Auswirkungen von Macht auf das ��berleben in Extremsituationen: Ein Vergleich der Titanic und Lusitania Schiffskatastrophen

Comparing the Titanic and Lusitania disaster the impact of financial and physical power as well as the emergence of social norms on survival during life-and-death situations is analyzed. Despite the fact that some maritime disasters have become famous, a quantitative understanding of survival in life-and-death situations is still lacking. In a quasi-natural experiment multivariate probit estimations are conducted based on publicly available data. The paper suggests that in life-and-death situations differences in time restrictions are crucial. When time is scarce individual self-interested fight-or-flight behavior will predominate and result in a stronger competition for survival. In contrast, altruism and adherence to social norms emerge when there is sufficient time to reflect on the event and circumstances: Social norms require time to evolve, and they loose against physical strength in a shorter window of opportunity.     

世界各国聚焦氢能源经济

氢是宇宙中最丰富的元素，地球上分布着大量的氢，其来源丰富。氧还是元素周期表中最轻的一个元素，与其他物质相比，具有较高的重量比能量。氢的燃烧产物是水，非常清洁，不会对环境造成污染。因此人们对氢能源的开发与利用也产生了极大的兴趣。     

Votes,Favors, Toys,and Ideas: The Effect of Resource Characteristics on Power in Exchange Networks

Abstract

The goal of this research is to understand how resource characteristics influence the development of power in exchange networks. Transferability and duplicability are identified as fundamental resource characteristics that have not been examined systematically in prior social exchange research. Varying resource transferability and duplicability alters the mechanisms that produce power and determine which positions in a network have a power advantage. To predict where power will develop, I rely on existing measures for previously studied resources and introduce relevant principles of network structure for resources that have not been studied before. This theoretical logic is supported by a series of simulated exchange networks that apply behavioral principles observed in prior experimental research to the exchange of a broader variety of resources than previously considered. Results indicate how the pattern of power use in a network is contingent upon the type of resource being exchanged.     

Resilience in the Face of Disasters: Bridging Micro- and Macro-Perspectives

This paper discusses the use of risk and resilience theory to understand how individuals and communities respond to natural disasters that present ongoing developmental challenges to personal and collective well-being. In the past two to three decades, mental health workers have developed numerous disaster relief strategies; while economists have become expert at estimating risk. These develops are explored.     

The Concept of Ecological Validity: What Are Its Limitations and Is It Bad to Be Invalid?

The concept of ecological validity has played an important role in research on perceptual development. The limitations of this concept are discussed and illustrated with examples from research on the development of intersensory perception. By itself the concept of ecological validity fails to provide objective criteria for experimental design, but together with more traditional bottom‐up methodological approaches it can be used in a convergent operations manner to enrich our understanding of perceptual development.     

The medium-term currency outlook

The article examines the experience of the major international currencies over the period since 1953 and assesses their prospects in the early 1980s. It summarizes the historical background, drawing a distinction between the Bretton Woods arrangement, when the world operated under a notional fixed exchange rate system, and the post 1971 experience which has involved a good deal of ‘dirty floating’ in the absence of any formal system. The paper focuses on the factors which influence exchange rate movements, and examines the practical uses of the analytical tools available, assessing the value, and possible misuse, of exchange rate forecasts in the decision-making process of the Long Range Planner. The author draws certain conclusions about economic policy and the international monetary system and offers some thoughts about the implications of the European Monetary System.     

Leaving Home for College: Expectations for Selective Reconstruction of Self

This paper describes how 23 primarily upper-middle-class high school seniors anticipated identity changes as they prepared to leave home for college. The transition from high school to college is a period of “liminality” during which students are structurally in between old and new statuses. We discuss how students anticipated change, planned to affirm certain of their identities, imagined creating new identities, and contemplated discovering unanticipated identities. Such interpretive effort must be understood in the context of the ambivalence they felt about leaving home and achieving independence. The data also provoke discussion of how social class membership might be implicated in people's ability to control identity change as they move through the life course.     

Defining attributes for scorecard construction in credit scoring

In many domains, simple forms of classification rules are needed because of requirements such as ease of use. A particularly simple form splits each variable into just a few categories, assigns weights to the categories, sums the weights for a new object to be classified, and produces a classification by comparing the score with a threshold. Such instruments are often called scorecards. We describe a way to find the best partition of each variable using a simulated annealing strategy. We present theoretical and empirical comparisons of two such additive models, one based on weights of evidence and another based on logistic regression.