A Quantitative Test of the Cultural Theory of Risk Perceptions: Comparison with the Psychometric Paradigm

This paper seeks to compare two frameworks which have been proposed to explain risk perceptions, namely, cultural theory and the psychometric paradigm. A structured questionnaire which incorporated elements from both approaches was administered to 129 residents of Norwich, England. The qualitative risk characteristics generated by the psychometric paradigm explained a far greater proportion of the variance in risk perceptions than cultural biases, though it should be borne in mind that the qualitative characteristics refer directly to risks whereas cultural biases are much more distant variables. Correlations between cultural biases and risk perceptions were very low, but the key point was that each cultural bias was associated with concern about distinct types of risks and that the pattern of responses was compatible with that predicted by cultural theory. The cultural approach also provided indicators for underlying beliefs regarding trust and the environment; beliefs which were consistent within each world view but divergent between them. An important drawback, however, was that the psychometric questionnaire could only allocate 32% of the respondents unequivocally to one of the four cultural types. The rest of the sample expressed several cultural biases simultaneously, or none at all. Cultural biases are therefore probably best interpreted as four extreme world views, and a mixture of qualitative and quantitative research methodologies would generate better insights into who might defend these views in what circumstances, whether there are only four mutually exclusive world views or not, and how these views are related to patterns of social solidarity, and judgments on institutional trust.     

Decision‐making in early clinical drug development

This paper illustrates an approach to setting the decision framework for a study in early clinical drug development. It shows how the criteria for a go and a stop decision are calculated based on pre‐specified target and lower reference values. The framework can lead to a three‐outcome approach by including a consider zone; this could enable smaller studies to be performed in early development, with other information either external to or within the study used to reach a go or stop decision. In this way, Phase I/II trials can be geared towards providing actionable decision‐making rather than the traditional focus on statistical significance. The example provided illustrates how the decision criteria were calculated for a Phase II study, including an interim analysis, and how the operating characteristics were assessed to ensure the decision criteria were robust. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Controlling type I error rates in multi-arm clinical trials: A case for the false discovery rate

Multi-arm trials are an efficient way of simultaneously testing several experimental treatments against a shared control group. As well as reducing the sample size required compared to running each trial separately, they have important administrative and logistical advantages. There has been debate over whether multi-arm trials should correct for the fact that multiple null hypotheses are tested within the same experiment. Previous opinions have ranged from no correction is required, to a stringent correction (controlling the probability of making at least one type I error) being needed, with regulators arguing the latter for confirmatory settings. In this article, we propose that controlling the false-discovery rate (FDR) is a suitable compromise, with an appealing interpretation in multi-arm clinical trials. We investigate the properties of the different correction methods in terms of the positive and negative predictive value (respectively how confident we are that a recommended treatment is effective and that a non-recommended treatment is ineffective). The number of arms and proportion of treatments that are truly effective is varied. Controlling the FDR provides good properties. It retains the high positive predictive value of FWER correction in situations where a low proportion of treatments is effective. It also has a good negative predictive value in situations where a high proportion of treatments is effective. In a multi-arm trial testing distinct treatment arms, we recommend that sponsors and trialists consider use of the FDR.     

Child protection training in sport‐related degrees and initial teacher training for physical education: an audit

This article reports on an online survey of child protection training for students on sport‐related and Initial Teacher Training Physical Education degrees, and on the views of recently graduated teachers of the usefulness of such training in their everyday work. The results indicate that child protection training is provided in most courses but in varying amounts. Respondents to the survey reported positively, in the main, about the effects of new requirements for teacher training (Every Child Matters: Change for Children, Department for Education and Skills, 2004). Reasons given for not including child protection in courses were: lack of time; the perceived vocational nature of the topic; lack of fit with course aims and objectives; lack of relevance; and the research rather than professional orientation of the course. Recently graduated teachers' views on their pre‐service child protection training differed from the claims made about this in the survey. In particular, they raised concerns about their lack of preparation for dealing with potential child protection situations. The article concludes that child protection training within sport‐related degrees is deficient in both consistency of delivery and in content, and that, in addition to preparing students to recognise signs and indicators of abuse, curricula should also address undergraduates' confidence and skills for responding to abuse in their everyday professional practice. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Role of Socialization,Effortful Control,and Ego Resiliency in French Adolescents' Social Functioning

The relations among effortful control, ego resiliency, socialization, and social functioning were examined with a sample of 182 French adolescents (14–20 years old). Adolescents, their parents, and/or teachers completed questionnaires on these constructs. Effortful control and ego resiliency were correlated with adolescents' social functioning, especially with low externalizing and internalizing behaviors and sometimes with high peer competence. Furthermore, aspects of socialization (parenting practices more than family expressiveness) were associated with adolescents' effortful control, ego resiliency, and social functioning. Effortful control and ego resiliency mediated the relations between parental socialization and adolescents' peer competence and internalizing problems. Furthermore, effortful control mediated the relations between socialization and adolescents' externalizing behavior. Findings are discussed in terms of cultural and developmental variation.     

Sub‐Saharan African Cotton Policies in Retrospect

Calls for liberalising cash‐crop sectors in sub‐Saharan Africa have been voiced for decades, yet the impact of reforms remains elusive in empirical studies. This article offers new opportunities for solving this problem by creating precise and consistent market organisation indices for 25 African cotton markets from 1961 to 2008. The aggregation of scores reveals interesting trends: markets are no more competitive today than in the late 1990s, 50% of production still originates from markets with fixed prices and reforms are giving rise to a new type of regulated market in both East and West Africa.     

Generating Ordered Families of Lorenz Curves by Strongly Unimodal Distributions

From any strongly unimodal density on the real line, it is possible to generate a one-parameter family of Lorenz curves. The resulting families of Lorenz curves are Lorenz ordered with respect to the indexing parameter. Symmetry of the unimodal density results in the generation of symmetric Lorenz curves. A related characterization of the normal distribution is presented.