Lost in Translation? Health Systems in the US and the UK

This paper compares health systems in the US and the UK in relation to levels and types of finance and provision. The main part of the paper focuses on comparisons between the British National Health Service (NHS) and Kaiser Permanente in California. Although major differences in financing and provision make cross‐national comparisons between the US and the UK difficult, recent work comparing service utilization between the NHS and Kaiser Permanente has highlighted opportunities for learning between the two systems. The paper describes the results of this work, and the way in which the NHS has sought to apply and adapt some of the managed care techniques used in Kaiser Permanente. It concludes by identifying the cultural and other obstacles that have to be addressed in translating practices from one system to another.     

A Spectral Estimator of Arma Parameters from Thresholded Data

We consider computationally-fast methods for estimating parameters in ARMA processes from binary time series data, obtained by thresholding the latent ARMA process. All methods involve matching estimated and expected autocorrelations of the binary series. In particular, we focus on the spectral representation of the likelihood of an ARMA process and derive a restricted form of this likelihood, which uses correlations at only the first few lags. We contrast these methods with an efficient but computationally-intensive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. In a simulation study we show that, for a range of ARMA processes, the spectral method is more efficient than variants of least squares and much faster than MCMC. We illustrate by fitting an ARMA(2,1) model to a binary time series of cow feeding data.     

Editorial

This first issue in Volume 42 once again illustrates the Journal'sbreadth of coverage and its unique capacity to address theoreticaland practice issues across the globe. It brings together a numberof articles that focus on community development dilemmas withinthe developed north and underdeveloped south. In many respects,the contexts are very different but many of the concerns areshared, including the persistent but usually frustrating attemptsto identify reliable 'models' of practice based upon sound evidence.In a recent special issue (Brocklesby, Fisher and Hintjens (Eds.),Volume 38, number 3, July 2003), CDJ examined the potentialof a sustainable livelihoods approach when community developmentprinciples and practices are applied. In continuing the dialogue,Yiheyis Maru and Keith Woodford have developed a 'resourcesand shaping forces' model,     

Social security, employment and Incapacity Benefit: critical reflections on A new deal for welfare

In January 2006 New Labour published a Green Paper on welfare reform, A new deal for welfare: empowering people to work. Following a consultation period the 2006 Welfare Reform Bill was published in July 2006. The main concern of the Green Paper was with Incapacity Benefit and the people who claim it. This paper critically engages with the proposals outlined in the Green Paper and the subsequent Bill. Focusing upon the social security and labour market interventions of the proposals, the paper argues that rather than empowering disabled people to work, the relationships held to exist between welfare reform and paid employment in A new deal for welfare are likely to have a limited impact. The paper discusses why this is likely to be the case by examining assumptions contained in the proposals related to the reasons why people claim Incapacity Benefit, the model of disability that structures the proposals and the relationships between disability, paid work and models of family structure that the proposals presuppose.     

Variance estimation for a low income proportion

Summary. Proportions below a given fraction of a quantile of an income distribution are often estimated from survey data in comparisons of poverty. We consider the estimation of the variance of such a proportion, estimated from Family Expenditure Survey data. We show how a linearization method of variance estimation may be applied to this proportion, allowing for the effects of both a complex sampling design and weighting by a raking method to population controls. We show that, for data for 1998–1999, the estimated variances are always increased when allowance is made for the design and raking weights, the principal effect arising from the design. We also study the properties of a simplified variance estimator and discuss extensions to a wider class of poverty measures.     

Demand Growth in Services: A Discrete Choice Analysis of Customer Preferences and Online Selling

The selling of perishable services (e.g., hotel rooms, airline seats, and rental cars) online is increasingly popular with both retailers and consumers. Among the innovative approaches to online sales is opaque selling. First popularized by Priceline.com's name‐your‐own‐price model, opaque selling hides some attributes of the service (notably, brand and specific location) until after the purchase decision, in exchange for a discounted price. This means that a branded “product” is being sold as somewhat of a commodity, but the brand “name” is protected by the opaque model. The attraction of this model for retailers is that they are presumably able to increase their revenue stream, albeit at a lower rate, by selling rooms that otherwise would remain in inventory. In this article, we outline the development and analysis of an online choice survey to understand consumer preferences among three types of online distribution channels: regular full information sales channels, and opaque sales channels with or without consumer bidding. A Multinomial Logit model is employed to analyze the data and measure the consumer trade‐offs between price and other attributes of the product. We use the estimated model to calculate the incremental demand and revenue created by using an opaque channel simultaneously with regular full information channels. On balance, we find that correctly priced opaque channels can add to hotels revenue streams without undue cannibalization of regular room sales.     

Variations of Sexual Scripts Relating to Concurrency by Race,Class, and Gender in South Africa

It is unclear whether higher rates of sexual partner concurrency in Black South Africans are due to socioeconomic or cultural factors. We used a nationally representative sample of 9,728 individuals aged 16 to 55 from a study conducted in 2009 to examine how the norms pertaining to concurrency and the practice of concurrency vary by race, class, and gender. The percentage of men reporting point concurrency was 14%, 6.5%, and 2.5% in Blacks, coloreds, and Whites, respectively (p < 0.001). These percentages increased to 45.7%, 24.7%, and 11.7%, respectively, for those reporting lifetime concurrency (p < 0.001). In all the racial groups, men exhibited more favorable attitudes toward concurrency than women did. For a range of indicators, White men and women had less favorable attitudes toward concurrency than Black men and women. These differences remained after controlling for a range of confounding variables. In the adjusted logistic regression model, reported concurrency in men was associated with a younger age, Black race, being in the lowest income tertile, not being in a stable relationship, and expressing various positive attitudes toward concurrency.