Bayesian inference and model comparison for asymmetric smooth transition heteroskedastic models

Inference, quantile forecasting and model comparison for an asymmetric double smooth transition heteroskedastic model is investigated. A Bayesian framework in employed and an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme is designed. A mixture prior is proposed that alleviates the usual identifiability problem as the speed of transition parameter tends to zero, and an informative prior for this parameter is suggested, that allows for reliable inference and a proper posterior, despite the non-integrability of the likelihood function. A formal Bayesian posterior model comparison procedure is employed to compare the proposed model with its two limiting cases: the double threshold GARCH and symmetric ARX GARCH models. The proposed methods are illustrated using both simulated and international stock market return series. Some illustrations of the advantages of an adaptive sampling scheme for these models are also provided. Finally, Bayesian forecasting methods are employed in a Value-at-Risk study of the international return series. The results generally favour the proposed smooth transition model and highlight explosive and smooth nonlinear behaviour in financial markets.     

The Struggle for Housing in Rural Venezuela: Ideology,Practice, and Power1

Abstract Little is known about the struggle for housing in rural areas or whether rural housing standards and aspirations resemble those of urban areas. This article, based on field research in Venezuela, analyzes housing ideology as expressed in public policy and housing programs, and in interviews with and actions of rural leaders, employers, government officials, and citizens. Competing housing ideologies co-exist but one—the cement-block house—dominates; although international and urban in origin, the cement-block model is diffused through rural housing agencies and political agendas. Housing practices are neither consistent with nor weaken the dominant ideology; and some aspects of rural housing conflicts are similar to those in urban settings. These findings support the need for further research to better understand the conditions under which rural and urban housing issues differ.     

Absent presence: the ongoing impact of men's violence on the mother–child relationship

This paper draws from interviews with 45 mothers and 52 children who participated in an action research project to develop activities to support women and children in the aftermath of domestic violence. A thematic analysis was used to analyse the data and explore the question: In what ways does the perpetrator of abuse remain present in the lives of women and children following separation? The paper invites workers to recognize the distortions created by domestic violence that may need to be identified and addressed in the aftermath of violence. The ways in which past trauma, erosion of self‐esteem and the undermining of the mother–child relationship continues to create a shadow across the present relationship are identified. The continued presence of the perpetrator of abuse through child contact arrangements and ongoing harassment is also highlighted. The ‘absent presence’ of the abusive partner is posited as a concept to assist workers with a framework through which to understand problems in the mother–child relationship which emerge when living with and separating from a violent partner. The paper has implications for social workers orientating practice to focus on perpetrator accountability and support strengthening the mother–child relationship.     

Research Review: Engaging men: a multi‐level model to support father engagement

While there is a growing body of work on using fatherhood as an opportunity to engage men in strategies to prevent child maltreatment and further acts of domestic violence, there is limited research on engaging fathers in strategies to prevent domestic violence from occurring. To fill this gap in the literature, this paper explores existing father engagement frameworks used in child and family services and supports a multi‐level model of father engagement for domestic violence primary prevention. Drawing together evidence about father engagement from a range of studies, including the more general parenting literature, we describe factors that influence father engagement based on an analysis of the literature. These factors include accessibility, staff attitudes and behaviours, programme marketing and the format of service provision.     

More present than absent: Men who use domestic violence and their fathering

An earlier article referred to the “absent presence” of the perpetrator in the lives of children and their mothers who have lived with domestic violence. It identified the ways in which the shadow of the perpetrator continued and was evidenced in the “symptoms of abuse” that both women and children experienced in spite of his absence. The current article argues that fathers who use violence are actually more present than absent in the lives of children (and women), even following separation. A mixed method approach surveyed men in Men's Behaviour Change Programs (N = 101), and interviewed women who had experienced violence (N = 50). The studies reported that the majority of men in both the quantitative men's study (80%) and the qualitative women's study (77%) had substantial contact with children. The women's interviews highlight the problematic fathering that many of their children experienced, both before and after separation. They reported very high levels of child abuse and poor attitudes to both women and children. The article concludes that the family violence and child welfare systems are poorly configured to address fathers who use violence and continue to hold substantial parenting roles, including following separation.     

Creating stabilizers and safety nets for successor executives' high‐wire act

This article explores executive succession planning in a nonprofit health care organization with a strong values‐based culture. Case study research was used to explore how retiring executives have prepared the organization for their departure and have used various strategies in an attempt to limit any potentially negative impact.     

Best subset selection of autoregressive models with exogenous variables and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity errors

Summary.  We develop an efficient way to select the best subset autoregressive model with exogenous variables and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity errors. One main feature of our method is to select important autoregressive and exogenous variables, and at the same time to estimate the unknown parameters. The method proposed uses the stochastic search idea. By adopting Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, we can identify the best subset model from a large of number of possible choices. A simulation experiment shows that the method is very effective. Misspecification in the mean equation can also be detected by our model selection method. In the application to the stock-market data of seven countries, the lagged 1 US return is found to have a strong influence on the other stock-market returns.     

Reactions to research participation in vulnerable subgroups

This paper describes the extent to which vulnerable individuals (defined by economic, social, psychological, physical health, and child maltreatment status) react to research participation. As part of an ongoing longitudinal study, participants (N=896) completed a lengthy and intrusive in-person interview and provided a small amount of blood through finger pricks. At the end of the interview, participants were asked eight questions about their reactions to the research experience. Vulnerable individuals in general agreed more strongly about having an emotional reaction, but were not less willing to continue to participate. In addition, psychologically vulnerable individuals more strongly agreed they would continue to participate, were treated with respect and dignity, and found their participation meaningful. Compared to whites, nonwhites reported stronger agreement about the meaningfulness of the research and the belief that their responses would be kept private. Like others, individuals vulnerable by virtue of their prisoner status or homelessness (past or current) agreed more strongly about having an emotional reaction to the interview, but otherwise did not differ in their reactions. These results suggest that researchers and institutional review boards should not be deterred from conducting research on sensitive topics with potentially vulnerable populations.     

Value similarity about human resources,competitiveness and social responsibility: A study of organizational and suborganizational differences

This study explored the perception of value similarity between employees and top management. Three types of organizational values were identified including values concerning the use of human resources, the competitiveness of the firm, and the importance of social responsibility. Two organizations and two subpopulations within one organization were examined to determine if differences exist in the way different groups configure their values. The results revealed that the importance of value similarity on the use of human resources was univocal or common to both organizations and subpopulations. In contrast, similarity on competitiveness values and social responsibility values were found to vary and thus operate uniquely for different organizations and subgroups. The implications of these findings for the universality versus uniqueness debate within the culture literature and the future measurement of organizational value constructs are discussed.