Polyphasic sleep strategies improve prolonged sustained performance: A field study on 99 sailors

In situations where continuous prolonged work demands exist, the habitual nocturnal monophasic (6-8h duration) sleep pattern can rarely be accomplished, and performance effectiveness may sometimes be severely compromised by accumulation of sleep debt. Several studies have shown that naps can be disproportionately effective in recovering functioning during continuous work (CW).

In this study, sleep-wake patterns and their relationship to performance were studied for 99 sailors involved in solo and double-handed ocean sailing races (a model of a highly demanding CW situation). Most sailors spontaneously adopted multiple nap sleep-wake schedules and adapted without major difficulties to such polyphasic patterns. 66.5% had mean sleep episode durations (SEDs) ranging from 20 min to 2h. Overall mean Total Sleep Time (TST) per 24h was reduced from a baseline of 7.5 to 6.3h. Race performance correlated negatively and significantly with mean SEDs and TSTs. Best performance results were obtained by those sleeping for periods of between 20 min and 1 h and for a total of 4.5 to 5.5h of sleep per day.

The results are discussed together with several chronobiological, phylogenetic and experimental studies and issues, all of which suggest that adult humans may have a damped polyphasic sleep-wake tendency. It is also proposed that polyphasic sleep schedules could become promising and feasible solutions for the management of sleep requirements under prolonged CW situations.     

Agenda control in coalition formation

Theoretical models of government formation in political science usually assume that the head of state is non-strategic. In this paper, we analyze the power of an agenda setter who chooses the order in which players are recognized to form coalitions in simple games. We characterize those sets of players which can be imposed in the equilibrium coalition and show that the only decisive structures where the agenda setter can impose the presence of any minimal winning coalition are apex games, where a large player forms a winning coalition with any of the small players. Keywords: Government Formation, Agenda Control, Coalitional Bargaining, Finite Bargaining Rules. Received: 26 January 2001/Accepted: 31 July 2001     

A note on closure of the ILR and DLR classes under formation of coherent systems

In this paper, we give the closure of the class of increasing likelihood ratio (ILR) life distributions under the formation of certain coherent systems with independent and identically distributed components, and particularly in k-out-of-n systems. Some possible definitions of its dual class (DLR) are discussed and results about the closure are given. Furthermore, we include examples which show that these two aging classes are not closed under formation of special coherent systems. This work has been supported by Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnologia, Grants PB96-1105 and BFM2000-0362.     

Bayesian estimation of cognitive decline in patients with alzheimer's disease

Recently, there has been great interest in estimating the decline in cognitive ability in patients with Alzheimer's disease. Measuring decline is not straightforward, since one must consider the choice of scale to measure cognitive ability, possible floor and ceiling effects, between-patient variability, and the unobserved age of onset. The authors demonstrate how to account for the above features by modeling decline in scores on the Mini-Mental State Exam in two different data sets. To this end, they use hierarchical Bayesian models with change points, for which posterior distributions are calculated using the Gibbs sampler. They make comparisons between several such models using both prior and posterior Bayes factors, and compare the results from the models suggested by these two model selection criteria.     

Anti‐globalization movements and the European agenda

This article examines the relationship between the Europeanization process and the anti‐globalization agenda in Europe. Relying on the results of fieldwork research conducted since 2001 on the anti‐globalization demonstrations surrounding the European summits, it argues that these transnational protest movements are of a dual and, in part, contradictory nature. On the one hand, they have an agenda‐setting character, contributing to the formation of European public opinion. On the other hand, their influence in terms of agenda setting of European policy is constrained by their discourse style which bypasses or circumvents official discourse about European integration.     

Finding and fixing systems weaknesses: probabilistic methods and applications of engineering risk analysis.

Methods of engineering risk analysis are based on a functional analysis of systems and on the probabilities (generally Bayesian) of the events and random variables that affect their performances. These methods allow identification of a system's failure modes, computation of its probability of failure or performance deterioration per time unit or operation, and of the contribution of each component to the probabilities and consequences of failures. The model has been extended to include the human decisions and actions that affect components' performances, and the management factors that affect behaviors and can thus be root causes of system failures. By computing the risk with and without proposed measures, one can then set priorities among different risk management options under resource constraints. In this article, I present briefly the engineering risk analysis method, then several illustrations of risk computations that can be used to identify a system's weaknesses and the most cost-effective way to fix them. The first example concerns the heat shield of the space shuttle orbiter and shows the relative risk contribution of the tiles in different areas of the orbiter's surface. The second application is to patient risk in anesthesia and demonstrates how the engineering risk analysis method can be used in the medical domain to rank the benefits of risk mitigation measures, in that case, mostly organizational. The third application is a model of seismic risk analysis and mitigation, with application to the San Francisco Bay area for the assessment of the costs and benefits of different seismic provisions of building codes. In all three cases, some aspects of the results were not intuitively obvious. The probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) method allowed identifying system weaknesses and the most cost-effective way to fix them.     

New Zealand Consumption Equivalence Scales From Quasi-unit Record Data

This paper uses quasi-unit record data on expenditures and incomes of New Zealand households of different demographic profiles to estimate consumption equivalence scales which measure the relative levels of spending required by households of different composition to attain given levels of utility. The equivalence scales with respect to specific items of consumption, as well as total consumption, have been obtained from the parameters of the preference-consistent Extended Linear Expenditure System and a few alternative versions of a rank 3 complete demand system with demand shifters. Among the demographic variables included in the models, the type of housing tenure and the actual age of children have special relevance. For the sake of comparison, a few heuristic scales are also computed. The results are largely in line with those found in similar studies of Australia and New Zealand. The analysis is developed within the framework of hypothesized utility-maximizing behaviour of households.