The Function of Credibility in Information Processing for Risk Perception

This study examines how credibility affects the way people process information and how they subsequently perceive risk. Three conceptual areas are brought together in this analysis: the psychometric model of risk perception, Eagly and Chaiken's heuristic-systematic information processing model, and Meyer's credibility index. Data come from a study of risk communication in the circumstance of state health department investigations of suspected cancer clusters (five cases, N = 696). Credibility is assessed for three information sources: state health departments, citizen groups, and industries involved in each case. Higher credibility for industry and the state directly predicts lower risk perception, whereas high credibility for citizen groups predicts greater risk perception. A path model shows that perceiving high credibility for industry and state-and perceiving low credibility for citizen groups-promotes heuristic processing, which in turn is a strong predictor of lower risk perception. Alternately, perceiving industry and the state to have low credibility also promotes greater systematic processing, which consistently leads to perception of greater risk. Between a one-fifth and one-third of the effect of credibility on risk perception is shown to be indirectly transmitted through information processing.     

Noisy Winter: The DDT Controversy in the Years before Silent Spring

Abstract In this paper, we examine three unanticipated findings from a social constructionist analysis of popular media coverage of the pesticide DDT from the years 1944 to 1961. The first unanticipated finding was the early (1945) appearance of negative or cautionary claims in the media source examined, the New York Times. Second, while negative or cautionary claims about the pesticide did constitute a minority voice during this time period, it was nonetheless a persistent voice. The third unanticipated finding was the predominance of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the State Agricultural Experiment Stations among those claimsmakers initially cautioning potential users about unintended and potentially deleterious impacts. The concept of "routine monitoring mechanisms" is introduced to explain this third finding. We conclude by considering the potential impact of this coverage on the subsequent development of the controversy.     

A Case Study on the Informational Efficiency of Markets: The Market for Horse Racing in Australia

This paper describes a study of the informational efficiency of the thoroughbred horse racing market in Australia. It is based on the theory of stock market efficiency which explains the process by which information becomes reflected in share prices. In this paper, the theory is applied to the thoroughbred horse racing market to determine the predictive accuracy of alternative informative sources. The results obtained from the study are consistent with the underlying theory:(i) aggregated information (as reflected in a consensus of opinions) is a more accurate prediction of success than less information (as reflected in individual opinions), and;(ii) the most recent information (as reflected in race-time betting odds, known as starting prices) has greater predictive ability than less recent information (as reflected in an earlier consensus of opinions).The study examines predictive accuracy in a gambling context, but does not consider the profitability of alternative prediction processes.     

A simulation system for corporate planning

This paper describes the structure and use of a general purpose simulation package developed for the interactive construction of dynamic computer-based simulation models. The package consists of a system of computer programs written in the BASIC language for a Digital PDP 11/70 time-sharing computer.The framework upon which the package is based is essentially an amalgamation of the System Dynamics and Input-Output approaches to the modelling of complex organizations. Networks of levels and flows provide the basis for dynamic, modular representation, while matrix algebra features provide the basis for aggregational flexibility and the analysis of multi- product multi-process industrial systems.The package is designed to provide planning managers with the ability to construct flexible models, localized or ‘corporate’, financial or non-financial, without the need for any programming in the conventional sense. A flow diagram of the system to be modelled guides the model builder in responding to computer terminal prompts which determine the model structure as a set of programmed relationships. This in turn gives rise to a further series of prompts at the terminal for the entry of all data pertinent to the model. Model editing and computation then proceeds, with user interaction, if desired, for amendments, monitoring of computations, and report generation.Two specific applications of the package are discussed in the latter part of the paper, and sample output from runs of both of the resultant models is provided.     

An Easter Proximity Effect: Modelling and Adjustment

The timing of Easter Sunday varies from one year to the next and can affect time series data. To reveal the underlying movement of a time series, the date of Easter's occurrence and its impact on the time series have to be taken into account. New approaches are developed to model and remove the impact of Easter. The monthly Australian Total Retail Turnover series is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the modelling approaches.     

Barriers to Swift,Even Flow in the Internal Supply Chain of Perioperative Surgical Services Department: A Case Study*

This research analyzes the internal service supply chain of a perioperative surgical services department of a nonacademic community hospital using the theory of swift and even flow as a theoretical lens. Performance data were gathered using an in‐depth case study and it was determined that the swift and even flow constructs did affect flow speed and variance, but did not account for all the effects observed. To understand the need for departments to coordinate their efforts with each other and how this affected flow, further analysis was conducted using insights from Pagell's (2004) theory of internal integration and Gittell's (2002) research about coordinating mechanisms. The findings suggest the need to incorporate a variable measuring supply chain coordination into the theory of swift and even flow.     

Paper Versus Electronic Medical Records: The Effects of Access on Physicians' Decisions to Use Complex Information Technologies*

This study examines physicians' responses to complex information technologies (IT) in the health care supply chain. We extend individual‐level IT adoption models by incorporating a new construct: system accessibility. The main premise of the study is, when faced with a decision between alternate IT systems, individual users tend to select and make use of the technology or system that is most readily accessible. We discuss both physical and logical dimensions of accessibility as they relate to adoption of electronic medical records (EMR). Physical accessibility refers to the availability of computers that can be used to access EMR, while logical accessibility refers to the ease or difficulty of logging into the system. Using data from a survey of 199 physicians practicing in a large U.S. hospital, we show that, when deciding between the paper chart and EMR, accessibility is an important consideration in a physician's decision to use the system. Both dimensions of accessibility act as barriers to EMR use intentions through their indirect effect on physicians' perceptions of EMR usefulness and ease of use. Logical access also has a direct effect on EMR use intentions. We conclude that accessibility is an important factor that limits acceptance of complex IT such as EMR.     

Parental education, time in paid work and time with children: an Australian time-diary analysis

How does parental education affect time in the paid workforce and time with children? Potentially, the effects are contradictory. An economic perspective suggests higher education means a pull to the market. Human capital theory predicts that, because higher education improves earning capacity, educated women face higher opportunity costs if they forego wages, so will allocate more time to market work and less to unpaid domestic labour. But education may also exercise a pull to the home. Attitudes to child rearing are subject to strong social norms, and parents with higher levels of education may be particularly receptive to the current social ideal of attentive, sustained and intensive nurturing. Using data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Time‐use Survey 1997, this study offers a snapshot of how these contradictory pulls play out in daily life. It finds that in Australia, households with university‐educated parents spend more daily time with children than other households in physical care and in developmental activities. Sex inequality in care time persists, but fathers with university education do contribute more time to care of children, including time alone with them, than other fathers. Mothers with university education allocate more daily time than other mothers to both childcare and to paid work.     

Issues of shared parenting of LGBTQ children and youth in foster care: preparing foster parents for new roles

Foster parents have increasingly assumed new and challenging roles during the past decade. Meeting the developmental, attachment, and grieving needs of children and youth in out of home care is challenging by itself, but can become even more difficult with the issues that arise when the child is lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or questioning (LGBTQ). Preservice and in-service foster parent training programs can strengthen shared parenting skills by focusing on the universal critical issues of safety, well being, and permanence for children and youth in foster care. This article will focus on these skill areas: (1) sharing parenting to promote healthy growth and development of LGBTQ youth in foster care, (2) threats to safety of LGBTQ youth in foster care, and (3) general challenges and strategies for preparing foster parents of LGBTQ youth to build support systems.