Flooding Risks: A Comparison of Lay People's Perceptions and Expert's Assessments in Switzerland

Experts on the risk of flooding have developed very detailed maps for different parts of Switzerland that indicate the types of damage possible and the probabilities of adverse events. Four categories of risk severity are defined on the maps, ranging from high risk to no risk. Based on these existing maps, we selected respondents for a mail survey, some from areas high in risk and others from low-risk regions. Respondents answered several questions related to flood risk perception and preparedness. Survey results showed that respondents' risk perceptions were correlated with the experts' risk assessments. Respondents who lived in areas designated "no risk" by the experts had lower perceptions of risk than respondents who lived in areas with higher levels of designated risk. With regard to concrete prevention behavior, no differences between people living in different risk areas were observed. Survey results further suggest that many inhabitants do not know that flooding maps exist for their region. Results suggest that in some regions people overestimate the risks associated with flooding. Consequently, some people are more afraid of flooding than is justified by the facts. Some people show prevention behavior that most likely is superfluous. However, in other regions people underestimate the risks associated with flooding. These people do not show prevention behavior, and they are not well prepared for an adverse event. Furthermore, results suggest that respondents' experiences with flooding are positively related to their perceptions of flood risk. Findings of the present study are in line with the availability heuristic.     

Maximum-likelihood-schätzungen für parameter in homogenen markovschen ketten

A class of homogeneous MARKOV chains with arbitrary intial distributions is considered, which in general contains also the class treated by BILLINGSLEY [2]. The existence of strongly consistent and asymptotically normal maximum-likelihood estimates for unknown parameters is shown. Also the case of a random sample size is treated.     

Current Events in the Secondary School

This article examines children's literature that depicts people undergoing political conflict and war in a post-WWII era. These books portray political conflicts, refugees' relocation, and settlement in different countries. Using these books with drama inspired activities can help students gain awareness and empathetic attitudes toward those in a global community.     

Legal abortions in Roumania

This study investigated the relationship between perceived attributes of the contraceptive sponge and use of this innovative method. Data were collected from a national sample of 779 women: 372 current sponge users and 407 former sponge users. Current users at initial interview also participated in a six‐month follow‐up interview. While in one of two samples current sponge users view attributes of the sponge much more positively than do former users, perceptions of the characteristics of the sponge do not prospectively predict who will later continue or discontinue use. Importance ratings, however, can prospectively and retrospectively discriminate between women who continue to use and those who stop using the sponge. Women who remain sponge users believe it is more important that a method be available without contact with a physician and that it have certain vaginal method conveniences.     

Soziale exklusion und exklusionsempfinden

Der Beitrag prüft die empirische Brauchbarkeit des zwischen Ungleichheitsund Armutsforschung vermittelnden Exklusionsbegriffs. Dazu wird die Unterscheidung zwischen einer „objektiven”, auf eine prek?re Lebenslage zurückgehende Exklusionskonstellation und einem „subjektiven”, den Einzelnen entbettenden Exklusionsempfinden gemacht. Als Dimensionen stressender Prekarit?t werden die Haushalts?konomie, die Erwerbssituation, die soziale Vernetzung, das Institutionenvertrauen und das psychophysische Wohlbefinden bestimmt; das Empfinden von Exklusion wird auf die Zugeh?rigkeit zum gesellschaftlichen Ganzen bezogen. So erh?lt das Exklusionsempfinden die Bedeutung einer ausschlaggebenden Bedingung, die einzelne Exklusionserfahrungen zu einem die ganze Person erfassenden Exklusionssyndrom zusammenfügt und zuspitzt. Vor diesem konzeptionellen Hintergrund wird über die Ergebnisse einer 2003 durchgeführten bundesweiten Telefonbefragung berichtet. Wie der Einzelne sich zum gedachten Ganzen der Gesellschaft verh?lt, ist nicht einfach Ausdruck seiner sozialen Lage. In Abkehr von allen impliziten Widerspiegelungstheorien wird das Gesamt von externen Ressourcen, stressenden Konstellationen und internen Ressourcen zur Erkl?rung des Exklusionsempfindens herangezogen. So kann eine begrifflich klare und empirisch stichhalte Unterscheidung zwischen benachteiligender Marginalit?tsposition und gef?hrdender Exklusionsauffassung gezogen werden.     

Psychological trauma from the perspective of medical history: from Paracelsus to Freud

Psychological traumatisation, as we understand it today, was—in terms of the history of ideas—anticipated by various approaches which have had a lasting impact on modern psychiatry, psychotherapy, and psychosomatic medicine. On the one hand, there is the traditional concept of possession and exorcism with its impressive psychodynamics. On the other hand, there is the theory of the imagination, of an illusion in the sense of a pathogenic infection. Especially the pathological teachings of Paracelsus (sixteenth century) and Johann Baptist van Helmont (seventeenth century)—the latter having advanced the former’s alchemist approach—demonstrate the extent to which demonological, parasitological, and psychological ideas were amalgamated in their “ontological” notion of a disease. Only the introduction of hypnotism in the middle of the nineteenth century made possible a psychological or psychodynamic understanding of psychological trauma in the modern sense. Hypnotism was striving to strictly dissociate from the magical and natural philosophical speculations of mesmerism and its theory was quite compatible with the model representations of scientific medicine. Sigmund Freud was able to tie in his ideas of hysteria and neurosis with this concept and especially to define repression of (infantile) sexuality as the cause of a culturally ineluctable psychological trauma. Finally, a brief survey of medical history is given to explore artificial trauma as a healing factor.