Households,Families and Prospective Economic Mobility in Mexico

The study analyzed poverty as a function of households’ demographic composition using a longitudinal random sample of 4268 urban and rural households that were followed-up from 2005/6 to 2009/12 in Mexico to estimate short-term changes in living conditions. Well-being was measured as the dwelling unit’s number of rooms, water source, sanitary services, garbage disposal, and fuel. Mobility paths included not poor–not poor, poor–poor, not poor–poor, and poor–not poor. Independent variables included household composition, family characteristics, residential changes, schooling, and occupation. Female headship and older adults negatively impacted poverty, whereas economic dependents may be negatively or positively associated. Fertility incentives for low-income populations are not advisable. Working-age adults contribute only if income-generating opportunities exist locally.     

A hierarchical model for ordinal matrix factorization

This paper proposes a hierarchical probabilistic model for ordinal matrix factorization. Unlike previous approaches, we model the ordinal nature of the data and take a principled approach to incorporating priors for the hidden variables. Two algorithms are presented for inference, one based on Gibbs sampling and one based on variational Bayes. Importantly, these algorithms may be implemented in the factorization of very large matrices with missing entries.     

The Lac‐Mégantic Derailment,Corporate Regulation,and Neoliberal Sovereignty

On July 6, 2013, Montreal, Maine, and Atlantic railcar 5017 hauling 72 tanker cars of Bakken crude oil derailed over the town of Lac‐Mégantic, Quebec. The town erupted in a fiery inferno as 5,560,000 liters of highly flammable Bakken crude oil exploded over the town, killing 47 people and contaminating 558,000 tons of soil and local waterways. While Montreal, Maine, and Atlantic Rail Chairman Edward Burkhardt initially blamed the derailment on the lone engineer and local firefighters, this study shows how Transport Canada and the rail industry undermined regulatory and safety measures for several years before the derailment. This study uses a Foucauldian theoretical perspective to conceptualize and explain a new political mentality that transfers existing state regulatory authority to the corporate sector. This new mentality, neoliberal sovereignty, is composed of sovereign and neoliberal logics that monopolize “correct” trajectories of human economic development. This absolute market mentality merges with state sovereignty and eliminates existing safety and regulation frameworks to pursue unregulated corporate profits. Le 6 juillet 2013, un train de 72 wagons‐citernes transportant du pétrole brute Bakken a déraillé de la ligne de chemin de fer de la Montréal, Maine et Atlantique, dans la ville de Lac‐Mégantic au Québec. La ville c'est transformé en véritable enfer, alors que 5 560 000 litre de pétrole brute Bakken très inflammable ont fait explosé la ville, tuant quarante‐sept personnes et contaminant 558 000 tonnes d'eaux et du sol de Lac‐Mégantic et ses environs. Alors que le président de la MMA, Edward Burkhart, a d'abord blâmé l'ingénieur et le service d'incendie local, les études montrent que Transport Canada et l'industrie ferroviaire ont amoindrit les mesures de réglementation et de sécurité plusieurs années avant le déraillement. Cette étude utilise une perspective théorique foucauldienne pour conceptualiser et expliquer une nouvelle mentalité politique qui transfère l'autorité de régulations gouvernementales existantes au secteur des entreprises. Cette nouvelle mentalité, souveraines et néo‐libérale, est composé de logique souveraines et néo‐libérales qui monopolise les trajectoires « respectables » de développement économique humain. Cette mentalité de marché absolu fusionne avec la souveraineté de l'État et élimine les cadres de sécurité et les réglementations existantes pour les bénéfices des entreprises non réglementaires.     

Ex Ante Project Evaluation and the Complexity of Early Decision-Making

This paper looks beyond more traditional evaluation activities to focus primarily on evaluation up front. It suggests that the early appraisal of an investment case or a project should apply essentially the same evaluation criteria that will be used in ex post evaluation, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project outcome. However, the initial plan might be altered as result of subsequent analysis, assessment, negotiation, positioning, and the exercise of power. The last part of this paper presents an empirical study of 23 projects, which examines the complexity of processes that occur in the idea- and decision phases.     

Is diversity in capabilities desirable when adding decision makers?

When the benefit of making a correct decision is sufficiently high, even a slight increase in the probability of making such a decision justifies an increase in the number of decision makers. Applying a standard uncertain dichotomous choice benchmark setting, this study focuses on the relative desirability of two alternatives: adding individuals with capabilities identical to the existing ones and adding identical individuals with mean-preserving capabilities that depend on the states of nature. Our main result establishes that when the group applies the simple majority rule, variability in the capabilities of the new decision makers under the two states of nature, which is commonly observed in various decision-making settings, is less desirable in terms of the probability of making the correct decision.     

Spurred to Action or Retreat? The Effects of Reception Contexts on Naturalization Decisions in Los Angeles1

Undocumented immigration has been linked to a wave of anti‐immigrant legislation during the early 1990s. California led the way by passing Proposition 187, which many suspect led legal immigrants to naturalize. No research has confirmed this suspicion. I argue that the years before, during, and after the legislation’s passage and the strength of the labor market represent two contexts of reception in which immigrants reside, which determine naturalization decisions. Event history models show that California’s naturalization rates dramatically increased after the legislation’s passage, a pattern that is most pronounced among Latinos, while rates declined during difficult times, a pattern more pronounced among Asians. Thus, Latinos’ naturalization rates are affected more by the state policy climate, while Asians rates are affected more by long‐term economic health.     

The ensemble Kalman filter is an ABC algorithm

The ensemble Kalman filter is the method of choice for many difficult high-dimensional filtering problems in meteorology, oceanography, hydrology and other fields. In this note we show that a common variant of the ensemble Kalman filter is an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm. This is of interest for a number of reasons. First, the ensemble Kalman filter is an example of an ABC algorithm that predates the development of ABC algorithms. Second, the ensemble Kalman filter is used for very high-dimensional problems, whereas ABC methods are normally applied only in very low-dimensional problems. Third, recent state of the art extensions of the ensemble Kalman filter can also be understood within the ABC framework.     

4-Evening-Questions: Eine einfache Technik mit tiefgreifender Wirkung

The effect of a positive day reflection as a technique of positive psychology has been found repeatedly. The qualitative study is based on a sample of 74 participants and shows which kind of experiences people make during and after this exercise. For this purpose, participants were instructed to reflect their day based on four specific questions (4-Evening-Questions) every evening over a period of two weeks. Subsequently, individual experiences were collected and analyzed qualitatively. The results show that the exercise leads to a sensitization of perception, a change in the interpretation of situations as well as in one’s own actions.