Calculating the total vote where the district magnitude is greater than one: A test of some algorithms using British local election data

Electoral analysis using aggregate data relies on the availability of accurate voting statistics. One vital piece of information, often missing from official electoral returns, particularly British local government elections, is the total number of valid ballot papers. This figure is essential for the calculation of electoral turnout. When voters have a single vote and official information about the number of ballot papers issued is missing, a figure for the total vote can still be derived. However, local elections in Britain frequently use a system of multiple-member wards, where voters have as many votes as there are seats to be filled. In such cases, calculating the total vote and, hence, the turnout does present a real problem. It cannot be assumed that all voters will use their full quota of votes or that voters will cast a ballot in favour of a single party. This paper develops and tests diff erent algorithms for calculating the total vote in such circumstances. We conclude that the accuracy of an algorithm is closely related to the structure of party competition. The findings of this paper have a number of important implications. First, the difficulties in calculating the turnout in multiple-member wards are identified. This will inform the debate about public participation in the local electoral process. Second, the method for deriving a figure for the total vote has an important bearing on a number of other statistics widely employed in electoral analysis.     

NISO Webinar: “The Case of the Disappearing Journal: Solving the Title Transfer and Online Display Mystery” (November 10, 2010)

Abstract

In December 2012, Eric Hanson interviewed Christopher Cronin, director of technical services at the University of Chicago, about their participation as an RDA test partner and issues surrounding RDA training and implementation.     

Leaning into Browser Extensions

abstract

An array of browser extensions has been developed to help researchers locate full-text content, whether that full text is available in an institutional repository, on a publishers site, or in an open access journal. Examples of such browser extensions include Unpaywall, Kopernio, EZproxy tools, and Lean Library. This Balance Point column focuses on the growth of browser extensions, the need they are filling, and their adoption by libraries. Particular attention is paid to the Lean Library browser extension and the services offered by Lean Library. Drawing on the literature and interviews with librarians in the field, the advantages and disadvantages of browser extensions are addressed, as well as security concerns.     

A clarifying comparison of methods for controlling the false discovery rate

Traditional multiple hypothesis testing procedures fix an error rate and determine the corresponding rejection region. In 2002 Storey proposed a fixed rejection region procedure and showed numerically that it can gain more power than the fixed error rate procedure of Benjamini and Hochberg while controlling the same false discovery rate (FDR). In this paper it is proved that when the number of alternatives is small compared to the total number of hypotheses, Storey's method can be less powerful than that of Benjamini and Hochberg. Moreover, the two procedures are compared by setting them to produce the same FDR. The difference in power between Storey's procedure and that of Benjamini and Hochberg is near zero when the distance between the null and alternative distributions is large, but Benjamini and Hochberg's procedure becomes more powerful as the distance decreases. It is shown that modifying the Benjamini and Hochberg procedure to incorporate an estimate of the proportion of true null hypotheses as proposed by Black gives a procedure with superior power.     

An Ecological Model for Quantitative Risk Assessment for Schistosomiasis: The Case of a Patchy Environment in the Coastal Tropical Area of Northeastern Brazil

We developed a stochastic model for quantitative risk assessment for the Schistosoma mansoni (SM) parasite, which causes an endemic disease of public concern. The model provides answers in a useful format for public health decisions, uses data and expert opinion, and can be applied to any landscape where the snail Biomphalaria glabrata is the main intermediate host (South and Central America, the Caribbean, and Africa). It incorporates several realistic and case‐specific features: stage‐structured parasite populations, periodic praziquantel (PZQ) drug treatment for humans, density dependence, extreme events (prolonged rainfall), site‐specific sanitation quality, environmental stochasticity, monthly rainfall variation, uncertainty in parameters, and spatial dynamics. We parameterize the model through a real‐world application in the district of Porto de Galinhas (PG), one of the main touristic destinations in Brazil, where previous studies identified four parasite populations within the metapopulation. The results provide a good approximation of the dynamics of the system and are in agreement with our field observations, i.e., the lack of basic infrastructure (sanitation level and health programs) makes PG a suitable habitat for the persistence and growth of a parasite metapopulation. We quantify the risk of SM metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction and the time to metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction. We evaluate the sensitivity of the results under varying scenarios of future periodic PZQ treatment (based on the Brazilian Ministry of Health's plan) and sanitation quality. We conclude that the plan might be useful to slow SM metapopulation growth but not to control it. Additional investments in better sanitation are necessary.     

Industrial relations and adjustments to the crisis: A comparative micro‐statistical analysis of France and Great Britain

In this comparative study, the authors analyse the relationships between industrial relations and workforce or wage adjustments in response to the 2007–08 crisis, using two highly comparable establishment‐level surveys conducted in Great Britain (WERS) and France (REPONSE) in 2010–12. Notwithstanding contextual differences in the countries’ productive systems and the timing and impact of the crisis, the relationships between industrial relations and adjustment strategies appear to have been similar (trade union presence not preventing adjustments). Differences in industrial relations are therefore not found to provide an explanation for the different modes of adjustment observed at the macroeconomic level.     

Patterns of alcohol use and marijuana use among students at 2- and 4-year institutions

Objective: The objective of this study was to understand substance use patterns of alcohol, marijuana, and simultaneous alcohol and marijuana (SAM) use among 2- and 4-year college students. Participants: Participants were 526 young adults aged 18–23 (n?=?355 4-year students; n?=?171 2-year students) recruited from February 2015 to January 2016 who were participating in a larger longitudinal study. Methods: Latent class analysis (LCA) was used to identify past-month classes of alcohol, marijuana, and SAM use. Results: Among both 2- and 4-year students, a four-class solution yielded the best-fitting model, with 2-year classes tending to include greater marijuana use and less alcohol use and 4-year classes tending to include heavy alcohol use. Demographic characteristics were largely similar across classes. Conclusions: Classes of alcohol, marijuana, and SAM use differed by education status. Screening and prevention efforts for 4-year students may need to be tailored for the needs of 2-year students.     

'You cannot get enough of them!’ The rise (and fall) of complementary therapies in British nursing practice in the 1980s and 1990s

This paper examines the emerging use of complementary therapies in British nursing practice at the end of the twentieth century. Many nurses turned to complementary therapies as a means to provide a closer therapeutic relationship with their patients and this paper will establish how nurses were informed and empowered. The paper places complementary practices in the context of nursing developments in the closing decades of the twentieth century and concludes that the extent of the supporting networks that encouraged nurses to incorporate these therapies into their work was more significant than has been previously recognised and exemplifies a distinct period in the history of modern nursing.