Statistical Modeling of Fire Occurrence Using Data from the Tōhoku,Japan Earthquake and Tsunami

In this article, we develop statistical models to predict the number and geographic distribution of fires caused by earthquake ground motion and tsunami inundation in Japan. Using new, uniquely large, and consistent data sets from the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, we fitted three types of models—generalized linear models (GLMs), generalized additive models (GAMs), and boosted regression trees (BRTs). This is the first time the latter two have been used in this application. A simple conceptual framework guided identification of candidate covariates. Models were then compared based on their out‐of‐sample predictive power, goodness of fit to the data, ease of implementation, and relative importance of the framework concepts. For the ground motion data set, we recommend a Poisson GAM; for the tsunami data set, a negative binomial (NB) GLM or NB GAM. The best models generate out‐of‐sample predictions of the total number of ignitions in the region within one or two. Prefecture‐level prediction errors average approximately three. All models demonstrate predictive power far superior to four from the literature that were also tested. A nonlinear relationship is apparent between ignitions and ground motion, so for GLMs, which assume a linear response‐covariate relationship, instrumental intensity was the preferred ground motion covariate because it captures part of that nonlinearity. Measures of commercial exposure were preferred over measures of residential exposure for both ground motion and tsunami ignition models. This may vary in other regions, but nevertheless highlights the value of testing alternative measures for each concept. Models with the best predictive power included two or three covariates.     

The Effects of Early Institutionalization and Foster Care Intervention on Children's Social Behaviors at the Age of Eight

The present study compared the social behaviors of eight‐year‐old previously institutionalized Romanian children from the Bucharest Early Intervention Project (BEIP) in two groups: (1) children randomized to foster care homes (FCG), and (2) children randomized to care as usual (remaining in institutions) (CAUG). Children were observed interacting with an age‐ and gender‐matched unfamiliar, non‐institutionalized peer from the community during six interactive tasks, and their behavior was coded for speech reticence, social engagement, task orientation, social withdrawal, and conversational competence. Group comparisons revealed that FCG children were rated as significantly less reticent during a speech task than CAUG children. For CAUG children, longer time spent in institutional care was related to greater speech reticence and lower social engagement. Using an actor–partner interdependence model, CAUG children's behaviors, but not FCG, were found to influence the behavior of unfamiliar peers. These findings are the first to characterize institutionalized children's observed social behaviors toward new peers during middle childhood and highlight the positive effects of foster care intervention in the social domain.     

Incentives Policies to Site Hazardous Waste Facilities

This paper addresses the use of mitigation and compensation as incentives policies to stimulate agreement between parties interested in siting a hazardous waste facility and potential host communities. We develop a model of facility siting that distinguishes five key factors which influence the acceptability of a proposed facility when considered in relation to status quo conditions. This model then is used to examine the effectiveness of different incentives policies with regard to (a) mitigating the perceived risks and (b) compensating the adverse impacts of a hazardous waste facility.     

Female Labor Force Participation and the Organizational Experiences of Male Workers*

Using a sample of 387 male federal employees who responded to a questionnaire, this study tests two theoretical perspectives concerning the effect of women's labor force participation on men's work experiences. One theory, with roots in the external-conflict/intenial-cohesion and minority-group size/discrimination literature, predicts that the greater the representation of women in work groups, the greater the social solidarity among male workers and the less the social support for males from female coworkers. A second theory, derived primarily from Blau's exploration into the quantitative properties of social structure, suggests that the higher the proportional representation of females, the lower of social solidarity among male workers and the greater the social support for males from female coworkers. The findings support the latter, not the former, theoretical perspective.