Two phase parametric and probabilistic NPV calculations, with possible deferral of disposal of UK nuclear waste as an example

This paper illustrates the value of several particular features of a first phase parametric approach to discounted cash flow (DCF) decision analysis when significant uncertainty is involved. It also illustrates the value of second phase probabilistic approaches to selected parameters for five quite different example reasons. The most controversial example reason concerns the discount rate. The particular example used to illustrate both phases may stimulate general interest because of the important issues involved, but it is argued that the two phase approach as a whole has a wide range of applications for decisions large and small.     

What Drives Citizen Participation in Political Gatherings in Modern South Africa? A Quantitative Analysis of Self-Reported Behaviour

Social Indicators Research - Community and public gatherings are an important component of political participation in sub-Saharan Africa. Formal and informal community meetings and rallies are...     

Exploring the Hierarchical Structure of Pacific Identity and Wellbeing

To understand outcomes for Pacific peoples in New Zealand we need to further our psychological knowledge of the relationship between Pacific identity and wellbeing. We map the hierarchical organization of Pacific identity and wellbeing using a novel top-down factor analytic approach applied to the Pacific Identity and Wellbeing Scale (PIWBS; N = 586). Analyses indicated that Pacific identity experiences were organized within two broad dimensions reflecting Identity Engagement and Cultural Wellbeing. Critically, our analysis showed that Religious Centrality and Embeddedness emerged jointly from these dual broad domains. Religious identification provides a bridging link between identity and wellbeing for Pacific peoples. Identifying the relationships of Pacific identity and wellbeing factors, and how religious identification emerges jointly from these two broad domains, provides valuable information in how the Pacific self may be cognitively organized and may assist in future research directions in this area. We assert that this general statistical model provides broad conceptual insights into how Pacific peoples experience their identity and culture, and how this relates to various social indicators of health and wellbeing at a broad, theoretical level. In particular, we offer a conceptual analysis of possible insights from our hierarchical model of identity and wellbeing for understanding Pacific suicide in New Zealand.     

Critical Realism,Dialectics, and Qualitative Research Methods

Critical realism has been an important advance in social science methodology because it develops a qualitative theory of causality which avoids some of the pitfalls of empiricist theories of causality. But while there has been ample work exploring the relationship between critical realism and qualitative research methods there has been noticeably less work exploring the relationship between dialectical critical realism and qualitative research methods. This seems strange especially since the founder of the philosophy of critical realism, Roy Bhaskar, employs and develops a range of dialectical concepts in his later work in order to extend the main tenets of critical realism. The aim of this paper is to draw on Bhaskar's later work, as well as Marxism, to reorient a critical realist methodology towards a dialectical approach for qualitative research. In particular, the paper demonstrates how dialectical critical realism can begin to provide answers to three common criticisms made against original critical realist methodology: that the qualitative theory of causal powers and structures developed by critical realists is problematic; that critical realist methodology contains values which prove damaging to empirical research; and that critical realists often have difficulties in researching everyday qualitative dilemmas that people face in their daily lives.     

Improved bridge constructs for stochastic differential equations

We consider the task of generating discrete-time realisations of a nonlinear multivariate diffusion process satisfying an Itô stochastic differential equation conditional on an observation taken at a fixed future time-point. Such realisations are typically termed diffusion bridges. Since, in general, no closed form expression exists for the transition densities of the process of interest, a widely adopted solution works with the Euler–Maruyama approximation, by replacing the intractable transition densities with Gaussian approximations. However, the density of the conditioned discrete-time process remains intractable, necessitating the use of computationally intensive methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo. Designing an efficient proposal mechanism which can be applied to a noisy and partially observed system that exhibits nonlinear dynamics is a challenging problem, and is the focus of this paper. By partitioning the process into two parts, one that accounts for nonlinear dynamics in a deterministic way, and another as a residual stochastic process, we develop a class of novel constructs that bridge the residual process via a linear approximation. In addition, we adapt a recently proposed construct to a partial and noisy observation regime. We compare the performance of each new construct with a number of existing approaches, using three applications.     

The experience of sole mothers balancing paid work with care for a child with a disability

There are increasing numbers of families in Australia headed by sole parents, but little is known about the experiences of those who also care for a child with a disability. Additional caring responsibilities have previously been shown to impact on the work participation of parents. This study involved qualitative analyses of interview data conducted with sole mothers with school‐aged children with disability (N = 11). Thematic analysis revealed four themes that enabled and supported participation in the workforce: social support; managing appointments; characteristics of the workplace; and the role of the school. Results suggest the importance of practical help from family and friends in facilitating participation in paid employment. Additionally, the importance of flexible appointment scheduling on the part of service providers was highlighted, as well as the importance of workplace flexibility and supportive workplace cultures. Such factors were important in supporting sole mothers to balance work with care, with important implications for personal and family wellbeing.