Reconstructing rurality and community: plantation forestry in Victoria, Australia

Changes in land use are a common response to deterioration in the economic viability of farming. While diversification into other agricultural land uses apparently takes place with little consternation or resistance, the development of plantation forestry on agricultural land is often accompanied by concern and controversy. What sets plantation forestry apart from agriculture is that it often involves new forms of ownership and control, it is accompanied by changes in population, and it transforms the production landscape. The development of plantation forestry has become increasingly commonplace in many parts of rural Australia, and it has been met with mixed reactions from rural communities. Our interest was to explore the outlook and perspectives on forestry within a rural locality—Branxholme in the State of Victoria—that is experiencing relatively rapid land-use change into planted forests. We provide a synopsis of community reactions to land-use change. The social construction of change is reported at one level in relation to well-established elements—population, service provision, and employment. Underlying our analysis, though, is an attempt to understand the social construction of change in relation to the higher-order concepts of rurality and community.     

The neglog transformation and quantile regression for the analysis of a large credit scoring database

Summary.  A statistical analysis of a bank's credit card database is presented. The database is a snapshot of accounts whose holders have missed a payment on a given month but who do not subsequently default. The variables on which there is information are observable measures on the account (such as profit and activity), and whether actions that are available to the bank (such as letters and telephone calls) have been taken. A primary objective for the bank is to gain insight into the effect that collections activity has on on-going account usage. A neglog transformation that highlights features that are hidden on the original scale and improves the joint distribution of the covariates is introduced. Quantile regression, a novel methodology to the credit scoring industry, is used as it is relatively assumption free, and it is suspected that different relationships may be manifest in different parts of the response distribution. The large size is handled by selecting relatively small subsamples for training and then building empirical distributions from repeated samples for validation. In the application to the database of clients who have missed a single payment a substantive finding is that the predictor of the median of the target variable contains different variables from those of the predictor of the 30% quantile. This suggests that different mechanisms may be at play in different parts of the distribution.     

The problem of defining nature first: A philosophical critique of environmental ethics

What is nature? Perhaps it is something of our own invention, perhaps not; but before we can begin researching the proper way to conserve it, we must come up with an accurate notion of what it is. Unless we examine the values we place on the environment and the resulting conflicts in which we trap ourselves, we will never be able to employ our definitions of nature, nor argue for our reactions toward it. Without a unified concept, perceptions of nature will create conflicting methodologies in terms of the environment—most of all, in terms of how we see it. Without a perception of the natural world, we aren't quite sure what it is we are trying to save. An accurate and focused perception of nature as a concept is the key. Until we understand the methodologies which influence our value placing systems, how we regard nature and how we develop ethics toward it will not be joined into a common consensus of practice.     

Editorial

This issue brings together a range of articles concerned indifferent ways with the relationship between policy goals, practiceand outcomes. At the heart of a number of contributors is thequestion of who benefits from community development interventionsand what relationship do such interventions have on the organizationof society as well as the impact on targeted local communities.The reflective and self-critical article by Danielle Campbell,Paul Wunungmurra and Helen Nyomba draws directly upon theirown experiences and tells a familiar albeit depressing taleof well-intentioned but badly thought out and poorly implementedpolicy. It focuses on the struggles within a community-basedhealth project in a remote Aboriginal Australian context tocome to terms with the need to transform the dominant professionalparadigm that creates social distance between practitionersand local residents. Set in the broader policy context of limitedand inconsistent government     

Using data augmentation to correct for non-ignorable non-response when surrogate data are available: an application to the distribution of hourly pay

Summary.  The paper develops a data augmentation method to estimate the distribution function of a variable, which is partially observed, under a non-ignorable missing data mechanism, and where surrogate data are available. An application to the estimation of hourly pay distributions using UK Labour Force Survey data provides the main motivation. In addition to considering a standard parametric data augmentation method, we consider the use of hot deck imputation methods as part of the data augmentation procedure to improve the robustness of the method. The method proposed is compared with standard methods that are based on an ignorable missing data mechanism, both in a simulation study and in the Labour Force Survey application. The focus is on reducing bias in point estimation, but variance estimation using multiple imputation is also considered briefly.     

