Interpolation models with multiple hyperparameters

A traditional interpolation model is characterized by the choice of regularizer applied to the interpolant, and the choice of noise model. Typically, the regularizer has a single regularization constant , and the noise model has a single parameter . The ratio / alone is responsible for determining globally all these attributes of the interpolant: its complexity, flexibility, smoothness, characteristic scale length, and characteristic amplitude. We suggest that interpolation models should be able to capture more than just one flavour of simplicity and complexity. We describe Bayesian models in which the interpolant has a smoothness that varies spatially. We emphasize the importance, in practical implementation, of the concept of conditional convexity when designing models with many hyperparameters. We apply the new models to the interpolation of neuronal spike data and demonstrate a substantial improvement in generalization error.     

Bayesian Inference for Contact Networks Given Epidemic Data

Abstract. In this article, we estimate the parameters of a simple random network and a stochastic epidemic on that network using data consisting of recovery times of infected hosts. The SEIR epidemic model we fit has exponentially distributed transmission times with Gamma distributed exposed and infectious periods on a network where every edge exists with the same probability, independent of other edges. We employ a Bayesian framework and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration to make estimates of the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters. We discuss the accuracy of the parameter estimates under various prior assumptions and show that it is possible in many scientifically interesting cases to accurately recover the parameters. We demonstrate our approach by studying a measles outbreak in Hagelloch, Germany, in 1861 consisting of 188 affected individuals. We provide an R package to carry out these analyses, which is available publicly on the Comprehensive R Archive Network.     

Maritime labour,transnational political trajectories and decolonization from below: the opposition to the 1935 British Shipping Assistance Act

This article uses a discussion of struggles over attempts by the National Union of Seamen to exclude seafarers from the maritime labour market in the inter‐war period to contribute to debates at the intersection of maritime spaces and transnational labour geographies (cf. Balachandran 2012; Høgsbjerg 2013). By focusing on struggles engendered by the British Shipping (Assistance) Act of 1935, I explore some of the transnational dynamics through which racialized forms of trade unionism were contested. I argue that the political trajectories, solidarities and organizing spaces constructed by the alliances formed to oppose the effects of the act shaped articulations of ‘decolonization from below’ (James 2015). In this way, engaging with the political trajectories and activities of activists from organizations like the Colonial Seamen's Association can reveal new ways of understanding the spatial politics of decolonization and new accounts of who or how such processes were articulated and contested. I conclude the article by arguing that engagement with these struggles can help assert the importance of forms of subaltern agency in shaping processes of decolonization.     

CAN MONETARY POLICY INFLUENCE LONG‐TERM INTEREST RATES? IT DEPENDS

Can monetary policy influence long‐term interest rates? Studies that have tackled this question using vector autoregressions (VARs) generally find that monetary policy's influence on long‐term interest rates is small and often statistically insignificant. Other studies, however, using a single‐equation approach, have found a robust relationship. Our study sheds new light on this question by estimating the effect of monetary policy shocks on long‐term interest rates in a VAR with long‐run monetary neutrality restrictions. We find that U.S. monetary policy can strongly influence long‐term interest rates, but only when the Federal Reserve has inflation‐fighting credibility and is able to firmly anchor inflationary expectations. (JEL E43, E51, E52)     

Assessing Adoptions in Difficulty

Correspondence to Dr David Howe, Lecturer in Social Work, University of East Anglia, School of Economic and Social Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ. Summary Although most adoptions are judged a success, a small numberof families and their adopted children run into behaviouraland relationship difficulties. The Post-adoption Centre, London,is a specialist agency which works with a number of client groups,including adopters and their families. The assessments madeby the Centre's counsellors of adoptive families were analysed.Two dimensions defined the counsellors' assessments. One recognizeda strong developmental perspective and owed much to the recentwork of David Brodzinsky. The other emphasized the complex emotionalinteractions that can take place between parents and child.Because of its originality and ability to refine the qualityof assessments, the analysis concentrates on the second dimension.When the developmental and interactional perspectives are combined,five assessment themes emerge. These are described and illustratedwith case examples.     

SOME FACTORS AFFECTING MOBILITY IN THE LABOR MARKET FOR ACADEMIC ECONOMISTS

This study examines the effects of publication, geographic preferences, and institutional preferences on the mobility of academic economists during the period 1955-69. Using a sample of 3813 economists who published at least one article during this period, the analysis indicates that publications do promote upward mobility but to a limited extent. The number of publications rather than their quality promotes mobility, but movement occurs primarily within well-defined geographic regions. The market for academic economists appears to be strongly segmented along geographic lines. Moves within geographic regions tend to be to departments of equal or lesser prestige than the department from which the individual has moved.     

Changes in the Canadian Business and Legal Elites, 1870–1970*

Cet article examine les origines sociales et les activités de deux élites canadiennes au dix-neuvième et vingtième siècle, à savoir l'élite des affaires et du droit. Il fournit une explication provisoire des transformations qui ont eu lieu quant à l'aecès à la richesse, à l'autorité, au prestige et à l'influence au cours des cent dernières années. En tant que travail d'exploration, cet essai révèle le besoin d'aborder l'histoire de la stratification au Canada d'une façon jusqu'à maintenant négligée, à savoir par l'analyse historique des institutions jouant un rôle dans la stratification. This paper examines the social origins and activities of two Canadian elites, those of business and law, in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. It attempts a provisional explanation of the changes in access to wealth, authority, prominence, and influence that have occurred in the last hundred years. As an explanatory study, this paper suggests the need for an approach to the history of stratification in Canada that has not received much attention heretofore; namely, the historical analysis of stratifying institutions.     

ON CAPITAL, TIME AND THE NEOCLASSICAL PARABLES

Many of the paradoxes in capital theory arise from seeking a purely 'physical' measure for the aggregate stock of capital. Several recent papers made it clear that heterogeneous capital outfits cannot be measured by a single aggregate index which is independent of the rate of interest. This paper defines and proves the general properties of an index of capital intensity — the degree of 'roundaboutnes'— which admits both the physical and the time dimensions of capital. A modified form of the neoclassical parables is defined and proved to be universally valid despite reswitching.