On double hysteretic heteroskedastic model

ABSTRACT

This paper proposes a hysteretic autoregressive model with GARCH specification and a skew Student's t-error distribution for financial time series. With an integrated hysteresis zone, this model allows both the conditional mean and conditional volatility switching in a regime to be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. We perform Bayesian estimation via an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme. The proposed Bayesian method allows simultaneous inferences for all unknown parameters, including threshold values and a delay parameter. To implement model selection, we propose a numerical approximation of the marginal likelihoods to posterior odds. The proposed methodology is illustrated using simulation studies and two major Asia stock basis series. We conduct a model comparison for variant hysteresis and threshold GARCH models based on the posterior odds ratios, finding strong evidence of the hysteretic effect and some asymmetric heavy-tailness. Versus multi-regime threshold GARCH models, this new collection of models is more suitable to describe real data sets. Finally, we employ Bayesian forecasting methods in a Value-at-Risk study of the return series.     

‘My life's been a total disaster but I feel privileged’: care‐leavers’ access to personal records and their implications for social work practice

In Australia, there is no binding protocol that proscribes the processes by which the release of personal records of adults who grew up in care occurs. Individual agencies that hold the records – both government and non‐government organizations – have their own policy and practice guidelines. While not specific to care‐leavers, the existence of freedom of information and privacy legislation means that the subject of the records is entitled to access information about themselves, but this is not unproblematic. Drawing on qualitative in‐depth interviews with a group of Australian care‐leavers, this paper discusses their experiences of accessing personal records. Accessing these records was often highly significant to identity formation, but could produce both positive and negative effects. The negative aspects of the records were that, typically, at least in part, they were incomplete, insulting, incorrect and/or incomprehensible. Currently, the range of support provided to those accessing their records varies significantly across agencies. The findings of this research suggest the need for the greater provision of supported release and the implications for social work practice are discussed.     

Fathers who use domestic violence: Organisational capacity building and practice development

It is well established in the literature that fathers who use violence harm women and children. Statutory child protection workers and other human service professionals now face strong injunctions to work with these men. However, insufficient attention has been given to considering the processes for intervening with fathers who use violence and the organisational context to support workers in refocusing their practice. Workers lack clear guidance, and organisations lack specific understandings of how to support workers in this complex area of practice. Australian research used co‐design with professionals in Communities of Practice supported by the Safe & Together Institute to explore the organisational context required to work with fathers who use violence. This paper presents findings of qualitative data gathered from surveys, focus groups, and ethnographic notes of 30 Community of Practice sessions. Working together, practitioners and researchers identified four essential elements to support organisational development and improve practice: leadership by senior managers; recognition that domestic violence work needs to strengthen collaborative working; extensive training, supervising, and coaching; and enhanced worker safety. Worker perspectives are critical in developing practice principles and identifying organisational mechanisms that support practitioners to work safely and effectively with fathers who use violence.     

Bringing men in from the margins: Father‐inclusive practices for the delivery of parenting interventions

Although there is a growing body of international work on barriers to engaging fathers in child and family services, there is limited research on factors that promote father engagement. In this article, we draw on case study data from the Australian Baby Makes 3 (BM3) programme to explore factors that promote father engagement in parenting support programmes. Our analysis shows single‐gender group work supported father engagement. BM3's father group work provided a safe space in the parenting support context where men could form intimate connections with other fathers and talk openly about their parenting experiences without fear of criticism from partners. These findings suggest that men often feel silenced and marginalized in the parenting sphere.     

Sexual perceptions and practices of young people in Northern Thailand

This study draws together survey and qualitative data on sexual practices among more than 1,750 young Northern Thai people aged 17-20 years. The survey data indicate that sexually active young people frequently engage in, or are subjected to, risk-taking behaviours that may expose them to sexually transmitted infections and unwanted pregnancies. These include having multiple sexual partners and quite frequent partner turnover. High percentages also engage in unprotected sexual intercourse with various types of sexual partner (steady, casual and paid), and young women especially had often experienced sexual coercion. Qualitative data revealed a mixture of perceptions and practices affecting sexual intercourse among the young, such as having unplanned sex, engaging in sexual relations to display love or cement committed relationships, and having serial relationships, both monogamous and non-monogamous. We conclude that condom use should be a central focus of activities aimed at preventing adverse sexual health outcomes, but that new intervention approaches to encourage use of other contraceptives are also needed. Changes in sexual norms among young people also need to be acknowledged and accepted by older Thai generations in order for programs and interventions to combat negative sexual and reproductive health consequences to be more effective.     

Improving the Archiving of Records in the Out-of-home Care Sector

Abstract

Senate Inquiries into the lives of people who grew up in care, highly critical Ombudsman reports, and advocacy groups for recent and past “care leavers” draw attention to the significance of the records for children growing up in out-of-home care. This article reports on a project in which an interdisciplinary team of social workers, archivists, and historians worked together with 12 community-sector (nongovernment) organisations to look at the question of how to improve the management of the records for people with experience of out-of-home care. A Self Assessment Tool was developed and deployed at two points in time to provide feedback to organisations about the quality of their record-keeping practices. Clear improvements could be documented over a 2-year period in all 12 of the organisations involved.     

Parting words: Trauma,silence and survival

Abstract

This article examines an enigma at the heart of Freud's work on trauma: the surprising emergence, from within the theory of the death drive, of the drive to life, a form of survival that both witnesses and turns away from the trauma in which it originates. I analyse in particular the striking juxtaposition, in Freud's founding work Beyond the Pleasure Principle, of his two primary examples of trauma: the repetitive nightmares of battle suffered by the soldiers of World War I, and the game of the child, faced with the loss of its mother, who plays fort and da (there and here) with his spool. My own understanding of Freud's insight did not emerge, however, simply through a reading of his text but began, in fact, in my encounter with a real child in Atlanta, a child whose best friend was murdered in the street and who is interviewed by the friend's mother. I thus read together the language of the nightmare and the language of the child in Freud's text, and then attempt to understand how Freud's text and the language of the real child shed light upon each other.