A Bayesian approach to non-parametric monotone function estimation

Summary.  The paper proposes two Bayesian approaches to non-parametric monotone function estimation. The first approach uses a hierarchical Bayes framework and a characterization of smooth monotone functions given by Ramsay that allows unconstrained estimation. The second approach uses a Bayesian regression spline model of Smith and Kohn with a mixture distribution of constrained normal distributions as the prior for the regression coefficients to ensure the monotonicity of the resulting function estimate. The small sample properties of the two function estimators across a range of functions are provided via simulation and compared with existing methods. Asymptotic results are also given that show that Bayesian methods provide consistent function estimators for a large class of smooth functions. An example is provided involving economic demand functions that illustrates the application of the constrained regression spline estimator in the context of a multiple-regression model where two functions are constrained to be monotone.     

Do “Clicker” Educational Sessions Enhance the Effectiveness of a Social Norms Marketing Campaign?

Abstract

Objective: Social norms campaigns are a cost-effective way to reduce high-risk drinking on college campuses. This study compares effectiveness of a “standard” social norms media (SNM) campaign for those with and without exposure to additional educational sessions using audience response technology (“clickers”). Methods: American College Health Association's National College Health Assessment questions are used to evaluate actual and perceived use. Additional survey questions assess individual exposure to the interventions. Results: The authors find “clicker” technology to be more effective than social norms poster media alone in reducing misperceptions of normative alcohol use for those students who attended clicker sessions. Conclusion: Poster SNM campaigns may be most effective when supported by group “clicker” heath-related sessions.     

The Meaning,Antecedents and Outcomes of Employee Engagement: A Narrative Synthesis

The claim that high levels of engagement can enhance organizational performance and individual well‐being has not previously been tested through a systematic review of the evidence. To bring coherence to the diffuse body of literature on engagement, the authors conducted a systematic synthesis of narrative evidence involving 214 studies focused on the meaning, antecedents and outcomes of engagement. The authors identified six distinct conceptualizations of engagement, with the field dominated by the Utrecht Group's ‘work engagement’ construct and measure, and by the theorization of engagement within the ‘job demands–resources’ framework. Five groups of factors served as antecedents to engagement: psychological states; job design; leadership; organizational and team factors; and organizational interventions. Engagement was found to be positively associated with individual morale, task performance, extra‐role performance and organizational performance, and the evidence was most robust in relation to task performance. However, there was an over‐reliance on quantitative, cross‐sectional and self‐report studies within the field, which limited claims of causality. To address controversies over the commonly used measures and concepts in the field and gaps in the evidence‐base, the authors set out an agenda for future research that integrates emerging critical sociological perspectives on engagement with the psychological perspectives that currently dominate the field.     

Acculturative Stress and Mental Health Among Korean Adolescents in the United States

This study investigated Korean-American adolescents' stress related to their acculturation experiences and mental health. A total of 260 Korean-American adolescents from immigrant families (ages 12–18 years) participated in the study. The U.S. born group had a higher level of acculturative stress than the Korea-born group (t = 2.222; df = 258; p < .05). Males reported a higher level of self-esteem than females (t = ?2.112; df = 257; p < .05). Acculturative stress was positively correlated with depression (r = .299; p < .01) and negatively related to self-esteem (r = ?.292; p < .01). Self-esteem was negatively related to depression (r = ?.536; p < .01).     

Protest Group Success: The Impact of Group Characteristics,Social Control,and Context

Abstract

In this study we test eight hypotheses about the relative control of protesters, third parties, and elements of the situation (movement context and confrontation) over two types of protest group success: goal achievement and recognition. A path analysis indicates that two sets of protester-controlled factors decisively affect protest group success: organization and beliefs and goals. Of the two, beliefs and goals is the more significant, although bureaucracy is very important for recognition. For the most part, the impact of protester-controlled factors is not due to the reaction of third parties; however, revolutionary activism, one factor in the realm of beliefs and goals, is a notable exception. Revolutionary activism's negative association with success is largely due to suppression by third parties.     

出生性别比综合治理:有所为,有所不为

从1980年我国出生性别比越过正常值域至今,党和各级政府制订了种种措施进行综合治理,但取得的成效甚微。这一时期我国治理工作的特点有:重视禁止性法律法规的制定,但与之相配套的规章制度比较缺乏;重视目标任务的提出,但落实目标的措施比较缺乏;部门性、专项性规章制度较多,综合性规章制度比较缺乏。今后一段时期内综合治理工作,可以按照避实就虚、避难就易的原则,在大力发展社会经济、建立健全社会养老制度、相关法律法规的制定与完善、加大对两非行为的打击力度等方面有所作为;而在人口生育政策的调整、传统文化的改变等方面有所不为。