Vice versus virtue investing around the world

This paper assumes the role of advocatus diaboli by testing whether an investment in sin stocks can financially outperform an investment in socially responsible stocks. We create a set of global, regional, and domestic portfolios consisting of a large number of stocks belonging to what could be labeled as a sextet of sin: adult entertainment, alcohol, gambling, nuclear power, tobacco, and weapons. We assess the performance of sin stocks against well-known benchmarks, and rerun the identical assessment for socially responsible stocks. We find no compelling evidence that sin stocks, or socially responsible stocks outperform or underperform, and establish this result in several ways. Consistent with this finding, a hedge portfolio long in sin stocks and short in socially responsible stocks does not outperform the market, either. However, sin stocks are substantially tilted towards value, bear less market risk with an average beta below one, and are prone to momentum relative to socially responsible stocks.     

Geometric Anisotropic Spatial Point Pattern Analysis and Cox Processes

We consider spatial point processes with a pair correlation function, which depends only on the lag vector between a pair of points. Our interest is in statistical models with a special kind of ‘structured’ anisotropy: the pair correlation function is geometric anisotropic if it is elliptical but not spherical. In particular, we study Cox process models with an elliptical pair correlation function, including shot noise Cox processes and log Gaussian Cox processes, and we develop estimation procedures using summary statistics and Bayesian methods. Our methodology is illustrated on real and synthetic datasets of spatial point patterns.     

The Risk Perception Paradox—Implications for Governance and Communication of Natural Hazards

This article reviews the main insights from selected literature on risk perception, particularly in connection with natural hazards. It includes numerous case studies on perception and social behavior dealing with floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcano eruptions, wild fires, and landslides. The review reveals that personal experience of a natural hazard and trust—or lack of trust—in authorities and experts have the most substantial impact on risk perception. Cultural and individual factors such as media coverage, age, gender, education, income, social status, and others do not play such an important role but act as mediators or amplifiers of the main causal connections between experience, trust, perception, and preparedness to take protective actions. When analyzing the factors of experience and trust on risk perception and on the likeliness of individuals to take preparedness action, the review found that a risk perception paradox exists in that it is assumed that high risk perception will lead to personal preparedness and, in the next step, to risk mitigation behavior. However, this is not necessarily true. In fact, the opposite can occur if individuals with high risk perception still choose not to personally prepare themselves in the face of a natural hazard. Therefore, based on the results of the review, this article offers three explanations suggesting why this paradox might occur. These findings have implications for future risk governance and communication as well as for the willingness of individuals to invest in risk preparedness or risk mitigation actions.     

The Relationship Between Aversive Conditioning and Risk-avoidance in Gambling

This study investigated the relationship between aversive conditioning, heart rate variability suppression, behavioral activation system/behavioral inhibition system and risk-avoidance on the Iowa gambling task (IGT) in a nonclinical sample (29 male, 29 female, mean age = 20.7). A laboratory based Pavlovian aversive conditioning paradigm was used where a 1500 Hz tone (CS+) was followed by a burst of loud white noise (US), and a 850 Hz (CS−) tone was never followed by the US. In a subsequent extinction phase where the CS+ and CS− were presented without the US, conditioned skin conductance responses to the CS+ indicated aversive conditioning. The results showed that the participants who did not show aversive conditioning (N = 26) exhibited significantly less risk-avoidance compared to participants who did show aversive conditioning (N = 32). Regression analysis showed that among the study variables, only aversive conditioning contributed significantly to explaining variance in risk-avoidance. These results may have implications for understanding risk-taking in gambling in general, and may be a starting point understanding the role of aversive conditioning in the development and maintenance of gambling problems.     

Leitung mit Supervisionskompetenz

The author describes a position of a supervisor in a clinical institution, which he would have rejected some years ago??to adopt a management role as supervisor and to act mainly in the role of a supervisor. But the recent experiences have shown, that this may be possible and successful. This is illustrated by a case study.     

A Postmodern Critique of Societal Discourses of Male Violence in Interpersonal Family Relationships: A Balancing Act for Social Work

In recent years, treatments of family violence have tended to be built around conventional discourses suggesting that men are major initiators in instances of interpersonal violence. Utilizing a postmodernist analysis, we assess societal discourses that continue to give life to this narrow conceptualization of interpersonal violence. We also examine literature suggesting that both men and women resort to violence to resolve relationship difficulties and suggest that a more holistic and inclusive approach to understanding interpersonal violence is critical for social workers committed to social justice and a balanced understanding of the contextual nature of human problems.     

Rainfall variations and child mortality in the Sahel: results from a comparative event history analysis in Burkina Faso and Mali

Over the last 40 years, the Sahel has seen a long-term downward trend in rainfall. The importance of ecological variables as factors affecting child survival in rural subsistence societies has already been emphasized, but little empirical evidence has been gathered to support this. This paper presents a comparative event history analysis aimed at understanding how rainfall variations may influence child mortality in two neighbouring countries, Burkina Faso and Mali. These countries are similar in terms of population dynamics, economy, livelihood, child mortality and rainfall conditions (i.e. strong south–north decreasing rainfall gradient). Individual data for both countries came from two detailed nationally representative retrospective surveys conducted in 2000. Rainfall data for the 1960–1998 time period were obtained from the Climatic Research Unit. This study shows that child survival in each country is related to specific patterns of rainfall variation across livelihood regions, highlighting the complex nature of environmental causality of child mortality.     

A time-varying measurement error model for age of onset of a psychiatric diagnosis: applied to first depressive episode diagnosed by the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI)

A substantial degree of uncertainty exists surrounding the reconstruction of events based on memory recall. This form of measurement error affects the performance of structured interviews such as the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI), an important tool to assess mental health in the community. Measurement error probably explains the discrepancy in estimates between longitudinal studies with repeated assessments (the gold-standard), yielding approximately constant rates of depression, versus cross-sectional studies which often find increasing rates closer in time to the interview. Repeated assessments of current status (or recent history) are more reliable than reconstruction of a person's psychiatric history based on a single interview. In this paper, we demonstrate a method of estimating a time-varying measurement error distribution in the age of onset of an initial depressive episode, as diagnosed by the CIDI, based on an assumption regarding age-specific incidence rates. High-dimensional non-parametric estimation is achieved by the EM-algorithm with smoothing. The method is applied to data from a Norwegian mental health survey in 2000. The measurement error distribution changes dramatically from 1980 to 2000, with increasing variance and greater bias further away in time from the interview. Some influence of the measurement error on already published results is found.