Biologically Motivated Cancer Risk Models

A two-stage dose response model is proposed for use in cancer risk assessment. The model assumes that transformation probabilities and cellular dynamics are exposure- and time-dependent.     

Information technology in banking

This paper argues that since the use of information is a fundamental part of all forms of activities, both corporate and private, throughout society the introduction of a new technology for using information inevitably has widespread effects. These effects are particularly far reaching in those service industries, such as banking, the very heart and essence of whose business is the handling of information.A review of the developments so far in the use of the new information technology in payment systems brings out the essential nature of its effects and shows the all-pervasive influence of the form and capability of the technology itself. It tries to illustrate where the benefits are derived and the nature of illusory gains and undesirable effects. An attempt is then made to derive an historical perspective.To try to anticipate future events, current trends in the technology and in the ways in which its use might change, are identified. The change in the technical means by which financial and other information-based services are delivered is seen to be salient feature of these developments and the important influence upon institutional relationships is discussed under the heading of the politics of the technology. Parallels in the introduction of other new technologies are drawn by way of illustration.The final part of the paper tries to develop a broader perspective and sketches out a longer scenario of the development of information technology indicating the major influence which this is likely to exert upon the development of society throughout the world.     

Assessing Engineering Resilience for Systems with Multiple Performance Measures

Recently, efforts to model and assess a system's resilience to disruptions due to environmental and adversarial threats have increased substantially. Researchers have investigated resilience in many disciplines, including sociology, psychology, computer networks, and engineering systems, to name a few. When assessing engineering system resilience, the resilience assessment typically considers a single performance measure, a disruption, a loss of performance, the time required to recover, or a combination of these elements. We define and use a resilient engineered system definition that separates system resilience into platform and mission resilience. Most complex systems have multiple performance measures; this research proposes using multiple objective decision analysis to assess system resilience for systems with multiple performance measures using two distinct methods. The first method quantifies platform resilience and includes resilience and other “ilities” directly in the value hierarchy, while the second method quantifies mission resilience and uses the “ilities” in the calculation of the expected mission performance for every performance measure in the value hierarchy. We illustrate the mission resilience method using a transportation systems‐of‐systems network with varying levels of resilience due to the level of connectivity and autonomy of the vehicles and platform resilience by using a notional military example. Our analysis found that it is necessary to quantify performance in context with specific mission(s) and scenario(s) under specific threat(s) and then use modeling and simulation to help determine the resilience of a system for a given set of conditions. The example demonstrates how incorporating system mission resilience can improve performance for some performance measures while negatively affecting others.     

Synergy from configuration of global production networks: drivers,mechanisms, and outcomes

Abstract

This paper explores the network synergies available from the configuration of highly dispersed, global production networks (GPNs). Synergy theory from the literature on intra-firm and inter-firm GPNs is examined in terms of drivers, mechanisms and outcomes. An explanatory model is developed and enriched via a series of extended case studies of firms undertaking re-configuration of their GPNs during the period 2003–2014. The primary finding is that firms create synergy in their GPNs by selecting specific configuration mechanisms, in response to a certain set of external drivers, in order to achieve certain synergistic outcomes. The paper classifies the main types of drivers, mechanisms and outcomes in terms of key variables and discusses their inter-connections and relationships.     

Psychopathology in pathological gamblers seeking treatment

High rates of psychiatric symptoms have been reported in pathological gamblers. This study of psychiatric comorbidity in pathological gamblers is the first to use structured psychiatric interviews assessing DSM-III-R Axis I and II disorders. The Structured Clinical Interview for DSM III-R (SCID-P, SCID-II) was administered to 40 (25 male, 15 male) pathological gamblers seeking outpatient treatment in Minnesota for gambling, and 64 (41 male, 23 female) controls. High lifetime rates of Axis I (92%) but not Axis II (25%) psychopathology were found in pathological gamblers as compared to controls. No differences between male and female gamblers were found in rates of affective, substance use or personality disorders. Females had higher rates of anxiety disorders and histories of physical/sexual abuse. Possible associations between psychiatric disorders and pathological gambling are discussed along with gambler typologies and implications for future research.The authors wish to gratefully acknowledge the assistance of: Gary Christenson, M.D., Carol Peterson, Ph.D., William Meller, M.D., Thomas Mackenzie, M.D.     

Wirth,Whiskey, and WASP's: Some Consequences of Community Size for Alcohol Use*†

Several themes in Wirth's “Urbanism as a Way of Life” generate the prediction that alcohol use (versus nonuse) will be more widespread among residents of urban areas. Multiple regression analysis of data from two recent national polls (1966, 1968) reveals support for this prediction. With eight other key sociological variables simultaneously controlled, the greater the urbanism of a community (measured in terms of community size), the greater the proportion of alcohol users it contains. To make certain that this association is due to urban conditions (as opposed to merely the absence of rural forces which encourage abstinence), the effects of rural forces are reduced by omitting the most rural categories of the community size measure of urbanism, and the data are reexamined. The association still persists, basically because of the larger proportion of middle to upper status, white, and Protestant alcohol users in the more urban areas.