Editorial

After forty successful years of publishing and supporting otherrelated activities, the Community Development Journal remainsat the forefront within the field of community development.Its coverage of material from the north and south as well aspractice and theory ensures that the Journal continues to commanda unique position among academic journals. The recent introductionof online advance access publishing and e-letters ensures theJournal reflects the best in publishing. This issue begins with an article by Glen Laverack, in whichhe introduces the concept of the ‘domains approach’to community empowerment, which is illustrated by a case studyfrom Kyrgyzstan. Extrapolating from the community developmentliterature, Laverack identifies     

Containment of Polioviruses After Eradication and OPV Cessation: Characterizing Risks to Improve Management

The goal of the World Health Organization is to stop routine use of oral poliovirus vaccine shortly after interruption of wild poliovirus transmission. A key component of this goal is to minimize the risk of reintroduction by destruction of polioviruses except in an absolute minimum number of facilities that serve essential functions and implement effective containment. Effective containment begins with a complete facility risk assessment. This article focuses on characterizing the risks of exposure to polioviruses from the essential vaccine production, quality control, and international reference and research facilities that remain. We consider the potential exposure pathways that might lead to a poliovirus reintroduction, including para-occupational exposures and releases to the environment, and review the literature to provide available estimates and a qualitative assessment of containment risks. Minimizing the risk of poliovirus transmission from a poliovirus facility to increasingly susceptible communities is a crucial and ongoing effort requiring understanding and actively managing the potential exposure pathways.     

A jackknife variance estimator for unequal probability sampling

Summary.  The jackknife method is often used for variance estimation in sample surveys but has only been developed for a limited class of sampling designs. We propose a jackknife variance estimator which is defined for any without-replacement unequal probability sampling design. We demonstrate design consistency of this estimator for a broad class of point estimators. A Monte Carlo study shows how the proposed estimator may improve on existing estimators.     

Fitting Roc Curves Using Non-linear Binomial Regression

The performance of a diagnostic test is summarized by its receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Empirical data on a test's performance often come in the form of observed true positive and false positive relative frequencies, under varying conditions. This paper describes a family of models for analysing such data. The underlying ROC curves are specified by a shift parameter, a shape parameter and a link function. Both the position along the ROC curve and the shift parameter are modelled linearly. The shape parameter enters the model non-linearly but in a very simple manner. One simple application is to the meta-analysis of independent studies of the same diagnostic test, illustrated on some data of Moses, Shapiro & Littenberg (1993). A second application to so-called vigilance data is given, where ROC curves differ across subjects, and modelling of the position along the ROC curve is of primary interest.     

On the Optimality and Limitations of Buehler Bounds

In 1957, R.J. Buehler gave a method of constructing honest upper confidence limits for a parameter that are as small as possible subject to a pre‐specified ordering restriction. In reliability theory, these ‘Buehler bounds’ play a central role in setting upper confidence limits for failure probabilities. Despite their stated strong optimality property, Buehler bounds remain virtually unknown to the wider statistical audience. This paper has two purposes. First, it points out that Buehler's construction is not well defined in general. However, a slightly modified version of the Buehler construction is minimal in a slightly weaker, but still compelling, sense. A proof is presented of the optimality of this modified Buehler construction under minimal regularity conditions. Second, the paper demonstrates that Buehler bounds can be expressed as the supremum of Buehler bounds conditional on any nuisance parameters, under very weak assumptions. This result is then used to demonstrate that Buehler bounds reduce to a trivial construction for the location‐scale model. This places important practical limits on the application of Buehler bounds and explains why they are not as well known as they deserve to be.