As a practical utility of these results, it would be interesting to apply a preliminary assessment of the different meanings that people attribute to smoking from their life context in risk communication.     

《北美自由贸易协定》是中国的良好范例吗?——来自墨西哥和美国的经验

因为金融与粮食双重危机,中国面临着诸多挑战.中国为战胜这些挑战而做出的努力主要体现在其国际贸易谈判中,而这一谈判基于农业(农产品)贸易自由化有益于南方国家农民的理念.作为全球或地区性贸易协定范式,<北美自由贸易协定>深受美国贸易官员青睐,其在美国与墨西哥贸易中的实际影响,或许对中国未来参与双边或多边贸易,协调环境、社会、经济发展关系,正确发挥国家干预力量等能提供借鉴意义.     

Can better parenting be achieved through short prevention programs? The challenge of universal prevention through Strengthening Families Program 11–14

With the increase in substance use by young people in recent years' there has been a growth in evidence‐based programs aimed at preventing this problem. This study aims to assess possible changes in family and parental dynamics among families taking part in a short (6‐session) universal program. These changes might act as protective factors for families in preventing substance use. A quasi‐experimental design was used' with pretest and posttest evaluations. The participating schools meeting the inclusion criteria were randomly assigned to the experimental or control group. The sample was made up of 16 experimental groups and 17 control groups' with the participation of 353 parents and 289 youths. The results confirm the strengthening of the families by improving the following key components of parenting: resilience' involvement' family conflicts' and positive parenting. Reinforcing parenting skills through a short program is a good strategy to take' ensuring high levels of adherence (86.40% retention of the initial sample). Hence future universal prevention programs must not just set their sights on high levels of effectiveness' but also on efficiency.     

Frequentist and Bayesian approaches for a joint model for prostate cancer risk and longitudinal prostate-specific antigen data

The paper describes the use of frequentist and Bayesian shared-parameter joint models of longitudinal measurements of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and the risk of prostate cancer (PCa). The motivating dataset corresponds to the screening arm of the Spanish branch of the European Randomized Screening for Prostate Cancer study. The results show that PSA is highly associated with the risk of being diagnosed with PCa and that there is an age-varying effect of PSA on PCa risk. Both the frequentist and Bayesian paradigms produced very close parameter estimates and subsequent 95% confidence and credibility intervals. Dynamic estimations of disease-free probabilities obtained using Bayesian inference highlight the potential of joint models to guide personalized risk-based screening strategies.     

Veto in fixed agenda social choice correspondences

In this paper we analyze the relationship between social decision functions (SDF) and fixed agenda social choice correspondences (fixed agenda SCC), satisfying some rationality conditions (such as Pareto, Independence, Monotonicity, Neutrality or Anonimity), with the aim of translating known results on the existence of individuals with veto power into the fixed agenda framework (e.g., Blair and Pollak [2], Blau and Deb [3], …). In order to do this, a new independence condition (which we call Pseudo-Independence), as well as a notion of veto power, are introduced in the context of fixed agenda SCC. The conclusion is that, by fixing the agenda, under Independence and Pareto assumptions, the existence of individuals with veto power cannot be avoided. Received: 6 November 1995 / Accepted: 9 September 1997