FORECAST EVALUATION OF LIVINGSTON DATA ON INFLATION RATES AND INFLATION UNCERTAINTY*

Livingston data on expected inflation rates have been used extensively in the financial literature, especially in investgating the relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation rates; however, the data have not been subjected to a thorough analysis of forecast accuracy. The objective of this paper is to analyze the forecast properties of Livingston data using a wide variety of time and frequency domain methods over an extended sample period and for selected subperiods.     

CATEGORY WIDTH COGNITIVE STYLE AS A FACTOR IN ACCOUNTANTS' PERCEPTIONS OF ACCOUNTING INFORMATION

This paper reports the findings of a laboratory experiment designed to investigate the relationship of category width (CW) cognitive style with accountants' perceptions of accounting information. Subjects drawn from large accounting firms in Sydney, Brisbane, and Melbourne, Australia, were classified into broad, medium, and narrow categories following the test devised by Pettigrew [19]. Subjects were requested to state their level of confidence in decisions they had made after receiving (1) conventional accounting information or (2) conventional accounting information and human resources accounting (HRA) information using a one-group pretest-posttest design. The results indicated a significant relationship between CW cognitive style and the accountants' confidence in their decisions. Furthermore, CW cognitive style moderated the accounting-information/decision-making relationship.     

全球自觉资本主义:从自觉的角度透视经济管理和经济责任

今天,日益增长的全球资本主义经济是一张复杂的动态的网络,这个网络由社会、文化以及反映我们个人和大众的意识的经济体制构成。随着意识创造并联结了所有事物这一观点被人们日渐认可,以及全球责任感的增强,资本主义经济体制可以切实地被改变,从而促进经济的长期繁荣。     

Meeting at the Thin Places: Synchronicities in Clinical Practice

Unusual events, beyond mere coincidences, may occur during the course of psychotherapy. Yet, clinical training often does not prepare therapists how to understand and potentially engage with these encounters. The aim of this report is to explore the emergence of synchronistic events in therapy, while providing two clinical case composites to illustrate the author’s central points. Drawing on the Celtic concept of “thin places,” a new understanding of synchronicities and the therapeutic relationship is offered.     

First Principles of Practice Research

Correspondence to Bruce A. Thyer, Ph.D., School of Social Work, The University of Georgia, Athens, G A 30602, USA. Summary Critics of applying conventional quantitative research methodsto the problems of social work practice research have ignoredthe considerable progress which has been achieved during thepast decade in scientifically documenting the effectivenessof social services. A set of First Principles of Practice Researchis outlined for use by researchers in the design and conductof practice research, and for use by the consumers of researchto evaluate the methodological rigour of practice experiments.The advocates of qualitative research are urged to provide theprofession with similar positive examples of research on theoutcomes of social work practice, and to develop explicit guide-linesfor the conduct of qualitative studies.     

The relationship between ethnicity and fertility in New Zealand

While there is a global shift towards smaller families, some groups maintain relatively high fertility rates. The 2013 New Zealand census data were used to investigate the nature of fertility between ethnicities in New Zealand. The NZ Deprivation Index 2013 was used as a measure of socioeconomic status to determine the relationships with fertility. The results mirror research outside of New Zealand in that socioeconomic status is inversely correlated to fertility. Using crude average fertility rates, sole-ethnicity Pasifika and Māori ethnic groups still have substantially higher fertility than sole-ethnicity Europeans and Asians ethnic groups, even when simultaneously accounting for age, socioeconomic status, education, and religious affiliation. Christians have more children than individuals reportedly without any religion, and fertility rates drop on average for mothers who have higher formal qualifications. Our findings suggest that cultural, or other ethnic-specific factors differentially affect fertility for Māori, Pasifika, New Zealand European, and Asians as aggregated ethnic categories, respectively.     

Modeling the Niger Delta Insurgency

Nigeria's oil guarantees its role in the global economy; however, the state's overwhelming weaknesses perpetuate a high level of volatility vis-à-vis the potential for an immediate disruption of the national, regional, and global environment. This study presents a current qualitative analysis of Nigeria to produce a model that characterizes current conditions in the state and the state response to the nefarious acts in the delta region. This model will serve as a baseline for a significant iteration of the model that reflects the delta region counter-insurgency at various levels of strength: a what-if scenario of the region with an increase of state security over southern separatists, insurgents seeking to gain control of the oil assets. The conjectured model serves to inform/educate decision and policy makers in developing proactive, effective strategies to counter existent and potential threats in the Niger Delta.     

Determinants of presidential position taking in Congress, 1949–1995

In this paper we seek to explain the activity presidential position taking on roll call votes in the House. Position taking may help presidents pursue their policy agendas, but time and available resources constrain their ability to take positions. Even though position taking is a discretionary presidential action, it occurs in the legislative arena and, thus, presidents must consider elements in both institutions as well as outside conditions when making this decision. Accordingly, we posit a multiple perspectives approach to explain the number of presidential positions on votes in the House. Our multivariate two-stage least squares regression reveals that variables from all three environments (executive, legislative and exogenous) within our multiple perspectives approach are necessary to adequately explain presidential position taking overall and when divided according to domestic and foreign policy positions.