The impact of the Gulf war on migration and remittances in Asia and the Middle East

The author discusses the impact of the 1990 Gulf war on the migrant worker populations in the region, with a focus on migration and remittances in Asia and the Middle East. Both immediate and long-term effects are considered. "From the perspective of foreign migrant communities living in the Gulf...the war...was much more of a disaster for Arabs than for Asians....Arab migrant populations...were dramatically affected by the Gulf crisis. In contrast, the Asian migrant community was largely concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the [United Arab Emirates] and remained relatively less affected by the crisis. Subsequent polarization in the Arab world gives Asian labor-exporting countries an unexpected opportunity to increase their share of Gulf labor markets still further in the coming years." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

RACE-OF-INTERVIEWER EFFECTS IN A PREELECTION POLL VIRGINIA 1989

All published preelection surveys of the 1989 Virginia gubernatorialcontest overestimated the vote share of the black candidateand eventual victor, Douglas Wilder. We offer a "social desirability"interpretation of the polls' inaccuracies and hypothesize thatclaiming support for Wilder was the socially desirable responsefor some whites, especially when the interviewer was black.We show a race-of-interviewer effect on the vote intention ofwhite respondents of 8–11 percentage points in a preelectionsurvey of Virginia voters. The effects were greatest among whiteDemocrats and among whites who were more uncertain of theirvote intention. We discuss the implications of these findingsfor race-of-interviewer research and for improving the accuracyof preelection forecasts in contests with black and white opposingcandidates.     

Migration,race and ethnicity, 1960-1980

"This article compares racial and ethnic patterns in interstate and interregional migration in the years 1960 to 1980.... This research looks at geographical assimilation--the extent to which patterns of migration and regional distribution of minority groups resemble those of whites. Attention is directed to United States-born Asian Americans, blacks, Hispanics, Native Americans and whites, and attempts to answer the following questions: 1) To what extent do the patterns of interstate migration of these groups resemble one another? 2) To what extent do the regional distributions and patterns of net regional migration of these groups resemble one another?" This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1988 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 54, No. 3, Fall 1988, p. 495).     

Capital accumulation,endogenous population growth,and Easterlin cycles

In this paper we attempt to explain the occurrence of population cycles in industrialised economies where the birth rate depends on the difference between the actual and the expected consumption rate. This model of an endogenously growing population brings together Easterlin's idea of an adapting aspiration level with the neoclassical optimal growth paradigm. It is shown that in this highly aggregated demo-economic system (i.e., without inclusion of the age structure of a population) swings both in the economic and demographic variables may exist. The reason behind this strange optimal behaviour is identified to be an intertemporal substitution effect between current and future levels of consumption.We wish to thank A. Novak for helpful assistance and an anonymous referee for useful comments. Financial support by the Austrian Science Foundation under contract No. P6601 is acknowledged.     

Reconceptualizing migration as a household phenomenon: outmigration from New York City by race and Hispanic origin

"This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analyzing migration as a household event and presents two public use microdata applications of this approach for out-migrants from New York City. The distribution of single- and multi-origin households by race and Hispanic origin permits a more rigorous analysis of household migration differentials....and the disaggregation of household members by migration status provides insight into the household outcomes of the migration process...." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Labour migration and the work permit system in the United Kingdom

"The aim of this paper is to examine the effects of the work permit today [in the United Kingdom], using official data. It first reviews the operation of the [labor migration] system and describes the main schemes incorporated. Then, it uses data for 1984-88 to describe the general characteristics of labor immigration through the schemes. Finally, by means of a small random sample of applications and issues, it presents details on particular aspects of the immigration. It demonstrates that current labour immigration through the system is selective: most of those entering with long-term permits are highly skilled, well paid, and moving within the internal labor markets of large transnational corporations." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Tearoom trade: A research update

Conclusion Like many studies of covert deviance, this paper is based upon a captive sample of persons who have come to the attention of law enforcement agencies. The existence of Laud Humphreys' research, however, makes possible a comparison of police generated data with data obtained through observations and interviews with unapprehended offenders. Because police observations were so detailed, a rare opportunity to replicate a qualitative study presented itself. This research largely substantiates the picture drawn by Humphreys in his classic study,Tearoom Trade: Impersonal Sex in Public Places. Consistent with his observations, most tearoom participants (a) communicate through non-verbal gestures and seldom speak, (b) do not associate outside the tearoom or attempt to learn one another's identity or exchange biographical information, (c) do not use force or coercion or attempt to involve youths or children, (d) are primarily heterosexual and married, (e) depart separately with the insertor leaving first, (f) commit their sex acts out of sight of the entrance and accidental exposure, (g) do not undress or engage in anal sex, (h) break off sexual contact when someone enters the washroom, (i) rarely approach straight men, (j) read and write sexually explicit homosexual graffiti, and (k) linger inside and outside the washroom for someone to appear. In addition, (1) fellatio is generally not reciprocated and fellators are usually older men; (m) most offenders are neat in appearance; (n) some engage in series and simultaneous encounters; (o) encounters are brief, usually not exceeding twenty minutes; and (p) few have criminal records with the exception of those previously convicted of similar offenses.The behavior of players reveals remarkable consistency over time, from community to community, and across national boundaries. Many men, the majority of them married and primarily heterosexual, continue to visit out-of-the-way public washrooms in search of fast, impersonal, and exciting sex despite the risk to family, friends, job, and reputation. Although shopping malls have usurped public parks as the favorite locale of tearoom participants, the basic rules of the game and profile of the players—as Humphreys contends—remain the same over time and place.     

Estimating fecundability from data on waiting times to first conception

"This article tests assumptions invoked in the demographic literature to estimate the population distribution of fecundability from data on waiting times to first conception. In continuous time, the key assumption is that waiting times are realizations from a mixture of exponentials distribution. In discrete time, the key assumption is that waiting times are realizations from a mixture of geometrics distribution. The [U.S.] Hutterite data analyzed by Sheps (1965) are consistent with this assumption. Various models, however, have one representation in mixture of exponentials form. A fundamental identification problem plagues the conventional estimation procedure. Our analysis calls into question the conventional practice of checking model specification by using goodness-of-fit tests. The practical importance of the identification problem in duration models is demonstrated."