Bayesian statistical inference for start-up demonstration tests with rejection of units upon observing d failures

This paper is concerned with Bayesian estimation and prediction in the context of start-up demonstration tests in which rejection of a unit is possible when a pre-specified number of failures is observed prior to obtaining the number of consecutive successes required for acceptance of the unit. A method for implementing Bayesian inference on the probability of success is developed for use when the test result of each start-up is not reported or even recorded, and only the number of trials until termination of the testing is available. Some errors in the related literature on the Bayesian analysis of start-up demonstration tests are corrected. The method developed in this paper is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method incorporating data augmentation, and it additionally enables Bayesian posterior inference on the number of failures given the number of start-up trials until termination to be made, along with Bayesian predictive inferences on the number of start-up trials and the number of failures until termination for any future run of the start-up demonstration test. An illustrative example is also included.     

Starting Behind: A Comparative Analysis of the Academic Standing of Students Entering Charter Schools*

Objectives. The purpose of this study is to assess if students enter charter schools at an academic disadvantage compared to students who make other types of school‐choice decisions, such as transferring between district schools, from a charter to a district school, or staying in the same school. We assess the demographic and academic characteristics of students prior to choosing to attend a charter school in comparison to students who made other types of school‐choice decisions and broaden the operational definition of a “disadvantaged” student when exploring differences between charter and district students to include academic achievement prior to entering a school. Methods. The analysis is conducted with student‐level panel data and a progressive series of ANCOVA models that were estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. This methodology allows for a comparison of the mean differences in academic achievement among students who made different types of school‐choice decisions while controlling for student‐level covariates. Results. Students who transferred from district to charter schools had the lowest levels of prior academic achievement compared to students who made other types of choice decisions. Conclusions. When Arizona charter authorizers face the deluge of renewal decisions that are approaching, the quality of education available to the next generation of charter school students is at stake. Renewal decisions will impact what choices are available going forward and, given the comparative academic disadvantage of charter school students prior to entering, those decisions should take into consideration the starting point for students entering charter schools.     

Hearing the child

Given that in our view the child has a fundamental right to be heard in all collective deliberative processes determining his or her future, we set out, firstly, what is required of such processes to respect this right – namely that the child's authentic voice is heard and makes a difference – and, secondly, the distance between this ideal and practice exemplified in the work of child welfare and child protection workers in Norway and the UK, chiefly in their display of an instrumental attitude to children's views.     

IT'S WHAT YOU SAY,NOT WHAT YOU PAY: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF MANAGER‐EMPLOYEE RELATIONSHIPS IN OVERCOMING COORDINATION FAILURE

We study manager‐employee interactions in experiments set in a corporate environment where payoffs depend on employees coordinating at high effort levels; the underlying game being played repeatedly by employees is a weak‐link game. In the absence of managerial intervention subjects invariably slip into coordination failure. To overcome a history of coordination failure, managers have two instruments at their disposal: increasing employees' financial incentives to coordinate and communication with employees. Synthesizing methods drawn from psychology and economics, we quantify the impact of specific types of communication on workers' effort levels and manager's profits. This methodology allows us to rigorously compare the efficacy of communication and direct incentives in an environment where both are available. We find that communication is a more effective tool than incentive changes for leading organizations out of performance traps. Examining the content of managers' communication, the most effective communication strategy is quite simple: specifically request a high effort, point out the mutual benefits of high effort, and imply that employees are being paid well. (JEL: C92, D23, J31, L23, M52)     

INCENTIVE DESIGN UNDER LOSS AVERSION

Compensation schemes often reward success but do not penalize failure. Fixed salaries with stock options or bonuses have this feature. Yet the standard principal‐agent model implies that pay is normally monotonically increasing in performance. This paper shows that, under loss aversion, there will be intervals over which pay is insensitive to performance, with the use of carrots but not sticks frequently optimal, especially when risk aversion is low and reference income is endogenous. A further benefit of capping losses, for example through options, is to discourage reckless behavior by executives seeking to resurrect their fortunes. (JEL: F3, F4)     

Learning by doing: the case of administrative policy transfer in China

This article explores of the role of policy transfer in facilitating the rise and consolidation of the ‘Reform and Open Door Policy' in China. It builds upon the seminal Dolowitz and Marsh [Dolowitz, D., and D. Marsh. 1996. “Who Learns What From Whom: A Review of the Policy Transfer Literature.” Political Studies 44: 343–357; Dolowitz, D., and D. Marsh. 2000. “Learning from Abroad: The Role of Policy Transfer in Contemporary Policy-Making.” Governance 13 (1): 5–23] framework to provide an examination of processes of administrative policy transfer which it argues are broadly indicative of the dynamics of change underpinning the incremental process of reform. It is observed that the reforms under study have not been characterized by rational policy design underpinned by evidence-based policy-making in which issues of cultural assimilation were emphasized. Rather, the implementation process itself has been used to affect processes of adaptation. Policy transfer in China can best be described as learning by doing.     

Impact of an Overt Response System on Staff Performance and Maintenance of Computer-Based Instruction

Interactive Computer Based Instruction (CBI) systems involve teaching strategies to facilitate greater response opportunities during training in an effort to improve learner performance. The current study investigated the effect of online staff training videos with and without overt response requirements on posttest and maintenance test scores across six block-randomized instructional modules for four employees of a university located in the southeastern region of the United States. The overt response consisted of multiple-choice questions administered throughout select teaching modules using an alternating treatment design. Findings suggest that learning occurred as a result of the CBI training; however, the effectiveness of the overt response system varied across individuals, with no discernible differentiation between learning gains associated with response requirements. Other areas of research for expanding the efficacy of CBI and overt response systems are highlighted.     

A Comparative Pharmacokinetic Estimate of Mercury in U.S. Infants Following Yearly Exposures to Inactivated Influenza Vaccines Containing Thimerosal

The use of thimerosal preservative in childhood vaccines has been largely eliminated over the past decade in the United States because vaccines have been reformulated in single‐dose vials that do not require preservative. An exception is the inactivated influenza vaccines, which are formulated in both multidose vials requiring preservative and preservative‐free single‐dose vials. As part of an ongoing evaluation by USFDA of the safety of biologics throughout their lifecycle, the infant body burden of mercury following scheduled exposures to thimerosal preservative in inactivated influenza vaccines in the United States was estimated and compared to the infant body burden of mercury following daily exposures to dietary methylmercury at the reference dose established by the USEPA. Body burdens were estimated using kinetic parameters derived from experiments conducted in infant monkeys that were exposed episodically to thimerosal or MeHg at identical doses. We found that the body burden of mercury (AUC) in infants (including low birth weight) over the first 4.5 years of life following yearly exposures to thimerosal was two orders of magnitude lower than that estimated for exposures to the lowest regulatory threshold for MeHg over the same time period. In addition, peak body burdens of mercury following episodic exposures to thimerosal in this worst‐case analysis did not exceed the corresponding safe body burden of mercury from methylmercury at any time, even for low‐birth‐weight infants. Our pharmacokinetic analysis supports the acknowledged safety of thimerosal when used as a preservative at current levels in certain multidose infant vaccines in the United States.