Risk and its Management in Post-Financial Crisis Hong Kong

In the 1970s and up until the financial crisis occurred in the late 1990s, Hong Kong prospered in a relatively stable social, economic and political context. Since the financial crisis, however, its population has been increasingly exposed to risk: there has been job uncertainty and decreasing capacity for self‐reliance, leading to a growing reliance on public welfare and on families at a time when both are under pressure. The old welfare policies, unable to cope with the new risks, have been replaced by neo‐liberal reforms, redistributing the roles and responsibilities of the individual and the state, with a greater burden falling on the former. Individuals are required to be prudent to manage risk. While these reforms have relieved some of the burden on the state, both new social risk groups and ‘net taxpayers’ considered themselves to have borne disproportional costs. Society is facing serious problems resulting from ineffective old welfare policies, new social risks due to new policies, and the political upheavals arising from increased social conflicts and weakened social cohesion and solidarity. A further complication is that there is no acceptable platform or agent to negotiate a compromise between the polarized groups. This article argues that reliance on publicly funded risk coping strategies or on neo‐liberal risk prevention and mitigation strategies is not a desirable and sustainable policy. A commonly accepted political platform is required to negotiate a compromise which emphasizes shared and balanced roles and responsibilities, and a well‐conceived combination of risk prevention, mitigation and coping strategies.     

Protecting the ageing poor or strengthening the market economy: the case of the Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Fund

The Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) launched by the Hong Kong government seems to be a residual welfare state's strategy to cope with an ageing population and, at the same time, preserve a minimal welfare state and further enhance economic development. The MPF can only provide limited protection for a limited number of employees; many older people still have to depend on financial support from their families or have to work. On the other hand, the MPF immediately boosts the economy by creating more jobs for the financial services sector and by providing more business opportunities for banks and insurance companies. Thus, the MPF has consolidated the foundation of Hong Kong's capitalism by socialising and incorporating the whole working population in the market economy but has provided little protection for their old age.     

Improved cross-entropy method for estimation

The cross-entropy (CE) method is an adaptive importance sampling procedure that has been successfully applied to a diverse range of complicated simulation problems. However, recent research has shown that in some high-dimensional settings, the likelihood ratio degeneracy problem becomes severe and the importance sampling estimator obtained from the CE algorithm becomes unreliable. We consider a variation of the CE method whose performance does not deteriorate as the dimension of the problem increases. We then illustrate the algorithm via a high-dimensional estimation problem in risk management.     

A note on the non-negativity of continuous-time ARMA and GARCH processes

A general approach for modeling the volatility process in continuous-time is based on the convolution of a kernel with a non-decreasing Lévy process, which is non-negative if the kernel is non-negative. Within the framework of Continuous-time Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (CARMA) processes, we derive a necessary condition for the kernel to be non-negative, and propose a numerical method for checking the non-negativity of a kernel function. These results can be lifted to solving a similar problem with another approach to modeling volatility via the COntinuous-time Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (COGARCH) processes.     

Caseworkers as a source of hope leading to perceptions of academic success for transitional age foster youth

Research among adolescent samples has consistently demonstrated that a hopeful mindset is associated with resilience and global well-being. Further, research suggests that hope is influenced from an early age from connections with supportive caregivers. However, because older youth in the child welfare system may lack supportive caregivers, alternative sources of hope may be needed. To test a theory that supportive child welfare caseworkers can serve as external sources of hope, we conducted a cross-sectional study of youth in the child welfare system from a single state (N = 149). Using surveys with established scales to measure the variables of interest, the study tested a structural equation model of (1) youth's external hope in their caseworker as a driver of (2) internal hope in themselves leading to (3) more positive perceptions of academic success. Perceptions of academic success were chosen as the final consequence of the model because academic success has been linked to many other variables of well-being across the lifespan. The results indicate that the proposed structural model fits the data well (χ² = 327.9, df = 150; P < 0.001; root-mean-square error of approximation [RMSEA] = 0.09 [90% confidence interval – CI: 0.076, 0.103]; comparative fit index [CFI]: 0.920; standardized root-mean-square residual [SRMR]: 0.05). The results indicate that youths' hope in themselves had origins in external hope in the caseworker. Moreover, the final consequence was an increase in perceptions of academic success. Such results have implications by revealing how case management services can positively influence foster youths' hope and thereby influence their academic success.     

Generational conflict and provisions for the elderly in Hong Kong: The relevance of position‐based interest and values

Respect for the elderly and hence the associated rights support a generational contract. Nevertheless, the case of the recent debate on the universal retirement scheme in Hong Kong has raised concerns about its strength. We identify relevant items from the sixth wave of the World Values Survey to explore the orientations of different generations toward others. The analysis shows differences between younger and older generations. Regression analyses show that values are not significant in explaining the differences, but various positions, including sex, marital status, and education, and perceptions of the elderly are relevant. Such differences across generations might weaken the generational contract and potentially engender conflicts as shown in the recent debate about the retirement scheme. We suggest short‐ and long‐term interest calculations, informed by their positions, play a more significant role in policy discussions and decisions, rather than simply appealing to values.     

Gender‐Sensitive Research in a Chinese Community

The aim of this article is to foster an awareness of the need for gender‐sensitive research in the context of the methodological and ethical challenges posed by such research. We trace the development of gender sensitivity and masculinity in social work practice and research and connect this to an overview of the issues posed by research on sensitive topics. Reflecting on a research project involving Chinese male sexual abuse survivors, we draw conclusions illustrating and proposing a range of methodological practices and ethical safeguards. We underscore the importance of gender‐sensitivity in performing research on sensitive topics with men in a Chinese community.     

Social networks and the organisation of big business groups in post New Economic Policy (NEP) era in the 1990s in Malaysia

Personal ties are generally regarded as important to big business growth in Malaysia, particularly after the New Economic Policy (NEP) in the 1990s. Common types are informal ones established between multi-ethnic big business people and Malay key state and political leaders. Other types of ties, company directorship links and informal ties, are seldom studied especially those between the business people and former state bureaucrats and corporate professionals. Thus, by conceptualising the directorship links and informal personal ties as social networks, the author conducted a sociological analysis of some intra- and inter-ethnic directorship links and ties established by four prominent big businessmen after the NEP in the 1990s. This article reports the main finding on the links and ties becoming a common organisational mechanism of business groups owned and controlled by the businessmen, besides providing access to the state. Therefore, another understanding of inter- and intra-ethnic personal ties in big business growth, especially after the NEP is achieved.