Ethnic economies, affirmative action, and mining cultural capital

If the goal of affirmative action is to make the marketplace a more congenial place for women and minority persons to improve their economic situation, then its champions and detractors are bound to be disappointed. Only a comparatively small number of persons will ever benefit materially from such policies, and they are not likely to view their accomplishment as requiring them to give something back to the larger community or group in whose name the assistance was provided. An affirmative action plan organized around practices common to “ethnic economies,” on the other hand, would spread the benefit and the responsibility for an individual person's material success to a bigger and more inclusive community or ethnic group.     

The Willingness to State an Opinion: Inequality,Don't Know Responses,and Political Participation

Most explanations of inequality in political participation focus on costs or other barriers for those with fewer economic, educational, and “cognitive” resources. I argue, drawing on Pierre Bourdieu's work on “political competence,” that social position in the form of income also structures political participation through differences in the sense that one is a legitimate producer of political opinions. I test whether income differences in participation persist net of costs by examining nonparticipation in a setting in which barriers to participation are low: answering political survey questions. Lower‐income people are more likely than others to withhold political opinions by saying “don't know” net of differences in education, “cognitive ability,” or engagement with the survey exercise. Further, political “don't know” rates predict voting rates, net of other predictors. Efforts to democratize participation in American politics must attend not only to the costs of involvement but also to class‐based differences in individuals' relationship to political expression itself.     

Changing Childrearing Beliefs Among Indigenous Rural‐to‐Urban Migrants in El Alto,Bolivia

Sociologists have long noted that childrearing shapes young people's life chances. Worldwide, rural‐to‐urban migration is growing, yet we know little about whether or how migrants adopt new childrearing beliefs during this rapid social transformation. Using interviews with 63 parents and ethnographic observation at a public school, I examine how rural‐to‐urban migration affects the childrearing beliefs of indigenous peasants who move to the city of El Alto, Bolivia. Many migrants reject rural childrearing's reliance on corporal punishment and limited verbal communication, instead embracing more open communication, limited physical punishment, and parent–child trust. Urban organizations and social ties expose parents to a new childrearing model, and parents find this model credible when they observe that it buffers children from urban dangers that threaten young people's mobility chances. Adopting urban childrearing ultimately entails accepting an underlying model of children's agency, wherein children need internal motivation instead of external impulsion. This case shows that individuals’ childrearing beliefs are more malleable than previous sociological studies suggest. I close with policy implications for parental education and child well‐being initiatives.     

Using video and dialogue to generate pedagogic knowledge: teachers,learners and researchers reflecting together on the pedagogy of social research methods

Developments in pedagogical knowledge in the teaching of social research methods have largely been generated through teachers reflecting on their practice. This paper presents an alternative approach to generating data through reflective dialogue between researchers, teachers and learners. The approach incorporates elements of video stimulated recall and reflective dialogue within focus group interviewing. The rationale and affordances are discussed in relation to the goals of discussing teachers’ pedagogical decision-making and learners’ experience of, and response to, various pedagogical practices. The context is a study of capacity-building short courses in advanced social science research methods, specifically courses on: multi-modal analysis, computer-assisted qualitative data analysis software, multi-level modelling, and systematic review. The paper examines the methodological challenges of capturing the everyday realities of methods classrooms for teachers and learners and the affordances of using dialogue on observed teaching sessions to gain further insight into each other’s thinking and action. It concludes with lessons learned about methodological and pedagogical processes and an argument about the value of bringing methods and standpoints together in creative dialogue.     

The Economics of Density: Evidence From the Berlin Wall

This paper develops a quantitative model of internal city structure that features agglomeration and dispersion forces and an arbitrary number of heterogeneous city blocks. The model remains tractable and amenable to empirical analysis because of stochastic shocks to commuting decisions, which yield a gravity equation for commuting flows. To structurally estimate agglomeration and dispersion forces, we use data on thousands of city blocks in Berlin for 1936, 1986, and 2006 and exogenous variation from the city's division and reunification. We estimate substantial and highly localized production and residential externalities. We show that the model with the estimated agglomeration parameters can account both qualitatively and quantitatively for the observed changes in city structure. We show how our quantitative framework can be used to undertake counterfactuals for changes in the organization of economic activity within cities in response, for example, to changes in the transport network.     

