金融周期、金融波动与中国经济增长——基于省际面板门槛模型的研究

本文应用面板门槛模型,研究了2005-2017年间我国31个省（市、自治区）金融波动对经济增长的影响。研究发现,随着金融周期所处阶段的变化,金融波动对经济增长会产生显著的非对称性双重门槛效应,主要体现为如下两点：首先,金融周期处于膨胀期、平稳期和萧条期时金融波动对经济增长会产生负向影响,但从影响系数值的大小来看,处于膨胀期时最大,是后两者的2倍之多,处于平稳期时最小且并不显著;其次,分区域的稳健性检验表明,金融发展水平高的区域双重门槛值出现得早,且两个门槛值间的区间要比金融发展水平低的区域宽28%。这些结论说明,经济增长对于金融波动的容忍弹性会随着金融周期所处的阶段而变化,金融发展水平的提高会放大经济增长对金融波动的容忍区间,但也会加速金融周期处于膨胀期时爆发金融危机的可能性,这使得当前我国存在着进一步发展金融水平和严控金融风险的矛盾,对此本文也提出了相应的政策建议。     

Policies for Recruiting Talented Professionals from the Diaspora: India and China Compared

Despite the continuous asymmetrical power relations between the Global North and South, the “global race for talent” is no longer a privilege enjoyed only by developed countries. Comparative analysis of policy content and effectiveness has attracted increasing interest. The examination of policy initiatives resulting in return migration of highly‐skilled migrants from the Global North to the Global South, however, remains inadequate. In this article, we provide a comparative analysis of policies targeting high‐level Chinese and Indian professionals including full‐time returnees. Two key differences in policy instruments and outcomes in the two countries are identified and they have implications for migration policies in other countries in the Global South and North.     

ROUND GIVING: A FIELD EXPERIMENT ON SUGGESTED DONATION AMOUNTS IN PUBLIC‐TELEVISION FUNDRAISING

Direct‐mail fundraisers commonly provide a set of suggested donation amounts to potential donors, in addition to a write‐in option. Standard economic models of charitable fundraising do not predict an impact of suggested amounts on charitable giving. However, our field experiments on direct‐mail solicitations to over 10,000 members of a public television station tell a different story. We find that changing one of the suggested amounts in an ask string from $100 to $95 reduces the number of gifts greater than or equal to $90 by more than 30%. This contrasts with our finding that in three independent comparisons, increasing the entire vector of suggested amounts by 20%–40% reduces the probability of giving by approximately 15%, with little effect on the average size of the gift. Both manipulations lead to a larger proportion of write‐in donations, even as they reduce the number of total gifts. We propose a simple behavioral theory to explain the data: many donors prefer to give round numbers, and donors incur a cognitive cost when choosing to give a nonsuggested amount. (JEL C9, H4)     

Measuring ambiguity preferences: A new ambiguity preference survey module

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - Ambiguity preferences are important to explain human decision-making in many areas in economics and finance. To measure individual ambiguity preferences, the...     

Some implications of common consequences in lotteries

This work studies the implications of some aspects of preferences toward risk in the choice between two binary lotteries exhibiting a common consequence. The results obtained are then applied to two different problems: the choice between two risky challenges characterized by different rewards in the case of success and different probabilities of success and the choice between self-protection and self-insurance in the presence of the risk of incurring financial loss.

     

Resolving Rabin’s paradox

We present a theoretical model of Rabin’s famous calibration paradox that resolves confusions in the literature and that makes it possible to identify the causes of the paradox. Using suitable experimental stimuli, we show that the paradox truly violates expected utility and that it is caused by reference dependence. Rabin already showed that utility curvature alone cannot explain his paradox. We, more strongly, do not find any contribution of utility curvature to the explanation of the paradox. We find no contribution of probability weighting either. We conclude that Rabin’s paradox underscores the importance of reference dependence.

     

Quality of Life Enhancement Research Program: Lessons Learned

The attempted Quality of Life Enhancement program appeared to be a novel method for creating a symbiotic and sustainable relationship between a large Southeastern university and local nursing home and assisted living facilities (ALF), through which ALF residents would attend university arts and sporting events. During implementation, it was discovered that this project was unsustainable, undesired, unneeded by many care centers, difficult to implement, and required a dedicated and specialized staff. After attempting to enroll 14 local care facilities, only 2 were interested in becoming involved and produced 5 eligible participants. During the program itself, coordination with facilities and residents was difficult to maintain and unique transportation and accommodation needs were challenging to overcome. Finally, data collection was time consuming and generally unfruitful. Ultimately the project was discontinued after a year of attempted recruitment and implementation of inclusive changes to protocol. While creating an ongoing relationship with local care facilities and local universities may enhance opportunities for residents and research into important areas, such relationships take time, effort, and specialized staff to maintain.     

Experiential Logic in the Transformation of Contemporary China’s Social Governance*

How does Chinese society maintain its orderly operation and show stability and harmony to the utmost while China rapidly transforms its economic system and international circumstances become increasingly complicated? This is an important question that this essay tries to answer, and the analysis mainly involves the exploratory practice of the transformation of Chinese social governance. This exploratory practice is a process through which China constantly breaks through the traditional blockades of vested interests, overcomes newly formed challenges, and forms a new Chinese-style “one axis and multiple components” pattern of social governance during its rapid re-establishment of both social relationship structure and social psychology order on the unbalanced and insufficient conditions of development within its vast territory. During this process, the constant return to the CPC’s mass line, as well as the “mechanism of reversed transmission of pressure,” the “anticipation-led mechanism” and the “mechanism of turning crisis into opportunity” that the CPC has improved during its long-term revolutionary struggles and its deepening of reform and opening-up, has played an important part. The simplistic duplication of Western theoretical analytic paradigms cannot explain the experiential mechanism for the transformation of social governance, which is peculiar to China. The creation of research framework of “system and life” is just an effort for comparison and dialogues with Western classical theories. It is not only helpful for the development of sociology about Chinese transformation, but will provide new knowledge for worldwide social transformation.     

清代西藏政教合一制时期噶厦与达赖喇章经济关系

西藏封建领主经济源于吐蕃奴隶制崩溃后,历经僧俗领主结合形成地方割据势力。元朝在此基础上分封始推行领主土地占有制。至清朝确立三大领主土地占有制,实行以达赖喇章和噶厦组成政教合一体制,加强喇章在政府中的权势。清以中央集权制将喇章的政治、经济纳入噶厦内,实施政治上统一经济上一体化。     

Every Minute Counts: Using Process Improvement and Performance Feedback to Improve Patient Flow in an Emergency Department

Prolonged emergency department (ED) visits are associated with a number of adverse outcomes for patients as well as lower patient satisfaction scores and increased costs. Several factors that influence the length of ED visits are out of the control of hospital employees, but some opportunities exist to improve performance. For this study, the ED department of a 150-bed hospital in the southeastern United States wanted to improve door-to-discharge time. To do so, a subprocess of door-to-discharge time was targeted, door-to-order. After analyzing the process, the team created standard orders for the 10 most common presenting conditions in the ER with preapproval, allowing nurses to submit the orders without the provider first visiting the patient. Following the process change, daily feedback was added to increase utilization of the preapproved orders. Reductions in door-to-order times and door-to-discharge were observed and patient satisfaction remained stable. Implications for future research in this area are discussed.