Signal extraction goodness-of-fit diagnostic tests under model parameter uncertainty: Formulations and empirical evaluation

We present a time-domain goodness-of-fit (gof) diagnostic test that is based on signal-extraction variances for nonstationary time series. This diagnostic test extends the time-domain gof statistic of Maravall (2003 Maravall, A. (2003). A class of diagnostics in the ARIMA-model-based decomposition of a time series. Memorandum, Bank of Spain. Available at http://www.bde.es/servicio/software/tramo/diagnosticsamb.pdf [Google Scholar]) by taking into account the effects of model parameter uncertainty, utilizing theoretical results of McElroy and Holan (2009 McElroy, T., Holan, S. (2009). A local spectral approach for assessing time series model misspeci?cation. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 100:604–621.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We demonstrate that omitting this correction results in a severely undersized statistic. Adequate size and power are obtained in Monte Carlo studies for fairly short time series (10 to 15 years of monthly data). Our Monte Carlo studies of finite sample size and power consider different combinations of both signal and noise components using seasonal, trend, and irregular component models obtained via canonical decomposition. Details of the implementation appropriate for SARIMA models are given. We apply the gof diagnostic test statistics to several U.S. Census Bureau time series. The results generally corroborate the output of the automatic model selection procedure of the X-12-ARIMA software, which in contrast to our diagnostic test statistic does not involve hypothesis testing. We conclude that these diagnostic test statistics are a useful supplementary model-checking tool for practitioners engaged in the task of model-based seasonal adjustment.     

Gendered experiences of physical restraint on locked wards for women

Physical restraint is used in inpatient services for people with intellectual disabilities as a way of holding a person to avoid injury. This article uses data from an ethnographic study in a locked unit in the north of England to explore women’s experiences of physical restraint using a feminist disability studies analysis. Data consists of field notes as well as interviews with 16 of the women who had experienced restraint, and 10 staff who worked with them. The women gave insights into the gendered phenomenon of restraint in light of their past experiences of violence. The authors argue that restraint is used with women to encourage passivity at times when more relational and therapeutic methods could be used. The article offers recommendations for alternative strategies that services can encourage.     

Seeking Clarity and Confidence in the Divorce Decision-Making Process

There is a well-established literature dedicated to why couples divorce, transitions associated with divorce, and the impact of divorce on families. However, little is known about the divorce decision-making process. We conducted in-depth interviews with individuals who have recently considered divorce (n = 30) and asked specifically about the roles of 2 concepts in their decision-making process: clarity and confidence. Three major themes emerged from the data: (a) Clarity about a decision to divorce or stay married is desired, it fluctuates, and takes time to find; (b) pivotal moments can bring clarity; and (c) confidence (in the final decision) is desired. Clinical implications and directions for future research are discussed.     

Toddlers Involve Their Caregiver to Help Another Person in Need

Three experiments with 18‐ to 35‐month‐old children (n = 169) studied toddler–caregiver interactions when being confronted with another person in need. In particular, we explored whether toddlers would request their caregiver to help a needy other when they are not able to help themselves. Children observed another person who needed help to accomplish a task, but were either not able to provide help as the object was out of reach (Experiment 1) or because an obstacle prevented children from interacting with the other person (Experiments 2, 2b). The experiments revealed the same developmental trend with 2.5‐year‐olds selectively involving their caregiver to help the needy other. The results are interpreted in terms of toddlers’ motivation to see others helped and with respect to their developing ability to actively involve others to regulate their emotions.     

Living with the parents: the purpose of young graduates’ return to the parental home in England

Young graduates in England often return to the parental home after a period of living away during their university studies. Little is known, however, about why they return and how coresidence with parents fits within a life trajectory. This paper reports upon an in-depth cross-sectional qualitative study of young graduates’ coresidence with their parents. It identifies a five-part typology of the purpose of coresidence as perceived by the graduates: a base camp for exploration before settling into adulthood; a launch pad for careers; a savings bank, in particular for future property purchases; a refuge for respite and reflection; and a preferred residence, whether on account of comfort, cultural practice or to support parents. The paper further explores how far these purposes were associated in young adults’ accounts with social structures, individual agency or some combination of these. It concludes that the default understanding of graduates’ return and coresidence as a residual function when other options fail is insufficient. Such a generalisation obscures the different purposes which the return can enable; it overplays some notion of a broken biography rather than the positive contribution of coresidence to graduates’ trajectories towards adulthood and to their life experiences.     

Asking about the future: methodological insights from energy biographies

Temporality is fundamental to qualitative longitudinal (QLL) research, inherent in the design of returning to participants over time, often to explore moments of change. Previous research has indicated that talking about the future can be difficult, yet there has been insufficient discussion of methodological developments to address these challenges. This paper presents insights from the Energy Biographies project, which has taken a QLL and multimodal approach to investigating how everyday energy use can be understood in relation to biographical pasts and imagined futures. In particular, we detail innovative techniques developed within the project (e.g. SMS photograph activities) to elicit data on anticipated futures, in ways that engender thinking about participants’ own biographical futures and wider societal changes. We conclude by considering some of the significant benefits and challenges such techniques present. These methodological insights have a wider relevance beyond the substantive topic for those interested in eliciting data about futures in qualitative research.     

The increasing happiness of US parents

Previous research suggests that parents may be less happy than non-parents. We critically assess the literature and examine parents’ and non-parents’ happiness-trends using the General Social Survey (N = 42,298) and DDB Lifestyle Survey (N = 75,237). We find that parents are becoming happier over time relative to non-parents, that non-parents’ happiness is declining absolutely, and that estimates of the parental happiness gap are sensitive to the time-period analyzed. These results are consistent across two datasets, most subgroups, and various specifications. Finally, we present evidence that suggests children appear to protect parents against social and economic forces that may be reducing happiness among non-parents.     

Short Break and Respite Services for Disabled Children in England: Comparing Children's and Parents' Perspectives of Their Impact on Children

Researchers, health and social care workers often seek to understand the perspectives of children; but gathering views directly from children can present difficulties. Parents are often asked to provide accounts of children's feelings or opinions on the assumption that their proxy reports are accurate and unproblematic. This qualitative thematic analysis of open‐question responses from 352 parents and 73 disabled children examines their accounts of the impact of short break services on disabled children. Participants' perspectives differed; children tended to describe immediate outcomes such as enjoying activities and participation; parents acknowledged these, but focused on longer term developmental outcomes for children.     

Linking Local Food Systems and the Social Economy? Future Roles for Farmers' Markets in Alberta and British Columbia*

Often organized as grassroots, nonprofit organizations, many farmers' markets serve as strategic venues linking producers and consumers of local food while fulfilling multiple social, economic, and environmental objectives. This article examines the potential of farmers' markets to play a catalyst role in linking local food systems to the social economy in western Canada. We used the Delphi method of inquiry to solicit and synthesize perspectives on the future role of farmers' markets within local food systems and the social economy from farmers' market vendors, market managers, and policy and government representatives in each province. We found that negotiations over the definition of local food systems, the dynamics of supply and demand relationships, and perceptions of “authenticity” affect the positionality of farmers' markets in relation to other marketing channels within regional food systems. Stakeholders engaged in this Delphi inquiry strategized ways to scale up local food systems beyond current limits while also maintaining the “authentic experience” offered by farmers' markets that has helped to fuel increased consumer interest, demand, and growth. Results confirm the need for further investigation of the relationship between the social economy, infrastructure, and authenticity in the development of local food systems.