log-logistic survival estimation based on failure-censored data

Approximations of the Bayesian estimators of the survival function based on the censored data of the log-logistic distribution are obtained under squared-error and log-odds squared-error loss functions. A numerical example is presented. Through a Monte Carlo simulation study, the behavior of the approximations found by Tierney & Kadane and Lindley are compared with a method suggested by Weiss & Howlader.     

Socialization of emotion: Pathway to preschoolers' emotional and social competence

Aspects of 47 preschoolers'emotional competence—their patterns of emotional expressiveness and reactions to others' emotion displays—were observed in two settings, with mother and with peers, and their general social competence was rated by their preschool teachers. Intrapersonal and interpersonal (i.e., socialization correlates of children's emotional competence were identified, and a causal model incorporating direct and indirect influences on social competence was evaluated. Maternal patterns of expressiveness, reactions to children's emotion displays, and self-reported affective environment were associated with children's emotional competence in the preschool. Children's emotional competence with mother predicted their emotional competence in the preschool somewhat less strongly, suggesting that emotional competence may differ according to the interpersonal relationship studied. Taken as a whole, findings reassert the importance of the domain of emotional expression to the development of social competence.Reprint requests can be sent to the author, Department of Psychology, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030. Grateful acknowledgment goes to the mothers and children who so clearly expressed and reacted to emotions; thanks also are due to Christine Alban, Joanne Ayyash, Michael Casey, Elizabeth Couchoud, Huynh Dung, Merlina Hemingway, Soueang Lay, Vanna Nguyen, Emilianne Slayden and Kimberly Sproul, as well as the director and teachers of the Project for the Study of Young Children. An earlier version of this material was presented at the 1991 Biennial Meetings of the Society for Research in Child Development, Seattle, WA. University support from Grants #2-10150, 2-10176 and 2-10073 also made the research possible.     

Values and Vegetarianism: An Exploratory Analysis1

The American diet has changed substantially over the last few decades. These changes provide a test for social theory and have substantial effects on the demand for various food products, thus impacting U.S. agriculture. In this paper a rapidly growing dietary choice—vegetarianism—is explored. Prevalence of various forms of vegetarianism is estimated in a representative sample of a suburban population and factors that influence choice of a vegetarian diet are examined. About 7 percent of the sample report they are vegetarians. The prevalence of vegetarianism is not influenced by age, gender, or education, but individuals holding traditional values are less likely to be vegetarian than others. There also is some evidence mat individuals holding altruistic values are more likely than others to be vegetarians.     

Modeling for Risk Assessment of Neurotoxic Effects

The regulation of noncancer toxicants, including neurotoxicants, has usually been based upon a reference dose (allowable daily intake). A reference dose is obtained by dividing a no-observed-effect level by uncertainty (safety) factors to account for intraspecies and interspecies sensitivities to a chemical. It is assumed that the risk at the reference dose is negligible, but no attempt generally is made to estimate the risk at the reference dose. A procedure is outlined that provides estimates of risk as a function of dose. The first step is to establish a mathematical relationship between a biological effect and the dose of a chemical. Knowledge of biological mechanisms and/or pharmacokinetics can assist in the choice of plausible mathematical models. The mathematical model provides estimates of average responses as a function of dose. Secondly, estimates of risk require selection of a distribution of individual responses about the average response given by the mathematical model. In the case of a normal or lognormal distribution, only an estimate of the standard deviation is needed. The third step is to define an adverse level for a response so that the probability (risk) of exceeding that level can be estimated as a function of dose. Because a firm response level often cannot be established at which adverse biological effects occur, it may be necessary to at least establish an abnormal response level that only a small proportion of individuals would exceed in an unexposed group. That is, if a normal range of responses can be established, then the probability (risk) of abnormal responses can be estimated. In order to illustrate this process, measures of the neurotransmitter serotonin and its metabolite 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid in specific areas of the brain of rats and monkeys are analyzed after exposure to the neurotoxicant methylene-dioxymethamphetamine. These risk estimates are compared with risk estimates from the quantal approach in which animals are classified as either abnormal or not depending upon abnormal serotonin levels.     

A Process for Incorporating Comparative Risk into Environmental Policymaking in Louisiana

The goal of Louisiana's 1990–1991 comparative risk project, also called the Louisiana Environmental Action Plan (LEAP), was to incorporate risk assessment into state environmental planning and policymaking. Scientists, government officials, and citizens were brought together to estimate the relative risk to human health, natural resources, and quality of life posed by 33 selected environmental issues. The issues were then ranked according to their relative estimated risks. It was hoped that this ranking of "comparative risks" would enable state policymakers to target the most important environmental problems and allocate scarce public resources more rationally and efficiently. As a result of the project, the governor issued an Executive Order forming a permanent Public Advisory Committee to continue this type of comparative risk assessment in Louisiana.