The Strategy‐Focused Factory in Turbulent Times

Few unfocused factories outperform competitors, but focus is elusive because the environment is constantly evolving and this requires changes to a factory's key tasks. So how can focus be achieved and sustained? We present insights derived from an historical analysis of the German Hewlett‐Packard server plant which went through a series of focus changes over the years. Using this example, we provide clues for the right timing of focus changes and discuss critical structural and infrastructural changes required during the focus transitions, as well as cross‐functional coordination and leadership challenges. Our assertion is that production operations constitute a system that can adapt to disruptive change by using the levers of manufacturing policies to stay focused on a limited but absolutely essential task which creates a strategic advantage.     

Forecasting before,during, and after recession with singular spectrum analysis

The aim of this research is to apply the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) technique, which is a relatively new and powerful technique in time series analysis and forecasting, to forecast the 2008 UK recession, using eight economic time series. These time series were selected as they represent the most important economic indicators in the UK. The ability to understand the underlying structure of these series and to quickly identify turning points such as the on-set of the recent recession is of key interest to users. In recent years, the SSA technique has been further developed and applied to many practical problems. Hence, these series will provide an ideal practical test of the potential benefits from SSA during one of the most challenging periods for econometric analyses of recent years. The results are compared with those obtained using the ARIMA and Holt–Winters models as these methods are currently used as standard forecasting methods in the Office for National Statistics in the UK.     

Modeling U‐Shaped Exposure‐Response Relationships for Agents that Demonstrate Toxicity Due to Both Excess and Deficiency

Essential elements such as copper and manganese may demonstrate U‐shaped exposure‐response relationships due to toxic responses occurring as a result of both excess and deficiency. Previous work on a copper toxicity database employed CatReg, a software program for categorical regression developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, to model copper excess and deficiency exposure‐response relationships separately. This analysis involved the use of a severity scoring system to place diverse toxic responses on a common severity scale, thereby allowing their inclusion in the same CatReg model. In this article, we present methods for simultaneously fitting excess and deficiency data in the form of a single U‐shaped exposure‐response curve, the minimum of which occurs at the exposure level that minimizes the probability of an adverse outcome due to either excess or deficiency (or both). We also present a closed‐form expression for the point at which the exposure‐response curves for excess and deficiency cross, corresponding to the exposure level at which the risk of an adverse outcome due to excess is equal to that for deficiency. The application of these methods is illustrated using the same copper toxicity database noted above. The use of these methods permits the analysis of all available exposure‐response data from multiple studies expressing multiple endpoints due to both excess and deficiency. The exposure level corresponding to the minimum of this U‐shaped curve, and the confidence limits around this exposure level, may be useful in establishing an acceptable range of exposures that minimize the overall risk associated with the agent of interest.     

Stochastic Counterfactual Risk Analysis for the Vulnerability Assessment of Cyber‐Physical Attacks on Electricity Distribution Infrastructure Networks

In December 2015, a cyber‐physical attack took place on the Ukrainian electricity distribution network. This is regarded as one of the first cyber‐physical attacks on electricity infrastructure to have led to a substantial power outage and is illustrative of the increasing vulnerability of Critical National Infrastructure to this type of malicious activity. Few data points, coupled with the rapid emergence of cyber phenomena, has held back the development of resilience analytics of cyber‐physical attacks, relative to many other threats. We propose to overcome data limitations by applying stochastic counterfactual risk analysis as part of a new vulnerability assessment framework. The method is developed in the context of the direct and indirect socioeconomic impacts of a Ukrainian‐style cyber‐physical attack taking place on the electricity distribution network serving London and its surrounding regions. A key finding is that if decision‐makers wish to mitigate major population disruptions, then they must invest resources more‐or‐less equally across all substations, to prevent the scaling of a cyber‐physical attack. However, there are some substations associated with higher economic value due to their support of other Critical National Infrastructures assets, which justifies the allocation of additional cyber security investment to reduce the chance of cascading failure. Further cyber‐physical vulnerability research must address the tradeoffs inherent in a system made up of multiple institutions with different strategic risk mitigation objectives and metrics of value, such as governments, infrastructure operators, and commercial consumers of infrastructure services.