Econometric reviews

New approaches to Modeling, Specification Selection and Econometric Inference, edited by W. A. Barnett and A. R. Gallant.     

Concepts and Precepts In Social Work Education

While a single elective course in human sexuality is a useful supplement to core social work courses in preparing students for the sex-related problems they will encounter, a more comprehensive sequence of learning experiences is necessary for those who wish to develop greater competence in this area.

This article describes such a sequence offered by the University of Hawaii School of Social Work which focuses on treating and preventing sex-related problems experienced by various populations, particularly the sexually oppressed These learning experiences include class and field activities, research projects, and guided experiences as sex educators at local agencies, as producers of a weekly radio program, and as leaders of small discussion groups for a basic sex education course.     

Deterrence, expected cost, uncertainty and voting: Experimental evidence

We conduct laboratory experiments to investigate the effects of deterrence mechanisms under controlled conditions. The effect of the expected cost of punishment of an individual’s decision to engage in a proscribed activity and the effect of uncertainty on an individual’s decision to commit a violation are very difficult to isolate in field data. We use a roadway speeding framing and find that (a) individuals respond considerably to increases in the expected cost of speeding, (b) uncertainty about the enforcement regime yields a significant reduction in violations committed, and (c) people are much more likely to speed when the punishment regime for which they voted is implemented. Our results have important implications for a behavioral theory of deterrence under uncertainty.     

Estimation of Error and Bias in Bayesian Monte Carlo Decision Analysis Using the Bootstrap

Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) decision analysis adopts a sampling procedure to estimate likelihoods and distributions of outcomes, and then uses that information to calculate the expected performance of alternative strategies, the value of information, and the value of including uncertainty. These decision analysis outputs are therefore subject to sample error. The standard error of each estimate and its bias, if any, can be estimated by the bootstrap procedure. The bootstrap operates by resampling (with replacement) from the original BMC sample, and redoing the decision analysis. Repeating this procedure yields a distribution of decision analysis outputs. The bootstrap approach to estimating the effect of sample error upon BMC analysis is illustrated with a simple value-of-information calculation along with an analysis of a proposed control structure for Lake Erie. The examples show that the outputs of BMC decision analysis can have high levels of sample error and bias.     

Strike Lengths: Correcting for Prestrike Announcements and the Ratio of Bargaining Size to Firm Size

Anticipating the duration of a labor strike can be vital for both sides of the dispute, as well as outside observers. The methods of a pair of studies using Canadian data are surveyed to analyze labor strikes in the United States from 1992 to 2008. Corrections are made for strikes with predetermined lengths (“one-day” strikes and the like), whose durations are more a function of the prior announcements than of other factors, such as number of employees striking and macroeconomic conditions. Strikes are found to be generally shorter when the striking unit represents a larger portion of the firm’s total workers, a proxy for its bargaining power. This ratio provides a better understanding of the strike dynamics (including expected length) than do sheer bargaining unit size or sheer firm size.     

Altruism and Market-Like Behavior: An Analysis of Willingness to Pay for Recycled Paper Products

The contrast between self-interested behavior guided by rational choice and altruistic behavior guided by normative considerations is a central theme in the social sciences. This study suggests that market and market-like behavior, the context where self-interest is expected to dominate, is in fact often motivated by altruism. This argument is tested by examining a willingness to pay measure, a surrogate for the market that is finding substantial use in analyses of public policy. In particular, the ability of the Schwartz model of altruism to explain willingness to pay for recycled products is examined. Findings indicate that even as the Schwartz model has explained many purely altruistic behaviors, it also can explain self-reported willingness to pay. While economists often have noted the importance of rational choice in even the most intimate of human decisions, this study notes the importance of normative altruism in even the most calculated.     

Efficiency in religious organizations

Churches must realize that the management of their human resources is critical. The U.S. Catholic Church in recent years has been this problem take on even more significance with the apparent shortage of priests. This article considers this problem in light of a relatively new methodology, data envelopment analysis, which compares organizations to comparable best-practice units. The authors conclude that the Church would benefit from a better distribution of priests, both within and across dioceses. They also conclude that the use of deacons and priestless parishes can be effective in some circumstances.