Mark-resighting analysis of a California gull population

California gulls ( Larus californicus ) of known age and sex were censused on their breeding colony in 1979, 1980 and 1984 through 1993. Ages of 235 males and 196 females ranged from 4 to 27 years. Age classes used in the analysis were limited to 17, 4 through 19, and 20 or more as a final age category because data on gulls over 20 were sparse. Survival declined with age in a way that was parsimoniously modelled with a quadratic function. Other factors, sex and time, did not explain any variation in survival. Resighting depended on age, sex and time. Younger adults skipped breeding more frequently than did older adults, and females skipped breeding more frequently than did males. There was also good evidence for time dependence in resighting probability, but its inclusion in the model occurred at the expense of interpretability and precision. In a data set such as this, resighting probability may assume more importance than a mere 'nuisance parameter'. In this study, resighting history measured attendance at the breeding ground. In turn, attendance rates may be a manifestation of reproductive strategy, which can also have consequences for survival. In this situation, there may be heterogeneity in both survival and resighting probability that is unexplained by the model. While such complexity may well be a nuisance to deal with, it can also point to important biological questions.     

Tamworth, Australia's ‘country music capital’: place marketing, rurality, and resident reactions

Since the 1970s, Tamworth has become well known as Australia's ‘country music capital’. Its annual Country and Western Music Festival has become the leading event of its type in Australia, attracting over 60,000 visitors every year. The festival, and country music more generally, have become central to the town's identity and tourism marketing strategies. This article discusses the social constructions that have surrounded Tamworth's transition to ‘country music capital’—of the ‘rural’, and of ‘country’—within the context of debates about the politics of place marketing. Textual analysis of promotional material and built landscapes reveals representations of rurality (or ‘senses of the rural’). In their most commercial form, representations of rurality converge on a dominant notion of ‘country’, quite different from the ‘countryside’ and ‘rural idyll’ in England. This dominant, or normative ‘country’ forms the basis of imagery for the festival, the Town's marketing strategy, and associated advertising campaigns by major sponsors. It is predominantly masculine, white, working class and nationalist. But links between musical style and discourses of place are complex. Colonial British histories, Celtic musical traditions and North American popular culture all inform ‘country’ in Tamworth, dissipating nationalist interpretations. Normative constructions also contrast with other, heterogeneous ruralities in Australia, that include the lived experiences of rural Australians, and on stage—in country music—where multiple ‘ruralised’ identities are performed. Even those who stand to benefit from place promotion have been uncertain about country music and ‘the country’, because of associated discourses of Tamworth as ‘hick’ and ‘redneck’. In the final section of the paper, reactions of residents to constructions of Tamworth as country music capital are discussed, via the results of a simple resident survey. In contrast to previous studies of the disempowering politics of place marketing, Tamworth residents were on the whole supportive of the new associations and images for the town, despite ‘hick’ connotations, as it has become a centre for ‘country’, and for country music. Reasons for this are explored, and resistances discussed. The result is a complex and entangled politics of national identity, gender, race and class, where meanings for place are variously interpreted and negotiated.     

Bribes,power, and managerial control in corporate voting games

Proxy fights have received comparatively little attention relative to the more popular methods for corporate control transfer: merger and tender offers. This paper presents an analytic model of the proxy contest as a cooperative game with four players: management, passive shareholders, insurgent shareholders and a trust fund. The power of the players and the effectiveness of certain managerial actions is discussed.     

Patterns of Strategic Change in Health Care: District Health Authorities Respond to AIDS*

The literature on strategic change is based mostly on research in the private sector. This paper suggests that change in public sector organizations is equally worthy of study and can offer novel insights. Findings from research into the development of services for HIV/AIDS in NHS health districts are used to illustrate six generic themes in strategic change processes. The first theme concerns the role of context in potentiating change, and in promoting a diverse response in different localities despite unifying government guidelines. A second theme introduces the initiators of change, the ‘product champions’, a less homogeneous group than is sometimes suggested. Although personal status, energy and pro-activity were shared characteristics, individuals differed in style and methods used to attain goals. Theme three highlights social movements as mediators of change. Consumerism has affected both private and public sector industry, but for HIV/AIDS the process has been particularly visible. The mobilising role of crisis comes next. A three phase model is suggested, linking ‘crisis-as-threat’ and ‘crisis-as-opportunity’ theories. A fifth theme concerns changes in organizational culture provoked by HIV/AIDS, and the role played by symbolism - often unpredictable and not easily manipulated by management. The last theme is organizational learning; how learning about HIV/AIDS diffused through the districts, and how well learning generalizes to other issues. In conclusion, it is argued that the study of processes of change in a public sector organization can contribute to general models of strategic change and help to develop organizational theory.     

Explaining risky choices without assuming preferences

Economic theories of choice under uncertainty assume that agents act as if they have preferences which govern their choices between risky options. Theories differ as to the exact specification of the preference structure, but it is common to assume that preferences are complete and satisfy certain consistency requirements such as transitivity and monotonicity. In this paper, it is argued that there may be reason to doubt whether individuals act as if they have complete and consistent preferences over risky actions. Instead it is suggested that individuals should be thought of as actively constructing preferences through a process which I call rationalisation. It is then argued that rationalisation provides a basis for understanding certain experimentally observed anomalies which appear quite at odds with conventional theory.