Functional Autoregression for Sparsely Sampled Data

We develop a hierarchical Gaussian process model for forecasting and inference of functional time series data. Unlike existing methods, our approach is especially suited for sparsely or irregularly sampled curves and for curves sampled with nonnegligible measurement error. The latent process is dynamically modeled as a functional autoregression (FAR) with Gaussian process innovations. We propose a fully nonparametric dynamic functional factor model for the dynamic innovation process, with broader applicability and improved computational efficiency over standard Gaussian process models. We prove finite-sample forecasting and interpolation optimality properties of the proposed model, which remain valid with the Gaussian assumption relaxed. An efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm is developed for estimation, inference, and forecasting, with extensions for FAR(p) models with model averaging over the lag p. Extensive simulations demonstrate substantial improvements in forecasting performance and recovery of the autoregressive surface over competing methods, especially under sparse designs. We apply the proposed methods to forecast nominal and real yield curves using daily U.S. data. Real yields are observed more sparsely than nominal yields, yet the proposed methods are highly competitive in both settings. Supplementary materials, including R code and the yield curve data, are available online.     

Conflict and Cooperation in Diverse Workgroups

This article reviews research examining the influence of diversity on conflict and cooperation within the context of the workplace. In particular, we describe how heterogeneity in surface characteristics, such as race and gender, as well as deeper characteristics, such as affect, experience, and knowledge, relate to key workgroup processes and outcomes. Of particular interest is the disparate strength and directionality of the effects reported in the literature. In an effort to provide clarity to the confusion, we emphasize the roles of group longevity and the type of diversity being examined. In addition, we recommend greater specificity with respect to the particular group processes and outcomes being examined.     

Determinants of the Safety Performance of Private Multi-storey Residential Buildings in Hong Kong

Given the high population and development density in Hong Kong, building failures can result in catastrophic consequences. It is thus worthwhile identifying those dilapidated buildings, and this explains why the Hong Kong government has considered launching a mandatory building inspection scheme in the city. Apart from the measurement of building safeness, however, it is equally important to explore the major determinants of the safety performance of buildings. Such information can help the government and other related organizations to rationalize their subsidies offered for building improvement and to make more informed strategies of urban regeneration in Hong Kong. To this end, the safety performance of 429 private multi-storey residential buildings was measured in this study using the Building Safety and Conditions Index developed by The University of Hong Kong. It was then followed by an explanatory analysis which found that older buildings were less safe than large, modern buildings. More importantly, the co-existence of a property management agent and a statutory owners’ association delivered the best building safety performance, and in this respect was the optimum building management regime for private multi-storey buildings in Hong Kong. These findings pose significant policy implications for building safety and urban regeneration in Hong Kong.     

Reducing unemployment? Examining the interplay between active labour market policies

Active labour market policies (ALMP) are important tools that welfare states utilize to influence the labour market. This study analyses the macroeconomic effects of different types of ALMP spending on aggregate unemployment rates, and especially if there is evidence of interdependencies between policies. The types of policies scrutinized are public employment services (PES), training programs, public job creation and subsidized employment, where the PES is singled out as a crucial factor that moderates the effects of other types of labour market programs. The study examines 19 welfare states between 1985 and 2013, using error correction modelling to separate between short‐ and long‐term effects. The results indicate that PES, training and subsidized employment reduce unemployment in the short‐run, whereas PES and wage subsidies are associated with reduced unemployment when considering long‐term effects. However, PES is found to have indirect effects on other policy types and increased spending on PES is shown to reinforce long‐term effects of training programs.     

For love and money: Navigating values at the antiques roadshow event

Antiques Roadshow Events are held in historic locations across the United Kingdom. On site, experts evaluate objects brought in by attendees, who are often cast as passive recipients, while edited highlights make up the long-running BBC TV program. Through Collaborative Event Ethnography at one Roadshow Event we show how object stories are navigated through “value talk” between attendees and experts in front of live audiences. Value is not a measurement but a dimension of the thing and its context. Stories and money are both integral in understanding worth, and final valuations are only partially shaped by given expertise.     

Selection,Optimization, and Compensation: Strategies to Maintain,Maximize, and Generate Resources in Later Life in the Face of Chronic Illnesses

This qualitative study of 45 older adults examines how they allocate their resources in the face of chronic health conditions. Participants were recruited from 2 senior centers and interviewed about their repertoire of activities, any changes in those activities in later life, and meanings they ascribed to those changes. The Selection, Optimization, and Compensation model guided our analysis and interpretation of participants' responses. The findings demonstrate the complexity of participants' responses to age-related changes, particularly in how they adapted and negotiated both their perception and life goals when faced with changing social landscapes. We discuss some implications and nuances of our findings.     

Culture,Place of Origin,and Service Delivery for Latino Older Adult Immigrants: The Case of Puerto Rican Older Adults

ABSTRACT

A conceptual model for the design and implementation of effective social services for Latino older adult immigrants in the United States is proposed in this article. Built on the stage-of-migration framework (Drachman, 1992 Drachman, D. 1992. A stage-of-migration framework for service to immigrant populations. Social Work, 37: 68–72. [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), the model presented shows how the premigration service experience of Latino older adults can be used as a basis for service design and implementation in the country of immigration. The case of Puerto Rican older adult immigrants is used to illustrate how the model can be applied to understand present service utilization and develop future programs that are useful and culturally sensitive for Latino older adult immigrants.     

The Intergenerational Transmission of Financial Stress and Relationship Outcomes

Numerous studies have focused on the intergenerational transmission of poverty, financial stress, and family functioning. Other research has shown how financial stressors can predict various family processes, including parent–child interactions, family conflict, and couple communication, and relationship outcomes, including marital stability and satisfaction. This study shows continued evidence that financial stress from the male and female partner's family of origin may predict marital dissatisfaction using dyadic data techniques. Also, an exploration of indirect paths also found that the presence of current financial stress partially mediates these associations.