Sur l'estimation du risque encouru en reconstruisant une forme aléatoire

The problem of estimating the risk corresponding to the reconstruction of a random pattern is reviewed. It is shown that for a particular but important model, the problem is reduced to the estimation of two parameters closely related to those appearing in a two-state Markov chain, which is of independent interest. The estimation of the Markov chain's parameters is studied from the decision-theoretic point of view. Estimators which are better than others previously considered are obtained and adapted to the estimation of the corresponding risk. Examples are are analyzed; even if a very empirical method is used to give values to the parameters of an a priorilaw, some good estimators of the risk are obtained.     

The Role of Positive Alcohol Expectancies in Underage Binge Drinking Among College Students

Abstract

Objective: This study explored associations between positive alcohol expectancies, and demographics, as well as academic status and binge drinking among underage college students. Participants: A sample of 1,553 underage college students at 3 public universities and 1 college in the Southeast who completed the Core Alcohol and Drug Survey in the Spring 2013 semester. Methods: A series of bivariate analyses and logistic regression models were used to examine associations between demographic and academic status variables as well as positive alcohol expectancies with self-reported binge drinking. Positive alcohol expectancies were examined in multivariable models via 2 factors derived from principal component analyses. Results: Students who endorsed higher agreement of these 2 emergent factors (sociability, sexuality) were more likely to report an occurrence of binge drinking in the past 2 weeks. Conclusions: Study results document associations between positive alcohol expectancies and binge drinking among underage students; implications for prevention and treatment are discussed.     

Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk in Collegiate Football Players and Nonathletes

Abstract

Collegiate American football players may be at risk for cardiovascular disease. Objective: To compare cardiovascular disease risk factors and cardiovascular structure and function parameters of football players, stratified by position, to a group of sedentary, nonathletes. Participants: Twenty-six collegiate football players and 13 nonathletes participated in this study. Methods: Blood pressures, anthropometrics, and blood chemistries were obtained and analyzed using standardized procedures. Resting echocardiography was used to evaluate cardiac morphology and function. Brachial artery flow-mediated dilation was assessed using high-resolution ultrasonography. Results: The prevalence of the metabolic syndrome was significantly higher amongst the linemen compared to the skill-position players (46% versus 0%, p < .05). Mildly abnormal wall thickness was noted in 20% of the football players. No significant differences in vascular function were observed between the groups. Conclusions: The increased prevalence of the metabolic syndrome and its components in the collegiate linemen may increase cardiovascular disease risk.     

Home-Making: Supports and Barriers to the Process of Home

The process of home-making changes over a lifetime. For many, including newly resettled homeless people, the home-making process is difficult, challenging, and sometimes unsuccessful. This paper draws on research concerning the experiences of homeless individuals and families in New York and studies of single homeless adults in London and Dublin. It argues that there are supports and barriers to the home process, which include social, physical, environmental, financial, and practical factors. Central conclusions are that home does not arrive with a roof over a person’s head, but rather that home-making is a complex social psychological process. Developing supports to home-making may offer tangible ways to enable this process to flourish.     

Negotiating Emotional Support: Sober Gay Latinos and Their Families

This study explores how sober gay Latino men obtain support from their families. Familial ties can be a protective health factor, yet many gay Latinos experience rejection from family members because of their sexuality. There are very few studies that examine the extent and quality of emotional support from kin for this population. Understanding family dynamics within the context of recovery and sexuality can increase our understanding of how to leverage family ties to develop alcohol abuse interventions. The study was conducted via semistructured interviews with 30 sober gay Latinos using a grounded theory approach. Analyses of the qualitative data identified the following themes: family values shaped the participants’ perception of their range of choices and emotional responses; participants reported feeling loved and supported even when sexuality was not discussed with parents; and family support for sobriety is essential. Findings suggest that familial ties shape perceptions of support and importance of disclosing sexual identity. Family support often results from agreements about sexual identity disclosure, and some families can overcome cultural and religious taboos on sexuality. Future studies should investigate families that negotiate acceptance with their gay members, and whether they exhibit heterosexual biases that may influence the psychological stress of gay Latino men who wish to be sober.     

Capacity Building Contributions of Short-Term International Volunteers

Previous research suggests that international volunteer service may have both positive and negative effects on host organizations. Applying a capacity-building perspective, this study uses semistructured interviews to ask staff in hosting organizations to identify the main outcomes of short-term volunteer service. These views were compared with perspectives of staff from matched organizations that do not host international volunteers. Findings suggest that international volunteers may increase organizational capacity by supplying extra hands, providing technical and professional skills, contributing tangible resources, and enhancing intercultural understanding. Volunteers may also challenge organizations as they absorb staff time and resources. Staff members from both types of organizations identify individual and institutional variables that may affect the quality of these outcomes, including volunteers' language capacity and the intensity of the service placement.     

Youth gambling in Melbourne's west: Changes between 1996 and 1998 for Anglo‐European background and Asian background school‐based youth 26

Abstract

In this study of gambling frequency and problem gambling in school‐based young people from the western suburbs of Melbourne, 710 students from Years 10, 11 and 12 were surveyed in 1996, and 776 students from the same years and from the same schools were surveyed in 1998. The mean age of both cohorts was 16.3 years. The major aim of the study was to assess changes in youth gambling patterns over this two‐year period. A second aim was to compare gambling patterns among Asian youth in comparison with their Anglo‐European counterparts. Results indicated that gambling frequency (including use of poker machines) had significantly reduced over the two‐year period, as had problem gambling. Contrary to the stereotype, young Asian background students were less likely to gamble than Anglo‐European students, spent less money on gambling, but paradoxically, scored higher on the problem gambling scale. Possible reasons for this anomalous finding were discussed.     

Parent Marital Quality and the Parent–Adolescent Relationship: Effects on Sexual Activity among Adolescents and Youth

The link between growing up outside of an intact family and the likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behaviors as an adolescent has been explored extensively. However, fewer studies examined the likelihood of risky sexual behaviors among adolescents within intact families and what elements of those married-parent families seem to function as protective factors for adolescents. This study looks at relationships within married-parent families—that is, the parent marital relationship, the youth–parent relationship, and the interaction of the two—to identify potential sources of resilience for adolescents that influence their sexual activity. Overall, the youths' relationship with their parents matters more than the parents' relationship with each other, particularly for male youth and youth in stepparent families. Other covariates with notable influence on youths' risky sexual behaviors include parents' marital disruption and religious activity during the teen years. Analyses are based on data from the NLSY97 cohort.     

Family Processes and Adolescent Religiosity and Religious Practice: View From the NLSY97

This article focuses on family processes and adolescent religious attendance and personal religiosity. We find that the closeness and quality of the marital relationship and relationship between adolescent and parents significantly contributes to the strength of adolescent religious conviction and practice. The study used data from the NLSY97 cohort. Predictors include parenting style, closeness, and parent–child closeness; family structure; income, employment, parental education, mother's age at first birth, and number of siblings; adolescent characteristics (e.g., age, gender, race/ethnicity, disability, lying or cheating); and environmental characteristics (e.g., region of country, urbanicity, and physical environment risk). Family religious attendance was dramatically influenced by race in adolescents aged 16 years. Adolescents living with married, biological parents in 1997 were 36% more likely to attend worship services than those living with stepfamilies. Adolescents living in more physically risky environments, with peers who belonged to gangs, cut classes, or had sex, were less likely to attend weekly worship services with their families. Finally, compared with adolescents whose parents had a high-quality marital relationship and who had good relationships with both parents, all other adolescents were less likely to attend weekly worship services with their families.