预期寿命增长、年龄结构改变与我国国民储蓄率

人口年龄结构趋于老龄化和人均预期寿命逐步增长是目前我国人口发展的两个典型特征,而年龄阶段不同,个人的收入、消费与储蓄行为也不同。基于生命周期理论,在选定相关分析指标的基础上,文章使用我国省际平衡面板数据,实证分析了我国人口预期寿命增长和年龄结构改变对国民储蓄率的影响。分析结论表明,人口预期寿命增长提高了我国国民储蓄率;不考虑时间效应时,幼年人口负担比提高会减少国民储蓄率,而老年人口负担比提高会增加国民储蓄率;在考虑时间效应时,幼年人口负担比提高会增加国民储蓄率,而老年人口负担比提高会减少国民储蓄率。对此,文章给出了合理的解释。通过使用多种估计方法,我们发现所得到的结论是基本稳健的。     

Interval censored and truncated data: Rate of convergence of NPMLE of the density

We consider survival data that are both interval censored and truncated. Under appropriate assumptions on the involved distributions, the censoring, truncation and survival, we prove the consistency of the NPMLE of the density of the survival, and give the rate of convergence. Finally, we give an example where the joint law of the censoring and truncation can be explicitly computed.     

The Importance of Identity in Policy: The Case For and Of Children

This article draws out one of the core reasons why children should be conceived as active agents in research, particularly policy‐related research. The main thesis is that policy inevitably projects and, to an extent, constitutes the subject identities of its intended objects — in this case, that of ‘children’. Drawing on several bodies of theory — the ‘new’ sociology of childhood, identity theory, ‘governmentality’ and theories of discourse — the article shows why not incorporating children’s voices is a problem for social policy, and suggests that the impact of their exclusion has the potential to render policy both inappropriate and non‐responsive.     

Some indications of limits to framing the policy preferences of the civically engaged: Interplay of social capital,race attitudes,and social justice frames

Our experiment, which tested support for a hypothetical social welfare program, found that the civically engaged as a whole were resistant to social justice framing employing universalistic versus particularistic standards. We suggest the lack of a framing effect was due to the use of a preexisting, shared “symbolic racism” frame. Social justice framing did succeed for those whose attitudes toward symbolic racism were ambivalent or neutral. Other factors including sex, income level, political participation, and ideology significantly influenced choice. These results provide some indications of limits to experimental framing of policy preferences of the civically engaged in their institutional settings.     

Les transformations actuelles du régime de l'innovation en Wallonie: une analyse des pôles de compétitivité

Notre contribution propose une grille d'analyse du régime wallon de l'innovation et des transformations dont il est l'objet. Nous mettons en évidence les dynamiques qui ont émergé en Wallonie entre les stakeholders de l'innovation et le régime existant, autour de la mise en place des pôles de compétitivité. L'originalité de notre article repose sur l'utilisation de concepts comme le “macro-récit” ou le “paysage socio-technique” pour interpréter les dynamiques d'une politique publique d'innovation et appréhender la complexité de l'univers discursif, institutionnel, historique, culturel, social et technologique des acteurs en présence. Notre analyse montre qu'une telle approche est nécessaire en complément à une évaluation d'impact traditionnelle pour mesurer les chances de succès de l'implémentation durable de la politique wallonne des pôles de compétitivité. Nous concluons que le modèle d'innovation qui transparait relève d'une appréhension systémique des modes de production de connaissance, mais reste cloisonné dans une logique instrumentale de l'innovation, insuffisante et peu réflexive, maintenant à distance la société et certains stakeholders de l'innovation.     

Intra-household inequality in transitional Russia

The paper proposes an original strategy for analyzing household sharing of income and satisfaction. Using two different subjective questions from the Russian data RLMS (Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey), we assume a correspondence between, first, the perception of income that household members report and their true income sharing, and, second, between their answer to a satisfaction question and their utility. We show that answers given by different members of the household bring pertinent information on income sharing and utility in the household. In particular, we find a significant effect of the female–male wage ratio in reported income perception and satisfaction differentials between household members. Our data covers the transition period (1994–2003) characterized by massive economic and social changes in Russia. We investigate the evolution of intra-household welfare distribution by exploiting the episode of the financial crisis of 1998 to distinguish two periods: pre- and post-crisis. Our empirical strategy consists of applying probit-type models allowing the parameters to change in a discrete manner between two periods and accounting for discrete unobserved heterogeneity.     

Unclaimed Prize Information Biases Perceptions of Winning in Scratch Card Gambling

Unclaimed prize information (i.e., the number of prizes still available to be won) is information commonly provided to scratch card gamblers. However, unless the number of tickets remaining to be purchased is also provided, this information is uninformative. Despite its lack of utility in assisting gamblers in choosing the most favourable type of scratch card to play, we hypothesized that unclaimed prize information would bias participants’ judgments within a scratch card gambling context. In Experiment 1 (N?=?201), we showed that participants are influenced by this information such that they felt more likely to win, were more excited to play, and preferred to hypothetically purchase more of the scratch card with the greatest number of unclaimed prizes. In Experiment 2 (N?=?201), we attempted to ameliorate this bias by providing participants with the number of tickets remaining to be purchased and equating the payback percentages of all three games. The bias, although attenuated, still persisted in these conditions. Finally, in Experiment 3 (N?=?200), we manipulated the hypothetical scratch cards such that games with the highest number of unclaimed prizes were the least favourable, and vice versa. As in Experiment 2, participants still favoured cards with greater numbers of unclaimed prizes. Possible mechanisms underlying this bias are discussed. In conclusion, across three experiments, we demonstrate that salient unclaimed prize information is capable of exerting a strong effect over judgments related to scratch card games.