An Objective Bayesian Criterion to Determine Model Prior Probabilities

We discuss the problem of selecting among alternative parametric models within the Bayesian framework. For model selection problems, which involve non‐nested models, the common objective choice of a prior on the model space is the uniform distribution. The same applies to situations where the models are nested. It is our contention that assigning equal prior probability to each model is over simplistic. Consequently, we introduce a novel approach to objectively determine model prior probabilities, conditionally, on the choice of priors for the parameters of the models. The idea is based on the notion of the worth of having each model within the selection process. At the heart of the procedure is the measure of this worth using the Kullback–Leibler divergence between densities from different models.     

How to Silence One's Conscience: Cognitive Defenses Against the Feeling of Guilt

This work presents an analysis of the feeling of guilt and in particular of the cognitive defenses against it. It shows how the need to avoid or mitigate the feeling, with the suffering implied, affects the perception and judgment of oneself and others. It is in fact claimed that to copy with their guilt people try to alter the appraisal processes implied by the emotion. Once described the main cognitive components of the feeling of guilt, an analysis is offered of the interventions of the cognitive defenses on such components, to alter the original appraisal processes underlying the feeling.     

Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios

This study examines the sensitivity of future long-term care demand and expenditure estimates to official demographic projections in four selected European countries: Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. It uses standardised methodology in the form of a macro-simulation exercise and finds evidence for significant differences in assumptions about demographic change and its effect on the demand for long-term care, and on relative and absolute long-term care expenditure. It concludes that mortality-rate assumptions can have a considerable influence on welfare policy planning. Relative dispersion between country-specific and Eurostat official estimates was found to be higher for the United Kingdom and Germany than for Italy and Spain, suggesting that demographic projections had a greater influence in those countries.

Regulating the delivery of cash‐for‐care payments across Europe

The article aims to understand how governments across Europe have modified the regulation of the delivery of cash‐for‐care schemes (CfCs) to dependent older people since the beginning of the century. In our terminology, the regulation of the CfCs delivery defines the norms, rules, and practices that public actors adopt to manage how beneficiaries can use the benefits. To discuss the regulation of CfCs delivery, we employ an original framework that take three analytical dimensions into account: the degrees of freedom in benefits' utilization (“CfCs utilization” dimension), the provision of information/orientation/advices/counselling to older people and families (“professional support” dimension), and the relationship between the delivery of CfCs and the delivery of the other publicly funded long‐term care inputs (“care system” dimension). The analysis adopts a comparative perspective, looking at six countries—Italy, Austria, the Netherlands, France, Germany, and England. Among various findings, the main one consists in showing that there has been a shared and increased interest in consolidating the regulation of CfCs delivery. This trend has been mostly directed towards the new policy aim of strengthening the professional support, a goal underestimated in the past, when this dimension was not a major topic of both debate and practice concerning CfCs across Europe.     

EM-Type algorithms for heavy-tailed logistic mixed models

This paper aims at evaluating different aspects of Monte Carlo expectation – maximization algorithm to estimate heavy-tailed mixed logistic regression (MLR) models. As a novelty it also proposes a multiple chain Gibbs sampler to generate of the latent variables distributions thus obtaining independent samples. In heavy-tailed MLR models, the analytical forms of the full conditional distributions for the random effects are unknown. Four different Metropolis–Hastings algorithms are assumed to generate from them. We also discuss stopping rules in order to obtain more efficient algorithms in heavy-tailed MLR models. The algorithms are compared through the analysis of simulated and Ascaris Suum data.     

Restarting “Normal” Life after Covid-19 and the Lockdown: Evidence from Spain,the United Kingdom,and Italy

Social Indicators Research - In this article, we examine the expectations of the economic outlook, fear of the future, and behavioural change during the first Covid-19 wave, for three European...     

Does control concentration affect board busyness? International evidence

Journal of Management and Governance - Previous literature suggests that shareholders can concentrate control without cash flow rights, creating incentives to expropriate firm resources. However,...     

Transnationalisation,Public Communication and Active Citizenship. The Emergence of a Fragmented and Fluid European Public Sphere

This paper is focused on the emergence of the European public sphere debate. This discussion has become more and more prominent between scholars of European Studies who have given it both normative and empirical attention. This is due to a variety of reasons, but in particular the increase in research about the legitimacy of European integration, which has been the subject of a wide debate since at least the beginning of the 1990s. Firstly, the article critically assesses the normative arguments that have supported the development of the European public sphere, by focusing on the social, political and cultural dimensions of European integration. After having assessed this debate and underlined current challenges emerged in light of recent events (such as the euro‐crisis, the rise of euroscepticism and the rise in far right movements), the article then introduces the empirical research on the europeanisation of the public sphere, by looking at the development of an agenda that has more and more concentrated on the fragmentation and fluidity of such construct. This discussion is key to introduce the final part of the article, which focuses on the role of civil society in the broader European constituency and in the public sphere. The article highlights some of the ambiguities inherent to the current research agenda, by calling for a more comprehensive approach to study active citizenship in Europe that departs from a consideration of the NGOs activists as the main locus of analysis.